1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil may confirm a short - term bottom if Malaysia's December production drops to around 1.7 million tons. Currently, valuation is not low and the driving force is not strong, so short - term range trading is recommended [7][10]. - Soybean oil is expected to trade in a range temporarily. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the domestic soybean oil spread. It awaits the thematic resonance of the oil and fat sector after stabilization [9][10]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate next week. During the New Year's Day holiday, risks from the external market should be avoided [25]. - Corn futures prices rebounded last week. In the future, attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market, including the inventory accumulation in northern ports, the inventory building of traders, and the supply from the grassroots level [33][37]. - The international sugar market is expected to trade in a low - level range. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak basis. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's production and industrial policies, and domestic import policy changes [57][83]. - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger shock, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the impact of downstream profits and import profits on price upward momentum [84][101]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to weakly fluctuate. In the futures market, attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread of the LH2601 contract and set stop - loss and take - profit points [105][106]. - The peanut spot market is expected to have light trading. The futures market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the purchase strategies of large oil mills [120]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Last Week's Situation - Palm oil: In December, the production decline was close to 10%, and high - frequency export data was good. The 05 contract rose 2.78% last week [5]. - Soybean oil: Lacking South American weather speculation, it mainly rebounded with palm oil, and the 05 contract rose 1.40% last week [6]. 3.1.2 This Week's Situation - Palm oil: MPOA data shows a December production decline of 8%, approaching a production level of 1.75 million tons. ITS data shows a 2% increase in exports in the first 25 days. It is likely to start the seasonal de - stocking process in December [7]. - Soybean oil: South American soybean prospects are positive, putting pressure on the US soybean market. In the first quarter of next year, domestic port soybean inventories will decline, supporting domestic soybean - related spot and near - month contracts [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean 3.2.1 Last Week's Situation - US soybean futures prices fluctuated with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly volatile, and soybean futures prices rose slightly [21]. - International soybean market: China's soybean purchases were limited, and the import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week [21]. - Domestic soybean meal spot: Volume,提货 volume, and basis increased slightly, while inventory was basically flat week - on - week and increased year - on - year. Soybean crushing volume decreased [22][23]. - Domestic soybean spot: Prices were stable with a slight upward trend. State reserve price increases for purchases had a positive impact, while state reserve sales restricted upward momentum [24]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Outlook - Both soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate. During the New Year's Day holiday, risks from the external market should be avoided [25]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Market Review - Spot market: Corn prices slightly declined last week. In North China, prices of some regions rose, while in Northeast China, prices were relatively stable [32]. - Futures market: Futures prices rebounded last week. The basis of the main contract weakened [33]. 3.3.2 Market Outlook - CBOT corn prices rose due to strong export sales and expected production cuts by the US Department of Agriculture [34]. - Wheat prices declined, and the auction of imported corn restarted. Corn starch inventory increased [35][36]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market, including inventory accumulation in northern ports, inventory building of traders, and supply from the grassroots level [37]. 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 This Week's Market Review - International market: The US dollar index declined, and the price of New York raw sugar rose. Fund net long positions increased slightly. Brazil, India, and Thailand all had increases in sugar production [55]. - Domestic market: The spot price of Guangxi sugar groups rose, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar also rose. The basis of the main contract decreased significantly. The import volume of sugar and syrup changed [56]. 3.4.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - International market: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's production and industrial policies [57][83]. - Domestic market: It is expected to maintain a weak basis. Attention should be paid to domestic import policy changes [57][83]. 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Market Situation - ICE cotton rebounded due to a weaker US dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved US cotton weekly export data, but the upward momentum was limited [84]. - Domestic cotton market: Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. However, with the expected increase in spinning capacity in 2026, the market is not pessimistic about the annual demand in 2025/26. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward driven by market sentiment [85]. 3.5.2 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger shock, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the impact of downstream profits and import profits on price upward momentum [101]. 3.6 Live Pigs 3.6.1 This Week's Market Review - Spot market: Pig prices were strong. Supply decreased due to enterprises reducing slaughter and farmers' strong reluctance to sell. Demand decreased but was still in the peak season [103]. - Futures market: Futures prices were strongly volatile. The basis of the LH2601 contract increased [104]. 3.6.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot market: Prices are expected to weakly fluctuate. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a vacuum period, and supply pressure will increase [105]. - Futures market: Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread of the LH2601 contract and set stop - loss and take - profit points [106]. 3.7 Peanuts 3.7.1 Market Review - Spot market: Peanut prices were stable. Supply pressure increased, and demand from food processing enterprises and trading enterprises was weak [119]. - Futures market: Futures prices declined last week [119]. 3.7.2 Market Outlook - Spot market: High - quality peanuts in Henan are relatively resistant to price drops, while commodity peanuts are under pressure. The market is expected to have light trading [120]. - Futures market: It is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the purchase strategies of large oil mills [120].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the palm oil price can be short - term confirmed at the bottom, but long - term layout requires further observation. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and the driving force is not strong, so short - term interval operation is the main approach. Long - term layout of oils still needs more verification and patience. [3][6] - The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - In December, the production reduction was close to 10%, gradually fulfilling the production reduction expectation. High - frequency export data was good, providing short - term support for palm oil. Meanwhile, technical buying was strong, and the 05 contract rose 2.78% last week. [1] Soybean Oil - Lacking South American weather speculation, the upward driving force of US soybeans was limited. It mainly rebounded with palm oil, and the 05 contract of soybean oil rose 1.40% last week. [2] 2. This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - MPOA data shows that the production reduction in December was 8%, gradually approaching the production level of 1.75 million tons. ITS data shows that exports in the first 25 days increased by 2%. In December, it is very likely to start the seasonal de - stocking process. A large number of buying orders emerged at the technical buying point of 8200, and it has returned to the normal trading choice of buying on dips during the production - reduction season. [3] - Although more monthly production data is still needed to verify whether the current high - yield of palm oil is due to improved park management and increased labor or factors such as tree age and rainfall. With the arrival of high - intensity rainfall in the rainy season, if the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the short - term bottom of palm oil can be confirmed. Long - term layout needs further observation. If the month - on - month production reduction in January is still less than 10%, a normal monthly increase of 100,000 tons in 2026 production has to be considered, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have stabilized, and the refining profit in Indonesia has continued to rise. After short - term demand stimulation, Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts. Indonesia announced the biodiesel allocation volume of 15.64 million kiloliters for 2026 within the scope of the B40 plan, which will increase the industrial demand for palm oil in Indonesia by about 800,000 tons next year. This figure is not enough to offset the optimistic expectation of palm oil production growth in Indonesia next year, but the market reaction was flat, even showing a sentiment of "bad news is out". This reflects the market's expectation for B50 next year and that the current demand is not the main contradiction. The de - stocking process during the low - production period dominates the trading rhythm. If the inventory cannot be reduced to below 1.8 million tons after June next year, whether B50 can be promoted in the second half of the year will become a key variable and hit the market's confidence in going long. [3] - In the consumer areas, the recent import profit of CPO in India has declined. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's ship - buying, showing certain marginal demand, it was not enough to cause the short - squeeze situation since June. The import profit inversion in China has widened, and the speed of releasing the pressure from the producing areas is not fast. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. US soybean oil is unlikely to get further stimulation in the short term, and it mainly operates in an interval based on fundamental trading, without upward breakthrough momentum, but its support is actually stronger than that of Malaysian palm oil. The upward opening of the palm oil price space needs to expect a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, waiting for the producing areas to start de - stocking and the production in the first and second quarters to be lower than expected to inject imagination space for the new year. [3] Soybean Oil - As of this week, the growth of soybeans in South American countries is generally good, and the production prospect is positive. In the next half - month, the rainfall in various places in Brazil and Paraguay will continue to alternate, which is generally conducive to maintaining the current good growth state of soybeans. However, the core producing areas in Argentina will face the first round of high - temperature and little - rain weather this year, and attention should be paid to the changes in the later rainfall forecast. The pressure of the good prospect of South American soybeans is strongly reflected in the US soybean market. If Argentina still cannot develop a drought later, it is temporarily difficult to see the height of the rebound of the January CBOT soybeans. It is expected that the main form of January's fluctuation will be oscillatory stabilization. [5] - Against the background of fewer ship - buying in China in the first quarter of next year, the suspension of the auction of state - reserve imported soybeans and the ambiguous news of strengthened customs quarantine on soybean imports in China prompted the domestic soybean products to rebound strongly this week. The soybean inventory at domestic ports will accelerate to decline from January to February, which is conducive to supporting the strength of domestic soybean spot and near - month contracts. The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. Insufficient export demand and arrival of goods enable domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly de - stocking process until March or April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5] 3. [Disk Basic Market Data] - **Price and Volume Data**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, position volume, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil main contracts are provided. For example, the palm oil main contract opened at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a high of 8,610 yuan/ton, a low of 8,230 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,568 yuan/ton, up 2.78%. [8] - **Spread Data**: The current and previous week's values and changes of spreads such as the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, palm oil 15 spread, soybean oil 15 spread, and rapeseed oil 15 spread are presented. For example, the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,421 yuan/ton this week, up 45.45% from last week. [8] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The current and previous week's values and changes of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are given. For example, the number of palm oil warehouse receipts this week was 260 hands, a decrease of 336 hands from last week. [8] 4. [Core Data of Oil Fundamentals] - **Production and Inventory Data**: Graphs show that Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in December is close to 10%, and although the inventory at the end of the year is still high, it is likely to de - stock in December. Indonesia's inventory at the end of the year is expected to return to a neutral and relatively loose level. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 600,000 tons. [10][12][17] - **Price and Profit Data**: Graphs display the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, India's palm oil import profit, the CNF price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil, the basis of palm oil (South China) for 01, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu). [12][16] - **Export and Rainfall Data**: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from the same period last month. Graphs also show the POGO price difference, Malaysia's and Indonesia's weekly rainfall conditions (including two - week forecasts). [13][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term may show a state of "bad news exhausted" after the release of next week's MPOB report. The downward drive of the supply side in the production - reduction season requires additional high - yield to stimulate. The upward opening of the palm oil price space can only expect a smooth production reduction in the fourth quarter, waiting for new story imagination space injected by floods in the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter. - With the callback pressure of palm oil, soybean oil is the main choice for multi - allocation, but it has no independent upward drive. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be finally reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports. [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - **Palm Oil**: The market worried that Malaysia's production in the fourth quarter would still be large, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. However, India's buying interest improved, and there were signs of stabilization in the second half of the week in the producing areas. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.59% last week, may stabilize in the short - term, and there is still a possibility of a second dip by the end of the year. Attention should be paid to the support at the 8400 - 8600 level. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, soybean oil is difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly fluctuates weakly following the oil and fat sector. However, the strong export demand of soybean oil and the inevitable inventory - reduction process make soybean oil still maintain a relatively strong operation among oil and fat varieties. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.39% last week. [1] This Week's Viewpoints and Logic - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally good, which may make the fourth - quarter production above the level of the same period last year. After the inventory in October accumulated to nearly 2.5 million tons, the year - end inventory will slowly decline to around 2.3 million tons, a historically high level, and continue to decline to about 2 million tons by next March. The market has not fully priced in the high - level production in November and December (1.75 million and 1.65 million tons respectively). In Indonesia, affected by the possible tax cut in December, the export pressure in November is large, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has been declining, giving room for the consumer areas to replenish stocks. Overall, it is very likely that the inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia will recover to more than 5.5 million tons by the end of the year, even approaching 6 million tons. The Indian CPO's recent import profit has risen rapidly, which may play a certain price - bottoming role, but there is no additional positive news. The EPA announced new small - refinery exemptions, which is a negative surprise for the biodiesel demand in 2026. Without a substantial improvement in US soybean oil, international oil and fat prices are suppressed and lose the biggest driving force for reversal. [2] - **Soybean Oil**: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined rapidly recently, and there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure by the end of the year. Before the specific blending policy for next year is implemented, it is too early for US soybean oil to rebound. The EPA's new small - refinery exemptions are a negative surprise for the biodiesel demand in 2026. The final release of RVO is likely to be postponed to January next year or later. Before the policy is implemented, the inevitable inventory - accumulation trend of US soybean oil will make it unable to officially reflect the tight - fundamental expectation. The price of US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate following crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and US soybean prices and is still in a downward channel. In November, sufficient rainfall in the central - western part of Brazil and Paraná State is conducive to sowing acceleration. The new - season soybean prospects in the three South American countries are still positive, and a high - yield pattern is taking shape. The large - supply pattern of global soybeans in 2025/2026 restricts the upward driving force of the international soybean system. The boost effect of China's promised purchase of US soybeans on US soybean exports is limited. In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January. The export demand may keep domestic soybean oil in a monthly inventory - reduction process until March next year. Therefore, among oil and fat varieties, especially when palm oil still has callback pressure, soybean oil is the main choice for multi - allocation, but it has no independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be finally reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports. [4] Basic Market Data of the Futures Market | Futures Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 8,732 yuan/ton | 8,756 yuan/ton | 8,562 yuan/ton | 8,660 yuan/ton | - 1.59% | | Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 8,108 yuan/ton | 8,230 yuan/ton | 8,062 yuan/ton | 8,184 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous Contract | 9,396 yuan/ton | 9,610 yuan/ton | 9,299 yuan/ton | 9,533 yuan/ton | 0.78% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 4,204 ringgit/ton | 4,219 ringgit/ton | 4,080 ringgit/ton | 4,110 ringgit/ton | - 2.26% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 48.78 cents/pound | 50.33 cents/pound | 48.27 cents/pound | 49.63 cents/pound | 2.08% | | Futures Variety | Trading Volume | Trading Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,782,635 lots | 162,078 | 416,049 lots | 23,054 | | Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,620,557 lots | - 168,991 | 471,543 lots | - 21,478 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,641,662 lots | - 18,678 | 210,490 lots | - 10,248 | | Spread Variety | This Week's Closing Price | Last Week's Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Soybean 01 Spread | 1,349 yuan/ton | 1,294 yuan/ton | 4.25% | | Soybean - Palm 01 Spread | - 476 yuan/ton | - 636 yuan/ton | 25.16% | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | - 70 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 40.00% | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 224 yuan/ton | 170 yuan/ton | 31.76% | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 405 yuan/ton | 281 yuan/ton | 44.13% | | Warehouse Receipt Variety | This Week | Last Week | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | 650 lots | 0 | 650 | | Huanghai (not clear what it is) | 26,014 lots | 27,644 lots | - 1,630 | | Rapeseed Oil | 5,024 lots | 7,540 lots | - 2,516 | [7]