油料期货

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油脂油料产业日报-20250829
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 11:21
1. Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a sideways adjustment. After briefly breaking below 4,500 ringgit, they gradually declined and tested the support at the 20 - day moving average of 4,400 ringgit. If it can find support here, it may stop falling. Fundamentally, the production growth is lower than the export growth, which could support the futures to return above 4,500 ringgit. With the potential bullish impact of limited inventory increase at the end of August, there is a chance for a sideways upward trend. The view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and it's crucial to watch if it can hold at 4,400 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are also in a sideways adjustment. After breaking below the 20 - day moving average, there is downward pressure, and it is expected to seek support around 9,200 yuan and then stabilize. After this correction and effectively standing firm, with the boost of the recovery of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures may gradually start a sideways upward trend. After returning above 9,500 yuan and standing firm, there is a chance to follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view is also near - term weak and long - term strong [3]. Soybean Oil - International vegetable oils have been falling continuously (the end of the fuel consumption peak season has dragged down the vegetable oil market). CBOT soybean oil has fallen for five consecutive days, and BMD palm oil has fallen four days out of five, both dragging down domestic oils. Although domestic soybean oil has fallen, the decline is limited because the consumption season has started, and funds are reluctant to short aggressively. Currently, domestic demand is good, but international related varieties continue to exert pressure, so there is still some downward space, but the decline is not large. The support for the main January contract is seen around 8,300 yuan. If downstream consumption is good later, there is a chance for it to strengthen after the correction [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Spot market: The fixed - price of oil mills generally remains stable. Although the Dalian soybean meal futures have slightly rebounded, at the end of the month, oil mills are increasing the pressure to pick up goods, and some traders' actual transactions are negotiable due to inventory transfer pressure. In the short term, the domestic market is executing inventory and September positions, and the trading pace is slow. However, with the premium trading of imported soybean auctions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs, the terminal's bullish expectation for the long - term remains unchanged, and the upward trend of soybean meal prices continues [19]. 2. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - **Price and Spread Table**: P 1 - 5 is 260 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 1,042 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 68 yuan; etc. [5] - **Palm Oil Price**: Palm oil 01 is 9,316 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,406 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.97%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 9,470 yuan/ton with an increase of 30 yuan [8]. - **Soybean Oil Price**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,358 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.53%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.37 cents/pound with a decline of 1.47%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8,470 yuan/ton with a decline of 50 yuan [15]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3,055 with an increase of 16 and a rise of 0.53%; the closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2,513 with an increase of 30 and a rise of 1.21%; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,048.25 with no change [20]. - **Spread Table**: M01 - 05 is 225 with a daily increase of 9; RM01 - 05 is 75 with a daily increase of 20; etc. [21][23] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3,000 with no change, and the basis is - 39 with an increase of 6; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2,534 with a decline of 21, and the basis is 51 with a decline of 3 [23].
农产品组行业研究报告:需求较为清淡,油料震荡偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 06:21
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but the strategies for both soybeans and peanuts are rated as "Neutral" [6][8] 2. Core Views - **Soybeans**: In the short - term, the price of domestic soybeans has resilience due to the supply gap, but the increase in imported soybeans (estimated 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, good weather in new - season soybean producing areas, stable yields, and a loose global supply pattern may lead to lower international prices and drag down domestic prices. The overall price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with policy factors such as provincial reserve auctions and CGSG rotation rhythms to be monitored [1][6][33] - **Peanuts**: In the short - term, the low inventory of old - crop peanuts and the lack of centralized release of cold - storage goods before mid - July support the price, but supply pressure is expected to build up in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be loose, and the support level may decline. However, there are uncertainties such as weather during the key growing period, the impact of imported peanuts, and the influence of soybean production on peanut prices [7][48] 3. Summary by Section Soybeans - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The domestic soybean market fluctuated greatly. Futures prices were affected by factors such as new - season supply, consumption seasons, provincial reserve auctions, and weather. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2505 dropped from 3,936 yuan/ton to 3,269 yuan/ton in January and then fluctuated throughout the first half of the year [10] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, in 2024, the sown area and yield of soybeans decreased slightly. In 2025, the domestic soybean supply showed characteristics of decreasing domestic inventory and fluctuating imports. Policy support may increase the sown area in the future. On the demand side, the demand for pressing was strong first and then weak, while the edible demand was continuously weak. The inventory of domestic soybeans was low, and the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [18][27][30] - **Future Outlook**: The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with short - term price support from the supply gap and long - term downward pressure from a loose global supply pattern and weak demand. Policy factors may strengthen the expectation of loose supply [33] Peanuts - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The peanut market also fluctuated. Futures prices were affected by factors such as supply and demand in the market, new - season sowing delays, and consumption. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2503 slightly dropped from 7,928 yuan/ton to 7,920 yuan/ton in January and then rose and fluctuated [36] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, the domestic peanut production in 2024 was basically the same as that in 2023. In 2025, the sown area is expected to increase due to lower costs. The supply rhythm showed that the remaining grain decreased, and the import volume was at a low level in the first four months. On the demand side, the demand from oil mills was weak, and the edible demand was affected by consumption downgrade [38][43][45] - **Future Outlook**: In the short - term, the price has support, but supply pressure is expected in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather, the supply will be loose, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties in weather, imports, and the impact of soybean production [46][48]