第二部分 基本面分析 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 09 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8190 | (40) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8450 | | | | 8470 | 8350 | 280 | | 0 | 260 | 0 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8648 | (58) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8598 | | | | 8658 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Oil Daily Report [2] - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - After a sharp decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, palm oil lacks a clear short - term driver, with limited expected upside. Soybean oil is expected to remain volatile, and rapeseed oil is seeing continuous marginal de - stocking, which supports its price [5][6][8] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2601 closing price is 8356, up 36. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8626, 8656, and 8516 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 300, 270, and 160 respectively, with Tianjin's basis down 10 [3] - **Palm Oil**: The 2601 closing price is 8852, up 144. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8802, 8872, and 8962 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are - 50, 20, and 110 respectively [3] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2601 closing price is 9813, down 61. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 10163, 10413 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong are 350 and 600 respectively [3] Month - to - Month Spreads - **Soybean Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is 200, down 28 - **Palm Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is - 90, up 24 - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is 363, down 64 [3] Cross - Variety Spreads - The 01 contract Y - P spread is - 496, down 108; the OI - Y spread is 1457; the OI - P spread is 961, down 205; the oil - meal ratio is 2.77, up 0.03 [3] Import Profits - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a disk profit of - 191, with a CNF price of 1060 for the 12 - month shipment. The FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil for the 1 - month shipment is 1095, and the disk profit is - 949 [3] Weekly Commercial Inventories - **Soybean Oil**: 114.9 million tons this week, compared with 115.7 million tons last year and 106.6 million tons the year before last - **Palm Oil**: 65.3 million tons this week, compared with 50.8 million tons last week and 41.9 million tons the year before last - **Rapeseed Oil**: 43.0 million tons this week, compared with 45.5 million tons last week and 41.9 million tons the year before last [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of November 16, 2025, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports are 108 million tons (compared to 132 million tons last year), soybean imports are 440 million tons (compared to 525 million tons last year), soybean meal imports are 674 million tons (compared to 737 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports are 140 million tons (compared to 244 million tons last year) [5] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Driven by the EPA's proposed 2026 RVO target of 5.61 billion gallons, the domestic palm oil futures price closed up more than 1%. As of November 14, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory is 65.32 million tons, up 9.36% week - on - week. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and the basis is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips or use a high - sell - low - buy range strategy [5] - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0776 million tons, with an operating rate of 57.15%. As of November 14, 2025, the national soybean oil commercial inventory is 114.85 million tons, down 0.75% week - on - week. The inventory is at a relatively high level historically, but the inflection point has been reached. It is expected to remain range - bound, and it is recommended to wait and see and then go long on dips [6][8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price closed slightly down. Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the inventory was depleted. As of November 14, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 43 million tons, down 2.5 million tons, still at a high historical level but continuously de - stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around $1100, and the import profit inversion has widened. The basis is firm. It is recommended to go long on dips for the OI03 or 05 contracts [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - Consider going long on dips or continue to wait and see for palm oil; consider going long on dips for the OI03 or 05 contracts of rapeseed oil [10] Arbitrage - Wait and see Options - Wait and see [12]