1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports, and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: In October, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market turned negative, mainly because the supply of palm oil in the producing areas was still large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. An Indonesian official said that the palm oil production in 2025 would increase by 10% year - on - year. Coupled with the high year - on - year production data in August, the market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, suppressing the market trend. After the meeting between the leaders of China and Canada, the two sides agreed to resume exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, but Canada later said it would not immediately reduce tariffs. Indonesia's palm oil production in August was still large. Although its domestic inventory was not high, the monthly export volume was large, and the international supply was relatively sufficient. If high production continued in the fourth quarter, Malaysia and Indonesia would enter a continuous inventory - accumulation phase, but according to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, there would be a rapid de - stocking rhythm in the first quarter of next year. In October, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was still high, and the oil supply was sufficient. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the production of soybean oil decreased. The rapeseed oil inventory was expected to remain at a relatively high level due to imports, and the palm oil inventory remained stable due to low imports. The total domestic oil inventory might show a slight downward trend from a high level [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If high production continues, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the FOB - contract price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of palm oil 01 contracts, the basis of soybean oil 01 contracts, and the basis of rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export**: The report provides data on the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [28][29][30]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and related forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The report presents data on the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil - mill inventory of soybean oil, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [41][44][46]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: The report shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report presents the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [58]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: International oil prices are rebounding, and attention should be paid to the RVO announcement situation [1] - Soybean oil: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it will fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,010 yuan/ton (daily session) with a 0.50% increase and 8,046 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.45% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,688 yuan/ton (daily session) with a -0.08% decrease and 7,732 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.57% increase; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,178 yuan/ton (daily session) with a 0.32% increase and 9,256 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.85% increase. The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,940 ringgit/ton (daily session) with a 0.03% increase and 3,849 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 0.26% increase. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 48.11 cents/pound (daily session) with a -0.85% decrease [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume was 543,908 lots, a decrease of 251,974 lots; open interest was 412,207 lots, a decrease of 32,403 lots. Soybean oil主力 trading volume was 238,752 lots, a decrease of 64,250 lots; open interest was 559,414 lots, an increase of 2,874 lots. Rapeseed oil主力 trading volume was 278,856 lots, a decrease of 79,969 lots; open interest was 284,550 lots, a decrease of 2,579 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 7,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 955 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil (Guangdong) was 340 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil (Guangdong) was 292 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 22 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,168 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 322 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 20 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 44 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 148 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US EPA will propose to set the biomass - based diesel quota below 5.25 billion gallons for 2026 and 2027. The industry is awaiting the EPA's decision on small refinery exemptions [2] 3.3 USDA Data - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 80.736 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.051 million tons, an increase of 588,000 tons; exports are expected to be 45.943 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons (unchanged), and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons [4] - The ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 is expected to be 295 million bushels, unchanged from May. Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production is expected to be 49 million tons (unchanged), and Brazil's is expected to be 169 million tons (unchanged). Global 2025/2026 soybean ending inventory is expected to be 125.3 million tons, compared with 124.33 million tons in May [4] 3.4 SEA Data - India's sunflower oil imports in May were 183,555 tons, a 1.9% increase from April; soybean oil imports were 398,585 tons, a 10.42% increase; palm oil imports were 592,888 tons, an 84.44% increase. The total vegetable oil imports in May were 1,187,068 tons, a 33.15% increase from April [5] 3.5 Brazilian Data - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to reach 169.6058 million tons, a 14.8% increase year - on - year and a 0.8% increase month - on - month; the sown area is expected to be 47.6198 million hectares, a 3.2% increase year - on - year and a 0.71 - million - hectare increase month - on - month; the yield per hectare is expected to be 3.56 tons, an 11.3% increase year - on - year and a 0.7% increase month - on - month [5] 3.6 Canadian and Australian Data - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 18.2 million tons, almost unchanged from the previous estimate. Precipitation in the main rapeseed - producing areas in southern Canada was about 33 mm less than normal in the past two weeks, and the temperature was higher than average. Future weather may help relieve the drought in some areas, but drought may continue in Manitoba [6] - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 6.2 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate. Although recent rainfall has reached the main rapeseed - producing areas, the surface soil moisture in some areas is lower than the historical median. The weather outlook from June to November predicts sufficient precipitation and mild temperatures [6] 3.7 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]