综合来看，随着各国的生物柴油掺混计划逐步落地，作为主要原料的豆油和棕榈油中期增量需求就有了 稳定的支持。加上相关国家本身就是全球油脂及原料的重要供应国。这意味着全球油脂供求中期面临收 紧的压力。这也为相关油脂品种价格提供重要支撑。 国际油价低迷带来压力 随着生物柴油在豆油、棕榈油消费中的比重提高，油脂品种同时兼具农产品和工业品的属性。而在生柴 政策推广整体利多油脂消费的同时，政策能否转变为实际的油脂消费增量也面临现实挑战。其中最直接 的阻力就来自于低迷的原油价格。在欧佩克+产油国逐步退出前两年减产政策，转而加大石油供应的背 景下，美国挑起的关税战延缓全球经济复苏的进程，也给石油需求带来直接的利空冲击。对原油市场供 需过剩的担忧拖累国际原油价格重心已经从去年的每桶70至80美元下滑到今年迄今的60美元上下，与 2022年95美元左右的均价相比更是跌去三成。低迷的油价压低了生物柴油掺混的性价比，也给未来生物 柴油需求前景蒙上阴影。 新华财经北京10月17日电 全球生物柴油行业近年来的快速发展，为作为农产品的植物油产品注入了"工 业"属性。尽管多国陆续出台多项政策推广生物柴油的使用，给豆油、棕榈油等相关油脂带来积极 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - **US Biodiesel Policy**: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]

8月18日，大商所棕榈油期货先涨后跌，主力合约日内涨幅一度涨近3%，后收盘涨幅为1.89%，涨幅有所收窄，但盘中触及9672元/吨的七个月高点。豆油及 菜油跟随棕榈油上行，盘面区间震荡，整体供需变化较为有限。 印尼军方突袭310万公顷种植园 印度排灯节备货点燃出口热潮 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量为537183吨，较上月同期出口的399366吨增加34.5%。其他机构数据同样亮眼，出 口增幅区间达16.5%-21.3%，印度排灯节备货需求成为核心驱动力。 SPPOMA数据显示，2025年8月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少1.78%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.51%，产量环比上月同期增加0.88%。中信 建投期货分析认为："在马棕产量及出口数据利多迹象初见，印棕产量因种植园没收面积增加而面临风险，且国内菜油去库预期被加菜籽高额反倾销保证金 强化，豆油亦面临进口成本拾升及累库放缓的背景下，随着三大油脂陆续迎来向上突破，前期压力转化为支撑，上方空间也被打开。" 后市展望 国信期货表示，印尼总统普拉博沃宣布将对非法棕榈种植展开更大规模整治，涉及370万公顷违规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in palm oil prices, driven by various factors including weather conditions, export dynamics, and market demand, particularly from India and Indonesia [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late July, rumors of domestic companies exporting soybean oil to India led to a decrease in palm oil demand, causing prices to drop to a low of 8746 yuan/ton [4]. - However, by early August, reports of poor palm oil production in Indonesia led to a rebound in prices, surpassing 9000 yuan/ton with an increase of nearly 3% [4]. - The article notes that Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to face challenges due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures in July, which could affect fruit quality and yield [5][10]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production was estimated to decrease by 7%-8% due to lower rainfall, with cumulative production reaching 27.69 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - The article highlights that Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 2.588 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30.5% due to a decrease in export tariffs [10]. - As of mid-July, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was approximately 7.42 billion liters, aligning closely with annual targets despite concerns about the implementation of B40 biodiesel blending [11]. Group 3: International Trade and Demand - India's palm oil imports in June rose to 960,000 tons, up from 590,000 tons in May, indicating a recovery in demand [16]. - However, in July, palm oil imports decreased to 855,000 tons, attributed to high domestic prices, while soybean oil imports increased to 495,000 tons [16]. - The article also mentions that South American soybean oil exports are expected to slow down, which may lead India to rely more on palm oil imports in the upcoming months [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that palm oil prices may remain strong in the short term due to ongoing demand from India and biodiesel requirements in Indonesia [19]. - However, after the Diwali festival in October, palm oil imports may decline as inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia rise, potentially leading to a market shift towards weaker demand [19].

豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位，但基本面缺乏强驱动，没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接，印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲，棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆油：中美贸易谈判临近，豆系紧张情绪抬头，对国内豆油弱现实有所改善，但仍难以给出上涨的强 驱动，豆油 09 合约周跌 0.20%。 期货研究 本周观点及逻辑： 报告导读： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告 6 月库存微增后利空落地开启反弹，同时今年库存高点已经从 4 月以来被盘面逐步 消化，棕榈油基本面无新增有效利空，市场开始交易下半年去库行情，同时国内宏观情绪偏好，将棕榈油 顶至三年高位，但当下的基本面未免显得这个价格不配位。从产地基本面来看，我们预估 7 月产量仍难以 达到 180 万吨，同时前 25 日出口情绪偏差，预估在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-24 国产菜籽上市，油脂承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8520.00元/吨，环比变化-16元，幅度-0.19%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8126.00 元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.37%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9721.00元/吨，环比变化-5.00元，幅度-0.05%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.26%，现货基差P09+100.00，环比变化 -94.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8280.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.72%，现货基差Y09+154.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：1月9日讯，1月9日马来西亚棕榈油离岸价为1095美元，较上日跌15美元，进口到岸价为1125 美元，较上日跌15美SPPOMA：2025年6月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比上月同期增加2.5%。多位行业官 ...

产地棕油供需均增&中加关系缓和， 菜棕价差回吐此前涨幅 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250609 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/k ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+250（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：6 月上旬 09+280，6-7 月 09+260；6-9 月 09+270,10-1 月 01+330。华东 24 度：P09+450 ...