国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/27 | | | | 农产品中心 | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 投资咨询证号 | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号_ 30 陈凡生 | | | | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/26 | | 2025/11/25 | 一口价变动 | | | | | | | | | | | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 天津 8480 | | 8560 | -80 | 5000 | | | | | | 8360 张家港 | | 8440 | -80 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8290 | | 8370 B | -80 | 3000 | ...

油脂周报：油脂缺乏利多驱动，盘面整体震荡下跌 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计11月1-20日马棕产量环比增加10%，ITS预计11月1-20日马棕出口环比减少20%。 2.美国能源部计划撤销清洁能源示范办公室和能源效率与可再生能源办公室，并新增碳氢化合物和地热能源办 公室以及聚变能源办公室。 目录 3.本周受生柴政策以及高频数据利空等因素影响，油脂震荡偏弱运行。目前马棕逐渐进入减产季，马棕也将逐 渐去库，但预计整体仍处偏高水平，去库速度偏慢，印尼库存持续处于偏低水平，产地报价稳中有增，短期棕 榈油缺乏持续性利多，反弹高度可能有限。目前豆油没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点，豆油价格更多跟随油脂 整体走势波动，上涨较为乏力，但也更为抗跌。短期国内菜籽供应不足，菜油进口量也较为有限，国内菜油预 计仍是继续去库，对菜油价格仍存在一定支撑。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—马棕11月存增产预期，12月出口税率 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - **US Soybean Production and Export**: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed Oil Import**: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports, and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: In October, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market turned negative, mainly because the supply of palm oil in the producing areas was still large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. An Indonesian official said that the palm oil production in 2025 would increase by 10% year - on - year. Coupled with the high year - on - year production data in August, the market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, suppressing the market trend. After the meeting between the leaders of China and Canada, the two sides agreed to resume exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, but Canada later said it would not immediately reduce tariffs. Indonesia's palm oil production in August was still large. Although its domestic inventory was not high, the monthly export volume was large, and the international supply was relatively sufficient. If high production continued in the fourth quarter, Malaysia and Indonesia would enter a continuous inventory - accumulation phase, but according to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, there would be a rapid de - stocking rhythm in the first quarter of next year. In October, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was still high, and the oil supply was sufficient. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the production of soybean oil decreased. The rapeseed oil inventory was expected to remain at a relatively high level due to imports, and the palm oil inventory remained stable due to low imports. The total domestic oil inventory might show a slight downward trend from a high level [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If high production continues, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the FOB - contract price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of palm oil 01 contracts, the basis of soybean oil 01 contracts, and the basis of rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export**: The report provides data on the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [28][29][30]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and related forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The report presents data on the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil - mill inventory of soybean oil, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [41][44][46]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: The report shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report presents the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [58]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].

Core Insights - The global biodiesel industry has rapidly developed, injecting an "industrial" attribute into plant oil products, despite the low crude oil market and abundant oilseed raw materials leading to significant price volatility risks in the plant oil market [1] Policy Support for Biodiesel Demand - Multiple countries have introduced policies to support biodiesel blending, which has become a major source of increased demand for soybean oil and palm oil [2] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has raised the biodiesel blending target to 5.61 billion gallons by 2026, requiring 20.8 million tons of raw materials, with soybean oil usage expected to increase by 2.32 million tons, a 38.5% rise from 2024 [2] - Following this announcement, CBOT soybean oil futures surged, reaching a two-year high of over 57 cents per pound [2][3] Global Biodiesel Initiatives - Brazil has increased its biodiesel blending rate from 14% to 15%, effective August 1 [3] - Indonesia plans to implement a B50 biodiesel program by 2026, which is expected to generate an additional demand of 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil [3] - The global demand for soybean and palm oil is expected to stabilize due to these biodiesel blending plans, tightening the supply-demand balance and supporting oil prices [3] Pressure from Low Crude Oil Prices - The increasing share of biodiesel in soybean and palm oil consumption gives these oils both agricultural and industrial characteristics [4] - Low crude oil prices, which have dropped from $70-$80 per barrel last year to around $60 this year, pose a challenge to the biodiesel market, affecting its cost-effectiveness and future demand outlook [4] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in oilseed market reports, creating short-term uncertainty in the oilseed market [4] Abundant Oilseed Supply - The global oilseed market is experiencing a surplus, with the USDA increasing the forecast for U.S. soybean harvest area, leading to an expected increase in soybean production despite a decrease in yield estimates [5] - U.S. soybean exports have been downgraded due to trade tensions, resulting in an anticipated year-end inventory of 300 million bushels [5] - Brazil's soybean planting rate has reached 14%, with a projected record total production of 177.67 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a 3.6% increase year-on-year [6] - The overall supply pressure from abundant global soybean production is contributing to a bearish sentiment in the plant oil market [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - **US Biodiesel Policy**: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in palm oil prices is primarily driven by supply concerns from Indonesia due to government actions against illegal plantations, alongside positive export data from Malaysia fueled by demand for the Indian festival Diwali [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 18, Dalian Commodity Exchange palm oil futures initially rose nearly 3% before closing with a gain of 1.89%, reaching a seven-month high of 9672 yuan/ton [1]. - Indonesia's military has seized 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm plantations, representing 20% of the country's official plantation area, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil production [3]. - The Indonesian government's crackdown may result in lower yields, impacting future palm oil production growth, with projections indicating that the increase in production may not meet consumption growth by 2025 [3]. Group 2: Export and Production Insights - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1-15 are estimated at 537,183 tons, a 34.5% increase from the same period last month, driven by demand for the Diwali festival [4]. - Data from SPPOMA indicates a slight decrease in palm oil yield but an increase in extraction rates, suggesting a mixed production outlook for Malaysia [4]. - The overall domestic supply and demand for palm oil in China remains relaxed, with limited procurement for September, indicating a broader market stability [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Indonesian government's intensified actions against illegal plantations could significantly affect future supply, with an additional 3.7 million hectares under scrutiny [4]. - Domestic oil prices are expected to follow international trends, with potential for a phase of adjustment after recent price increases, suggesting a cautious approach to trading strategies [4][5]. - Analysts recommend maintaining low long positions while being cautious about chasing higher prices due to potential market fluctuations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in palm oil prices, driven by various factors including weather conditions, export dynamics, and market demand, particularly from India and Indonesia [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late July, rumors of domestic companies exporting soybean oil to India led to a decrease in palm oil demand, causing prices to drop to a low of 8746 yuan/ton [4]. - However, by early August, reports of poor palm oil production in Indonesia led to a rebound in prices, surpassing 9000 yuan/ton with an increase of nearly 3% [4]. - The article notes that Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to face challenges due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures in July, which could affect fruit quality and yield [5][10]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production was estimated to decrease by 7%-8% due to lower rainfall, with cumulative production reaching 27.69 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - The article highlights that Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 2.588 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30.5% due to a decrease in export tariffs [10]. - As of mid-July, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was approximately 7.42 billion liters, aligning closely with annual targets despite concerns about the implementation of B40 biodiesel blending [11]. Group 3: International Trade and Demand - India's palm oil imports in June rose to 960,000 tons, up from 590,000 tons in May, indicating a recovery in demand [16]. - However, in July, palm oil imports decreased to 855,000 tons, attributed to high domestic prices, while soybean oil imports increased to 495,000 tons [16]. - The article also mentions that South American soybean oil exports are expected to slow down, which may lead India to rely more on palm oil imports in the upcoming months [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that palm oil prices may remain strong in the short term due to ongoing demand from India and biodiesel requirements in Indonesia [19]. - However, after the Diwali festival in October, palm oil imports may decline as inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia rise, potentially leading to a market shift towards weaker demand [19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The current price of palm oil is pushed to a three - year high by positive domestic macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals may not support this high price. There is a chance of a price correction if inventory builds up more than expected in August - September, along with other negative factors. However, if the inventory fails to break through 230 million tons and the supply pressure in July - August does not form effective price pressure, the market may have digested the inventory high, and there may be limited major supply - side negatives later. It is advisable to continuously monitor opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean oil market is in a situation of weak current reality but strong expectations. Its driving factors currently lie in the weather of US soybeans, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. It is recommended to follow the trend of the oil and fat sector for now and pay attention to the Sino - US trade results next week to see if a procurement agreement can be reached [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - **Palm Oil**: Positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lacked strong drivers. Without strong supply themes, the high price needed strong downstream demand. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.31% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: As the Sino - US trade negotiation approached, the tense sentiment in the soybean sector rose, which improved the weak reality of domestic soybean oil to some extent, but still could not provide a strong driving force for the price to rise. The soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.20% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic - **Palm Oil**: After the bearish news of the slight increase in June inventory in the MPOB report was digested, the price rebounded. The market started to trade the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but conservatively, it will not exceed 220 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of palm oil is quite resistant to decline. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the recent price increase. The production recovery in Indonesia may fall short of expectations again. With the US biodiesel policy reducing the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, the international oil and fat market may see a systematic upward trend. In the sales area, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil, and the reconstruction of channel inventory is underway. If the monthly import volume can be maintained above 80 million tons, it will be difficult for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to exceed 230 million tons. The soybean - palm oil price difference is not expected to return to parity this year. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction if inventory builds up more than expected in August - September, as well as the potential for early de - stocking and bullish sentiment if production in July - August is lower than expected [2][3][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The weather speculation of US soybeans is currently weak. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can potentially lead to a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean oil market is in a state of weak current situation but strong expectations. The recent increase in port soybean inventory, high - level crushing operations, and poor提货 have led to a rapid build - up of soybean oil inventory. The export of large orders of domestic soybean oil to India may narrow the domestic soybean - palm oil price difference to the international level. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is room for the spread and Brazilian premium to rise, which may benefit soybean oil. It is advisable to follow the oil and fat sector for now and wait for potential opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [5]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Quotes**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,936 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,457 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,276 ringgit/ton, down 0.93%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 55.92 cents/pound, up 0.61% [8]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, with an increase of 597,494 lots; the open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 100,607 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 2,877,519 lots, an increase of 268,435 lots; the open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 53,546 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract was 3,053,981 lots, a decrease of 153,613 lots; the open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 36,060 lots [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,313 yuan/ton, down 7.92%; the soybean - palm 09 spread was - 792 yuan/ton, up 1.49%; the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 8 yuan/ton, down 75.00%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 4.76%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 56 yuan/ton, down 27.27% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 854 lots compared to last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 21,495 lots, a decrease of 623 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, unchanged from last week [8].