丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从油煤比、气煤比看煤价上涨空间？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 若从油煤比、气煤比出发，如何看煤价上涨空间？我们认为，根据 2025 年以来 2.3 的油煤比 和气煤比关系，计算合理国内动力煤价格分别应在 1010 元/吨和 966 元/吨，平均 988 元/吨， 与最新（3 月 13 日）国内煤价 729 元/吨相比高出 36%。可见在美伊冲突下，近期国内煤价表 现基本未反映海外油气价格上涨带来的传导效应，若油气价格保持高位，国内煤价存在较大补 涨空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_ ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the coal chemical industry, particularly in the context of rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting supply security [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Strategic Shift in Coal Chemical Industry - The strategic positioning of coal chemical projects has shifted from "economic viability" to "energy security" due to geopolitical conflicts increasing oil supply disruption expectations [1]. - The profitability of coal-to-olefins and ethylene glycol has significantly improved as coal prices remain low while end-product pricing is anchored to oil prices [1]. Profitability Projections - Baofeng Energy's projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are expected to generate annual profits of approximately 20 billion RMB if oil prices reach 100 USD/barrel, and 23-24 billion RMB if prices hit 110 USD/barrel [1]. - China National Chemical Corporation (China Chem) holds a 70%-80% market share in coal chemical EPC, with potential annual incremental orders reaching 100 billion RMB, driving total order growth over 20% [1]. - Donghua Technology has over 70% market share in coal-to-ethylene glycol and gasification purification, with a potential order scale of 10-20 billion RMB if it captures 10% of the market [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The rising oil-coal ratio is expected to increase coal consumption by 50 million tons in the most optimistic scenario, accounting for 1% of domestic coal consumption [3]. - If oil prices exceed 100 USD/barrel, the coal price is expected to stabilize around 900 RMB/ton, with investment focus on companies with high market coal ratios and large-scale coal chemical capacities [3]. Market Conditions and Project Progress - The coal chemical industry is currently in a "full industry profitability" state, driven by low coal prices and oil price-linked product pricing [4]. - The urgency for energy security has shifted project approval dynamics in Xinjiang, enhancing the certainty of project approvals and accelerating order confirmations [4][6]. Recommended Companies and Investment Opportunities - Baofeng Energy is highlighted as a key player in coal-to-olefins, with significant profit elasticity due to stable upstream costs and oil price impacts on product pricing [5]. - Sulfur recovery is essential in coal chemical projects, with high import dependency and accelerated project progress driving demand for engineering equipment suppliers like 3D Chemical [5]. - China Chem is recommended for its strong market position and expected order growth, with a projected annual new order volume of around 1 trillion RMB by 2025 [6]. Additional Insights - China Chem's chemical industrial assets are expected to benefit from rising chemical product prices, with a potential valuation increase as the company trades below 0.9 times PB [7]. - Donghua Technology's capabilities in coal-to-ethylene glycol and gasification are emphasized, with significant profit potential if it captures additional market share [8]. Coal Consumption Projections - The geopolitical situation and rising oil prices could lead to an increase in coal consumption by approximately 80-83 million tons globally, accounting for about 1.1% of global coal consumption [9]. Company Performance and Elasticity - Companies like Guanghui Energy, China Xuyang, and Yanzhou Coal are identified as having significant coal chemical project capacities, with performance elasticity expected to improve as oil-coal ratios rise [9]. Long-term Price Projections - If oil prices exceed 100 USD/barrel, coal prices are projected to stabilize around 900 RMB/ton, with investment strategies focusing on companies with high growth potential and coal chemical capacities [10]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic shifts, profitability forecasts, and recommended investment opportunities within the coal chemical industry.