目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 油脂周报：政策扰动较多，油脂有所分化 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 国际市场—8月马棕如期增产累库，产地现货价持稳运行 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. MPOB 8月棕榈油供需数据显示，马棕8月期末库存累库至220万吨，产量如期增2%至186万吨，出口降至132 万吨，表观消费增至49万吨。 2. SPPOMA数据显示9月前10日马棕产量环比减少3%，ITS预计9月前10日马棕出口环比减少1%。 3.本周油脂盘面有所分化，豆棕油以震荡回落为主，而菜油震荡小幅上涨。整体上，8月马棕如期增产累库， 预计9月马棕产量或有所下滑，产地现货价持稳运行。豆油受美国生柴政策预期影响扰动，关注周六USDA报告， 短期盘面缺乏明显驱动，不过豆油下方支撑较强。加拿大正考虑免除或降低对中国电动汽车的关税以此换的中 国对加菜籽进口的限制，政策端不确定性仍存。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—本周美国SRE传闻较多，D4 rins价格震荡走弱 GALAXY FU ...

8月18日，大商所棕榈油期货先涨后跌，主力合约日内涨幅一度涨近3%，后收盘涨幅为1.89%，涨幅有所收窄，但盘中触及9672元/吨的七个月高点。豆油及 菜油跟随棕榈油上行，盘面区间震荡，整体供需变化较为有限。 印尼军方突袭310万公顷种植园 印度排灯节备货点燃出口热潮 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量为537183吨，较上月同期出口的399366吨增加34.5%。其他机构数据同样亮眼，出 口增幅区间达16.5%-21.3%，印度排灯节备货需求成为核心驱动力。 SPPOMA数据显示，2025年8月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少1.78%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.51%，产量环比上月同期增加0.88%。中信 建投期货分析认为："在马棕产量及出口数据利多迹象初见，印棕产量因种植园没收面积增加而面临风险，且国内菜油去库预期被加菜籽高额反倾销保证金 强化，豆油亦面临进口成本拾升及累库放缓的背景下，随着三大油脂陆续迎来向上突破，前期压力转化为支撑，上方空间也被打开。" 后市展望 国信期货表示，印尼总统普拉博沃宣布将对非法棕榈种植展开更大规模整治，涉及370万公顷违规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in palm oil prices, driven by various factors including weather conditions, export dynamics, and market demand, particularly from India and Indonesia [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late July, rumors of domestic companies exporting soybean oil to India led to a decrease in palm oil demand, causing prices to drop to a low of 8746 yuan/ton [4]. - However, by early August, reports of poor palm oil production in Indonesia led to a rebound in prices, surpassing 9000 yuan/ton with an increase of nearly 3% [4]. - The article notes that Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to face challenges due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures in July, which could affect fruit quality and yield [5][10]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production was estimated to decrease by 7%-8% due to lower rainfall, with cumulative production reaching 27.69 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - The article highlights that Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 2.588 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30.5% due to a decrease in export tariffs [10]. - As of mid-July, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was approximately 7.42 billion liters, aligning closely with annual targets despite concerns about the implementation of B40 biodiesel blending [11]. Group 3: International Trade and Demand - India's palm oil imports in June rose to 960,000 tons, up from 590,000 tons in May, indicating a recovery in demand [16]. - However, in July, palm oil imports decreased to 855,000 tons, attributed to high domestic prices, while soybean oil imports increased to 495,000 tons [16]. - The article also mentions that South American soybean oil exports are expected to slow down, which may lead India to rely more on palm oil imports in the upcoming months [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that palm oil prices may remain strong in the short term due to ongoing demand from India and biodiesel requirements in Indonesia [19]. - However, after the Diwali festival in October, palm oil imports may decline as inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia rise, potentially leading to a market shift towards weaker demand [19].

豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位，但基本面缺乏强驱动，没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接，印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲，棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆油：中美贸易谈判临近，豆系紧张情绪抬头，对国内豆油弱现实有所改善，但仍难以给出上涨的强 驱动，豆油 09 合约周跌 0.20%。 期货研究 本周观点及逻辑： 报告导读： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告 6 月库存微增后利空落地开启反弹，同时今年库存高点已经从 4 月以来被盘面逐步 消化，棕榈油基本面无新增有效利空，市场开始交易下半年去库行情，同时国内宏观情绪偏好，将棕榈油 顶至三年高位，但当下的基本面未免显得这个价格不配位。从产地基本面来看，我们预估 7 月产量仍难以 达到 180 万吨，同时前 25 日出口情绪偏差，预估在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-24 国产菜籽上市，油脂承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8520.00元/吨，环比变化-16元，幅度-0.19%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8126.00 元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.37%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9721.00元/吨，环比变化-5.00元，幅度-0.05%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.26%，现货基差P09+100.00，环比变化 -94.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8280.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.72%，现货基差Y09+154.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：1月9日讯，1月9日马来西亚棕榈油离岸价为1095美元，较上日跌15美元，进口到岸价为1125 美元，较上日跌15美SPPOMA：2025年6月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比上月同期增加2.5%。多位行业官 ...

产地棕油供需均增&中加关系缓和， 菜棕价差回吐此前涨幅 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250609 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/k ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+250（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：6 月上旬 09+280，6-7 月 09+260；6-9 月 09+270,10-1 月 01+330。华东 24 度：P09+450 ...