油脂交易策略
Search documents
银河期货油脂日报-20250903
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 13:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the rise of oils and fats will be weak and a correction will occur, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or patiently wait for the correction and then try to go long at low prices. The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. One can also consider going long on P1 - 5 at low prices and the OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366 with a rise of 10; palm oil 9368 with a fall of 54; and rapeseed oil 9727 with a fall of 39. The basis of different varieties and regions showed different changes, such as the soybean oil basis in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and the palm oil basis in Tianjin was 130 with a fall of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 296 with a rise of 8, palm oil was 220 with a fall of 26, and rapeseed oil was 169 with no change [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1002 with a rise of 64, the OI - Y spread was 1361 with a fall of 49, the OI - P spread was 359 with a rise of 15, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a fall of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil盘面利润 from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 209, and the CNF price was 1118; the 盘面利润 of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 776, and the FOB price was 1067 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 35th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 123.9 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 61.0 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 billion tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; the output is expected to be 1.86 billion tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; and the export volume is expected to be 1.45 billion tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.01 million tons, a 4.81% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was weak, and palm oil may correct [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 123.88 million tons, a 4.45% increase from the previous week. The basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was lack of power, and soybean oil was more resistant to decline [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline marginally, which supported the price [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct with limited decline. Long - position holders can partially take profits and partially hold; non - position holders can short or wait for correction to go long [11]. - **Arbitrage**: The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, short after the rebound; go long on P1 - 5 at low prices; OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads of Y 1 - 5, P 1 - 5, OI 1 - 5, as well as the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][18].
银河期货油脂日报-20250828
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 14:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Short-term oil price increase lacks momentum, palm oil may experience a correction, and holders of long positions can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to buy on dips. - YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP spreads can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to widen after a correction. - Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [6][9][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8372 with a decrease of 18. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8572, 8722, and 8512 respectively. The basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin is 350, 200, and 140 respectively, with corresponding increases of 10, 0, and 10. For palm oil, the closing price of 2601 is 9414 with a decrease of 86. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9384, 9464, and 9554 respectively. The basis for palm oil in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is -30, 50, and 140 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0, 30, and 0. For rapeseed oil, the closing price of 2601 is 9809 with a decrease of 44. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9929, 9849, and 9849 respectively. The basis for rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong is 120 and 40 respectively, with no change [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 268 with a decrease of 2, for palm oil is 260 with an increase of 8, and for rapeseed oil is 157 with a decrease of 13 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The Y - P spread for the 01 contract is -1042 with an increase of 68, the OI - Y spread is 1437 with a decrease of 26, the OI - P spread is 395 with an increase of 42, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.75 with a decrease of 0.0005 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a盘面 profit of -242, with a CNF price of 1120 for the 9 - month shipment. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 10 - month shipment is 1075, and the 盘面 profit is -751 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 34th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 109.4 million tons, palm oil is 58.2 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 64.6 million tons [3]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 39.42 million tons of 24/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 2989.56 million tons. They also sold 11.89 million tons of 25/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 78.96 million tons. The total sales of all - season soybeans for the week were 51.65 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 7147.94 million tons. As of August 20, the cumulative export sales registration of 24/25 - season soybeans was 846.2 million tons, and that of 25/26 - season soybeans was 0 million tons [5]. - **Domestic Market**: There were many rumors about rapeseed today. After the rumors were refuted in the afternoon, the oil prices rebounded. As of August 22, 2025 (week 34), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country was 58.21 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.70%, and it is at a slightly higher - than - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes have decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market has changed little, and the basis has increased steadily. The soybean oil futures price closed slightly lower after oscillating. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country was 118.6 million tons, an increase of 4.33 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.79%, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the average of the past three years. The rapeseed oil futures price closed slightly lower after oscillating. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 44,800 tons, with an operating rate of 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally [5][6][9]. Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term oil price increase lacks momentum, and there may be a correction, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to buy on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP spreads can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to widen after a correction [11]. - **Options Strategy**: Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [12]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of Y, P, and OI, the Y - P 01 spread, and the OI - Y 01 spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18].
银河期货油脂日报-20250826
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 12:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may correct, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 is 8456 with a decline of 32. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8656, 8796, and 8586 respectively, and the basis and their changes vary. The closing price of palm oil 2601 is 9500 with a decline of 82, and the spot prices and basis in different regions also have corresponding values and changes. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2601 is 9821 with a decline of 70, and the spot prices and basis in different regions are presented as well [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 300 with a decline of 8; for palm oil, it is 262 with a decline of 30; for rapeseed oil, it is 167 with a decline of 7 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1044 with an increase of 50, the OI - Y spread is 1365 with a decline of 38, the OI - P spread is 321 with an increase of 12, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.74 with an increase of 0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's Malaysian & Indonesian盘面利润 is - 178, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1075 with a盘面利润 of - 751 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 109.4 tons (compared with 118.6 tons last week and 114.3 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 58.2 tons (compared with 61.7 tons last week and 59.4 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 64.6 tons (compared with 66.0 tons last week and 42.2 tons last year) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.21 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons (5.70%) from last week, at a slightly above - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation decreased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there were rumors of 2 far - month vessel purchases. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 227 tons, and the operating rate was 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 118.6 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons (3.79%) from last week, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the three - year average for the same period. The basis was stable [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 600. There were rumors of near - month rapeseed wash sales. The spot market was sluggish, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, expect the oil prices to correct due to insufficient upward momentum, but the correction range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction [11] - **Options Strategy**: On the sidelines [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - There are 8 figures including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18]
银河期货油脂日报-20250428
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 15:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the impact of the tariff war gradually fades, the oil and fat market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term prices remaining volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil may weaken [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on April 28, 2025, were 7814, 8174, and 9333 respectively, with price drops. The basis of each variety showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 76, 48, and 187 respectively, with changes of 0, 4, and 32 [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (360), 1519, and 1159 respectively, with changes of 82, (53), and 29. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62, with a change of 0.0001 [4]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of (470), and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1080, with a negative profit of (1189) [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 16th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 65.0, 38.4, and 79.9 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: There are rumors that the EPA may postpone the update of RVO standards until the second half of the year [6]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: Affected by US biodiesel rumors, palm oil futures prices fell by over 2%. As of April 25, 2025, the commercial inventory decreased, and the import profit deficit widened. It is expected to maintain a tight inventory, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations [6]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The soybean crushing volume increased last week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the inventory may gradually increase, and the basis may weaken. The short - term price will fluctuate, and YP09 can be considered to be expanded at low prices [6][8]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The crushing volume of rapeseed increased last week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The import profit deficit narrowed. The short - term price will fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term oil and fat prices will remain volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive factors, while palm oil may weaken [10]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Expand YP09 at low prices [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the historical trends of basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oil and fat varieties [13][16]