来源：粮油市场报 经过前期的大幅波动，在缺乏显著多空因素影响下，最近一周（2月3日至9日），国内食用油市场进入 小幅震荡格局。 豆油：供增需弱 价格承压 本周，国内豆油市场整体弱势震荡，价格重心较前一周下移。市场预期主要进口国需求可能放缓，国际 豆油报价疲软，令国内成本支撑减弱。若无明显利多因素驱动，预计短期豆油市场将延续弱势整理态 势。 棕榈油：采购趋缓 成交清淡 本周，国内棕榈油现货市场整体呈震荡偏弱态势，成交持续清淡，受高库存压制明显。棕榈油与豆油、 菜油性价比优势不明显，替代消费乏力。春节临近，现货市场需求将进一步萎缩，贸易商去库存压力仍 存，现货价格或继续震荡下行。 菜籽油：供需双弱 区间震荡 截至2月9日当周，国内菜籽油现货市场整体呈震荡波动态势，价格跟盘调整。国内菜籽油商业库存延续 下降趋势，短期供应压力温和。但市场预期后期压榨开机率提升，远月供应增加，压制现货价格。春节 临近，现货需求进一步萎缩，价格或维持震荡运行。 花生油：库存高位 价格平稳 本周，国内花生油现货市场整体保持平稳运行，价格波动微弱。成交端呈现"产区平稳、销区微暖"态 势。春节临近，市场交易逐步收尾，花生油现货价格将维持平稳。 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil Market - The focus of the soybean oil market is on the upcoming U.S. biofuel blending mandate for 2026, expected to boost demand for U.S. soybean oil and global soybean oil outlook [2] - The proposed 45Z clean fuel tax credit rules from the U.S. Treasury are expected to provide long-term structural support for U.S. soybean oil prices, linking its value to energy policies [2] - Risks include potential underwhelming outcomes from the U.S. biofuel policy, improved weather conditions in South America, and domestic inventory accumulation during the Chinese New Year [3] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift due to reduced supply from production areas, recovering export demand, and unexpected declines in inventory, as confirmed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board [4] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased by 7.72% to 2.815 million tons, with January production dropping by 13.78% to 1.577 million tons, while exports increased by 11.44% to 1.484 million tons [4] - Domestic market sentiment is affected by rising risk factors, including potential weather improvements in Southeast Asia and the purchasing pace of major importing countries like India [5]

Report Title - Short-term oils and fats lack obvious drivers, and wide-range fluctuations are likely to continue [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term oils and fats are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations without a clear trend [26] - Domestic soybean supply is currently sufficient, and soybean crushing is expected to pick up in the next two weeks. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de-stocking slightly, but overall inventory is not likely to be tight. There is no prominent contradiction in soybean oil at present [5][24] - Sino-Canadian rapeseed trade is expected to resume, and rapeseed supply is expected to increase. However, it will take time for Canadian rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue de-stocking, and the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [5][24] - High-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil will reduce production and de-stock in January, and it is expected to continue to do so in the later stage, but the de-stocking speed is slow, and high inventory may continue [5][24] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of January decreased by 16.06% compared with the same period last month. ITS shows that the export volume in the same period was 950,000 tons, a 11.4% increase [5][8] - As of January 21, 2026, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean has completed 96.2% of the planned area, a 2.3 percentage point increase from last week [5][11] - This week, oils and fats showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the rise of crude oil due to the cold wave in the United States, and good expectations for U.S. biodiesel [5] International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: High-frequency data shows a 16.06% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January compared with the same period last month, and a 11.4% increase in exports. The inventory in January may drop to around 2.8 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. UOB predicts a 13%-17% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January, similar to SPPOMA. The weather forecast shows increased rainfall in the southern Malay Peninsula in the next two weeks [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The government revoked the operating licenses of 28 companies and will raise the palm oil LEVY tax from March 1, both of which will boost palm oil prices [8] - **South American Soybeans**: As of January 17, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 98.6%, and the harvest progress was 2.3%. Some areas may be affected by continuous rainfall. As of January 21, Argentina's sowing progress reached 96.2%, but the northern agricultural region was affected by continuous rainfall [11] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.37% increase from last week, at a slightly high level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are rumors of near-month purchases. The basis is fluctuating weakly. Short-term palm oil lacks obvious drivers, and high inventory is expected to persist, but factors such as the low inventory in Indonesia, the upcoming tax increase, and accelerated exports will provide support. It is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 6.03% decrease from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable and slightly weak. The spot trading volume has improved, and the inventory is expected to continue to de-stock slightly. Short-term domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, so it is expected to maintain a bottom-range fluctuation [19] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 last week, and the inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000-ton increase, at a neutral level, and the inventory is continuously de-stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -$1,300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed, and short-term supply of tradable rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening trend in rapeseed oil, but considering the time for rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports and the good biodiesel expectations, the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [22] Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short-term oils and fats may continue wide-range fluctuations without a trend [26] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [26] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [26] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [31][32][33][35] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [36][37][38][39] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Covers NOPA U.S. soybean crushing volume, NOPA U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory [41][43][45][47] - **Indian Oils and Fats**: Covers monthly data on consumption, imports, port inventory, and imports of different types of oils [49][50][51][52][54][56][58][59] Domestic Market - **Import Profits**: Includes domestic rapeseed oil and 24-degree palm oil import profits [62][63][64][66] - **Supply and Demand of Different Oils**: Covers data on supply and demand, including crushing volume, consumption, trading volume, and inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [66][68][70] - **Spot Basis**: Includes the spot basis of first-grade soybean oil, 24-degree palm oil, and domestic triple-rapeseed oil [73] - **Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on the commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oils and fats [77][78][79][80][82][83][84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic and international oil markets have been under pressure recently, maintaining a weak and volatile pattern. The core drivers are the supply pressure and weak demand in the international market. South American soybean production areas have favorable weather, and expectations of a bumper harvest continue to suppress market sentiment. The decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the support for the biodiesel theme, and post - holiday terminal procurement has slowed down, leading to light market trading. Against this backdrop, palm oil has become the leading decliner due to inventory pressure, while soybean oil has shown relative resistance as some domestic oil mills have shut down, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [2]. - Overall, the oil sector lacks effective positive factors. Under the dual influence of macro and fundamental factors, its center of gravity is shifting downward. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7700 - 8000 for soybean oil, 8300 - 8600 for palm oil, and 8900 - 9200 for rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last month, the domestic oil futures market showed a weak and volatile pattern. Affected by factors such as seasonal production increases in international palm oil production areas, ample supply of related vegetable oils, and the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment was bearish. Although there was a temporary restocking demand on the domestic consumption side, which supported prices to some extent, there was insufficient upward momentum. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with palm oil showing a relatively significant decline due to external market influence. The oil sector continued its adjustment trend under the loose supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.829 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%, higher than the market's expected seasonal flat or slight increase. The high inventory level will continue to limit the rebound space of palm oil prices. As of the end of November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 2.51 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 10.8% [10]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 9.3%. Weak exports were mainly due to sufficient inventories and low procurement willingness in major importing countries and intensified competition from Indonesia. However, in December, according to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 28.4% month - on - month [14][18]. - **Import and Arrival**: As of December 31, there were a total of 10 palm oil purchase vessels, with 6 vessels for January shipment and the rest for December - January. There were no new cancelations. The arrival volume at the end of the year was sufficient. Import profits were mostly in deep inversion, which suppressed new procurement by traders [21]. - **Domestic Inventory and Trading**: As of the end of December 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 205,700 tons. The total trading volume of palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 13,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 590.9 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [25]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the palm oil futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis in each region declined significantly. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 89.01% month - on - month, and the spot spread decreased by 79.78% month - on - month [29]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **International Soybean Situation**: The US government shutdown caused the USDA to miss the October report. The November report after the shutdown was cautious in adjusting the yield forecast, and the December report did not adjust the balance sheet as usual. The USDA's January production - determining report will be crucial for the 2025/2026 US soybean production and supply - demand situation. Last month, US soybean export sales were generally lackluster, and the market's focus has shifted to the planting intentions and weather of the new US soybean season [32][36]. - **Import Premium**: Last month, the international soybean premium quotes showed a divergent trend. The premium of US soybeans (US Gulf) was stable and slightly stronger, while that of South American soybeans (Brazil/Argentina) was generally under pressure [39]. - **Domestic Inventory and Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.089 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,500 tons. Some oil mills shut down due to a shortage of soybeans, causing the soybean oil inventory to gradually decline [43]. - **Spot Basis and Trading**: In December, the domestic soybean oil spot price was in a weak and volatile trend. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The spot basis was stable and slightly weak. The total trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic oil mills increased compared to the previous month [47]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Trade Situation**: China is actively diversifying its sources of rapeseed imports. The trade between China and Canada regarding rapeseed is in a state of uncertainty, with potential trade - related risks [51]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December, the total rapeseed oil inventory in major regions was 285,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The basis was strong, and the market is expected to show a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, with significant pressure in the near term, and should be treated bearishly; rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to the trend of last year [2] 3. Summary by Related Categories Spot Price - On November 26, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8480, 8360, and 8290 respectively, with a decrease of 80 compared to November 25 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8460, and 8470 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 25 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10110, 10160, and 10360 respectively, with decreases of 80, 80, and 110 compared to November 25 [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the spread between the main soybean and palm oil contracts was - 290, a change of - 74; the spread between the main rapeseed and soybean oil contracts was 1669, a change of - 5 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 0, with no change; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24625, a decrease of 2596; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3968, a decrease of 3 [1] Production and Export - According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, 1 - 15, and 1 - 10, the exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 20.5%, 15.5%, and 12.8% respectively compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the corresponding decreases were 14%, 10%, and 10% [1] Inventory - As of November 14, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a high level in recent years [1] - As of November 14, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - The expected rapeseed oil import volume in November is 22.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2] US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production is forecasted to be 4.266 billion bushels, with a yield per unit area of 53.1 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 0.304 billion bushels; the export is forecasted to be 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September forecast [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, affected by factors such as biodiesel policies and bearish high - frequency data, the overall trend of edible oils has been weak. Although Malaysian palm oil is entering the production - reduction season and will gradually reduce inventory, the inventory is expected to remain at a relatively high level with a slow reduction speed. Indonesian inventory is continuously at a low level, and the origin quotes are stable with a slight increase. Short - term palm oil lacks continuous positive factors, and the rebound height may be limited. [4][31] - Currently, there is no prominent core contradiction in soybean oil. Its price mainly fluctuates with the overall trend of edible oils, showing weak upward momentum but more resistance to decline. [4][31] - In the short term, the domestic rapeseed supply is insufficient, and the import volume of rapeseed oil is also limited. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. [4][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: SPPOMA predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20 increased by 10% month - on - month, significantly higher than the 4% increase in the first 15 days. ITS predicts that the Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20% month - on - month, with a greater decline than the 16% decrease in the first 15 days. There is a possibility that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase instead of decrease in November. Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit, lower than 4,262 ringgit in November, with the tax rate remaining at 10%. [5][8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The Indonesian government revised the calculation rule of CPO reference price and announced that the CPO export price in December is $926.14. The tax decreased from $124 to $74, a reduction of $50. Recently, the prices of fruit bunches and CPO tender in Indonesia have rebounded, currently lower than last year's level but still at a relatively high level in the same historical period. [13] - **US Market**: The market rumor that the EPA proposed a RVO target of 561 million gallons for next year led to a sharp rise in the external edible oil market. However, the final US biodiesel plan has not been finalized, and the market is still waiting. The US Department of Energy plans to revoke the Clean Energy Demonstration Office and the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office, and add the Hydrocarbon and Geothermal Energy Office and the Fusion Energy Office. It also plans to review and potentially withdraw about $13 billion in unallocated funds originally intended for subsidizing wind, solar, battery, and electric vehicle projects. The price difference between US and Argentine soybean oil has been continuously narrowing and is expected to remain at a low level. [17] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 653,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,900 tons or 9.36%. The origin quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 100, and it is rumored that there were 2 ship purchases this week. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks positive drivers, with limited downward and upward space. Consider short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying range operations. [20] - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1485 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,700 tons or 0.75%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable. It is rumored that some US soybeans were purchased this week, accelerating the purchase progress. Spot trading is average, but提货 is good. It is expected that the soybean oil inventory will be difficult to increase. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Temporarily observe, and consider lightly testing long positions after a callback and stabilization. [26] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,100, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,000. It is rumored that there was rapeseed oil import this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high, but the downstream acceptance is average. It is expected that the de - stocking trend along the coast will continue. Russia cancelled the price - reduction coefficient for food railway transportation, which is estimated to increase the transportation cost by about $10. In the short term, the overall edible oil has weak upward momentum. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much. With insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and continuous marginal de - stocking, there is still some support for the rapeseed oil price. Consider buying on dips for OI03 or 05 contracts when the rapeseed procurement is not fully liberalized. [29] Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term edible oils lack positive drivers, but the downward space is limited. There may be a technical rebound, but the rebound height may also be limited. Consider short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying range operations. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Observe. - **Option Strategy**: Observe. [33] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years. [37][38] - **Indonesian Palm Oil Market**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are provided, with historical comparison. [44] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA US soybean crushing volume, NOPA US soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing, and Argentine soybean oil inventory are included. [46] - **Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on Indian edible oil monthly consumption, soybean oil monthly import, edible oil monthly import, and port inventory are shown. [47][48] - **Domestic Market Data**: Data on domestic rapeseed oil import profit, 24 - degree palm oil import profit, soybean oil supply and demand (including weekly crushing volume, consumption, and trading volume), palm oil supply and demand (including monthly import, monthly shipment, and weekly trading volume), rapeseed oil supply and demand (including weekly crushing volume, import volume, and monthly consumption), edible oil spot basis (including first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic third - grade rapeseed oil), and edible oil commercial inventory (including soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil) are presented. [57][60]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - **US Soybean Production and Export**: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed Oil Import**: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports, and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: In October, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market turned negative, mainly because the supply of palm oil in the producing areas was still large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. An Indonesian official said that the palm oil production in 2025 would increase by 10% year - on - year. Coupled with the high year - on - year production data in August, the market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, suppressing the market trend. After the meeting between the leaders of China and Canada, the two sides agreed to resume exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, but Canada later said it would not immediately reduce tariffs. Indonesia's palm oil production in August was still large. Although its domestic inventory was not high, the monthly export volume was large, and the international supply was relatively sufficient. If high production continued in the fourth quarter, Malaysia and Indonesia would enter a continuous inventory - accumulation phase, but according to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, there would be a rapid de - stocking rhythm in the first quarter of next year. In October, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was still high, and the oil supply was sufficient. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the production of soybean oil decreased. The rapeseed oil inventory was expected to remain at a relatively high level due to imports, and the palm oil inventory remained stable due to low imports. The total domestic oil inventory might show a slight downward trend from a high level [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If high production continues, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the FOB - contract price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of palm oil 01 contracts, the basis of soybean oil 01 contracts, and the basis of rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export**: The report provides data on the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [28][29][30]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and related forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The report presents data on the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil - mill inventory of soybean oil, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [41][44][46]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: The report shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report presents the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [58]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].

Core Insights - The global biodiesel industry has rapidly developed, injecting an "industrial" attribute into plant oil products, despite the low crude oil market and abundant oilseed raw materials leading to significant price volatility risks in the plant oil market [1] Policy Support for Biodiesel Demand - Multiple countries have introduced policies to support biodiesel blending, which has become a major source of increased demand for soybean oil and palm oil [2] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has raised the biodiesel blending target to 5.61 billion gallons by 2026, requiring 20.8 million tons of raw materials, with soybean oil usage expected to increase by 2.32 million tons, a 38.5% rise from 2024 [2] - Following this announcement, CBOT soybean oil futures surged, reaching a two-year high of over 57 cents per pound [2][3] Global Biodiesel Initiatives - Brazil has increased its biodiesel blending rate from 14% to 15%, effective August 1 [3] - Indonesia plans to implement a B50 biodiesel program by 2026, which is expected to generate an additional demand of 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil [3] - The global demand for soybean and palm oil is expected to stabilize due to these biodiesel blending plans, tightening the supply-demand balance and supporting oil prices [3] Pressure from Low Crude Oil Prices - The increasing share of biodiesel in soybean and palm oil consumption gives these oils both agricultural and industrial characteristics [4] - Low crude oil prices, which have dropped from $70-$80 per barrel last year to around $60 this year, pose a challenge to the biodiesel market, affecting its cost-effectiveness and future demand outlook [4] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in oilseed market reports, creating short-term uncertainty in the oilseed market [4] Abundant Oilseed Supply - The global oilseed market is experiencing a surplus, with the USDA increasing the forecast for U.S. soybean harvest area, leading to an expected increase in soybean production despite a decrease in yield estimates [5] - U.S. soybean exports have been downgraded due to trade tensions, resulting in an anticipated year-end inventory of 300 million bushels [5] - Brazil's soybean planting rate has reached 14%, with a projected record total production of 177.67 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a 3.6% increase year-on-year [6] - The overall supply pressure from abundant global soybean production is contributing to a bearish sentiment in the plant oil market [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]