道是无晴却有晴 — 2026 年菜油年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 投资咨询部 研究员: 龚悦 从业资格号：F3023504 投资咨询号：Z0014055 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 菜油：道是无晴却有晴 龚悦，硕士研究生学历，郑商所"资深高级分析师"，分别于 2021 年、2020 年、2019 年连续三年荣获"郑商所高级分析师"称号。安粮期货投资咨询部投资顾 问岗，中级经济师。从业以来，累积为三十余家企业提供产业风险对冲服务，担 任四十余场由交易所主办的行情分析研讨会、圆桌论坛主讲分析师。在《期货日 报》、《和讯期货》、《对冲研投》、《文华财经》、《资管网》等平台上公开 发表研究与策略报告四十余篇。 研究方向与特点：注重产业链研究体系、交易策略体系与风控体系的构建与 修正。 龚悦 安粮期货投资咨询部 观点摘要 宏观层面：2026 年，国内外所处的宏观周期或不支持油脂等农产品演绎出趋 势性上行行情。另一方面，美元走弱或为大宗商品价格提供一定程度的支 撑。 国外菜油供 ...

第二部分 基本面分析 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 09 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8190 | (40) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8450 | | | | 8470 | 8350 | 280 | | 0 | 260 | 0 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8648 | (58) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8598 | | | | 8658 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for the oil and fat market is that the futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions on the 05 contract when the prices have pulled back significantly. [5][6][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8298, up 42; palm oil 9318, up 10; and rapeseed oil 9918, up 57. The basis of each variety showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 196, 22, and 370 respectively, all showing a decline. [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (1020), up 32; the OI - Y spread was 1620, up 15; and the OI - P spread was 600, up 47. The oil - meal ratio was 2.87, down 0.01. [3] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (144), and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (941). [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 41st week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 126.5, 54.8, and 57.1 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventories of each variety changed to different extents. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,044,784 tons, a 3.4% increase from the same period last month. [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a 0.83% decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and the basis is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and one can consider lightly testing long positions on the 05 contract when the price pulls back. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 126.51 million tons, a 1.31% increase from last week. The supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. One can consider lightly testing long positions on the 05 contract when the price pulls back. [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the coastal inventory was 57.1 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has widened, and the basis is stable. The inventory reduction trend is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the purchase and policy changes. [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the oil and fat futures prices will fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions when the prices have pulled back significantly. [11] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [11] - **Options**: Wait and see. [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of various oils, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND. [14][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory reduction process in palm oil producing areas is slow, and there is a lack of strong upward drivers. It is possible that the oscillating market will continue until the end of the year. Further price movement of palm oil depends on the B50 storyline and production issues [3][5][6]. - Soybean oil lacks an independent driving force. The price of US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate with crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The domestic soybean oil trend depends on South American weather, export sustainability, and the outcome of China - US trade negotiations [2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: The seasonal production reduction in producing areas has not arrived, and Indian buying has slowed down due to the Diwali festival. The palm oil 01 contract maintained a small - scale oscillation, with a weekly decline of 1.90%. Attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [2]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, soybean oil is difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector. It also fluctuates with China - US economic and trade relations. The soybean oil 01 contract declined by 0.82% last week [2]. 3.2 This Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: The MPOB report confirmed the inventory pressure in Malaysia in September (over 2.3 million tons). The narrowing spread between UCO FOB and CPO FOB in Malaysia since September implies a return to normal domestic consumption. However, the impact of potential export tariffs on UCO and POME is difficult to judge as a direct negative. In Indonesia, the inventory is estimated to be between 2 - 3 million tons in the third quarter, and the annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. The demand in the Indian market is not optimistic, and the international demand in the fourth quarter lacks further stimulation. It is likely that the inventory in producing areas will increase to the level at the end of 2023 by the end of the year, lacking strong upward drivers [3]. - Soybean oil: The support level of the cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation by the end of the year. The final announcement of RVO may be delayed, and the price of US soybean oil will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The overall soybean sowing progress in Brazil is favorable, and the global soybean supply pattern in 2025/2026 is large. In the domestic market, the arrival of soybeans until January has almost no gap, and the export demand may keep the domestic soybean oil inventory reduction process until March next year. Attention should be paid to the outcome of China - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [5]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Palm oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 9,438 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,446 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,260 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,308 yuan/ton, and the decline was 1.90%. The trading volume was 2,345,011 lots, and the position decreased by 29,917 lots [8]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: The opening price was 8,282 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,330 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,256 yuan/ton, and the decline was 0.82%. The trading volume was 1,242,800 lots, and the position decreased by 4,334 lots [8]. 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - Production and inventory in Malaysia: The production situation in October is still good, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in October [10]. - Inventory in Indonesia: After the third quarter, the inventory is expected to be higher than last year's level, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia is declining [12]. - Export volume in Malaysia: From October 1 - 15, the palm oil export volume was 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase compared to the same period last month [10][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Short-term oil price increase lacks momentum, palm oil may experience a correction, and holders of long positions can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to buy on dips. - YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP spreads can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to widen after a correction. - Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [6][9][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8372 with a decrease of 18. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8572, 8722, and 8512 respectively. The basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin is 350, 200, and 140 respectively, with corresponding increases of 10, 0, and 10. For palm oil, the closing price of 2601 is 9414 with a decrease of 86. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9384, 9464, and 9554 respectively. The basis for palm oil in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is -30, 50, and 140 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0, 30, and 0. For rapeseed oil, the closing price of 2601 is 9809 with a decrease of 44. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9929, 9849, and 9849 respectively. The basis for rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong is 120 and 40 respectively, with no change [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 268 with a decrease of 2, for palm oil is 260 with an increase of 8, and for rapeseed oil is 157 with a decrease of 13 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The Y - P spread for the 01 contract is -1042 with an increase of 68, the OI - Y spread is 1437 with a decrease of 26, the OI - P spread is 395 with an increase of 42, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.75 with a decrease of 0.0005 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a盘面 profit of -242, with a CNF price of 1120 for the 9 - month shipment. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 10 - month shipment is 1075, and the 盘面 profit is -751 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 34th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 109.4 million tons, palm oil is 58.2 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 64.6 million tons [3]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 39.42 million tons of 24/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 2989.56 million tons. They also sold 11.89 million tons of 25/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 78.96 million tons. The total sales of all - season soybeans for the week were 51.65 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 7147.94 million tons. As of August 20, the cumulative export sales registration of 24/25 - season soybeans was 846.2 million tons, and that of 25/26 - season soybeans was 0 million tons [5]. - **Domestic Market**: There were many rumors about rapeseed today. After the rumors were refuted in the afternoon, the oil prices rebounded. As of August 22, 2025 (week 34), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country was 58.21 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.70%, and it is at a slightly higher - than - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes have decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market has changed little, and the basis has increased steadily. The soybean oil futures price closed slightly lower after oscillating. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country was 118.6 million tons, an increase of 4.33 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.79%, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the average of the past three years. The rapeseed oil futures price closed slightly lower after oscillating. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 44,800 tons, with an operating rate of 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally [5][6][9]. Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term oil price increase lacks momentum, and there may be a correction, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to buy on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP spreads can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to widen after a correction [11]. - **Options Strategy**: Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [12]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of Y, P, and OI, the Y - P 01 spread, and the OI - Y 01 spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may correct, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 is 8456 with a decline of 32. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8656, 8796, and 8586 respectively, and the basis and their changes vary. The closing price of palm oil 2601 is 9500 with a decline of 82, and the spot prices and basis in different regions also have corresponding values and changes. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2601 is 9821 with a decline of 70, and the spot prices and basis in different regions are presented as well [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 300 with a decline of 8; for palm oil, it is 262 with a decline of 30; for rapeseed oil, it is 167 with a decline of 7 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1044 with an increase of 50, the OI - Y spread is 1365 with a decline of 38, the OI - P spread is 321 with an increase of 12, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.74 with an increase of 0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's Malaysian & Indonesian盘面利润 is - 178, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1075 with a盘面利润 of - 751 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 109.4 tons (compared with 118.6 tons last week and 114.3 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 58.2 tons (compared with 61.7 tons last week and 59.4 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 64.6 tons (compared with 66.0 tons last week and 42.2 tons last year) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.21 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons (5.70%) from last week, at a slightly above - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation decreased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there were rumors of 2 far - month vessel purchases. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 227 tons, and the operating rate was 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 118.6 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons (3.79%) from last week, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the three - year average for the same period. The basis was stable [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 600. There were rumors of near - month rapeseed wash sales. The spot market was sluggish, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, expect the oil prices to correct due to insufficient upward momentum, but the correction range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction [11] - **Options Strategy**: On the sidelines [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - There are 8 figures including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9030, with a basis of 60, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have increased [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 108, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply - The report mentions the supply aspects of imported soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that after a rapid rise, the upward momentum of the oil market has weakened. It warns of potential high - level pullbacks due to changes in events and the dissipation of market sentiment. It also provides specific analyses and trading strategies for different oil varieties [6][10][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The 2509 closing prices for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 8126, 8520, and 9721 respectively. The spot basis varies by region and variety. For example, the basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 240 [4]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 68, 12, and 87 respectively, with corresponding drops of 6, 20, and 23 [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract spreads for Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P are 394, 1595, and 1201 respectively, with changes of - 14, 0, and 11. The oil - to - meal ratio is 2.68, with an increase of 0.02 [4]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a 1013 (236) profit, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1106, with a profit of - 1224 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 24th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 37.3 million tons, palm oil is 41.0 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 75.8 million tons [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From June 1st - 20th, 2025, the yield increased by 2.67%, OER decreased by 0.03%, and production increased by 2.5% [6]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. The national commercial inventory is 43.49 million tons, a 6.18% increase from last week. The import profit gap has widened, and the basis is stable with a slight decline [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. The soybean crushing volume last week was 238.42 million tons, and the inventory is 88.63 million tons, a 4.64% increase from last week. The basis is stable [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. The coastal crushing volume last week was 5.35 million tons, and the inventory is 75.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week. The import profit gap has widened, and the basis is stable with a slight increase [10]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: After a rapid rise, the upward momentum of the oil market has weakened. Be cautious of high - level pullbacks due to event changes and sentiment dissipation [12]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments The report provides 8 figures, including those related to spot basis, month - to - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US relations and tariff issues affect the market [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in March decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,100, with a basis of 286, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On May 5th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100 [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,600, with a basis of 576, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On May 5th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,200 [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,500, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On May 5th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are increasing [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4] 3.4 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stocks - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production - reduction season [5] - **Negative**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]