Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term may show a state of "bad news exhausted" after the release of next week's MPOB report. The downward drive of the supply side in the production - reduction season requires additional high - yield to stimulate. The upward opening of the palm oil price space can only expect a smooth production reduction in the fourth quarter, waiting for new story imagination space injected by floods in the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter. - With the callback pressure of palm oil, soybean oil is the main choice for multi - allocation, but it has no independent upward drive. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be finally reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports. [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - **Palm Oil**: The market worried that Malaysia's production in the fourth quarter would still be large, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. However, India's buying interest improved, and there were signs of stabilization in the second half of the week in the producing areas. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.59% last week, may stabilize in the short - term, and there is still a possibility of a second dip by the end of the year. Attention should be paid to the support at the 8400 - 8600 level. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, soybean oil is difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly fluctuates weakly following the oil and fat sector. However, the strong export demand of soybean oil and the inevitable inventory - reduction process make soybean oil still maintain a relatively strong operation among oil and fat varieties. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.39% last week. [1] This Week's Viewpoints and Logic - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally good, which may make the fourth - quarter production above the level of the same period last year. After the inventory in October accumulated to nearly 2.5 million tons, the year - end inventory will slowly decline to around 2.3 million tons, a historically high level, and continue to decline to about 2 million tons by next March. The market has not fully priced in the high - level production in November and December (1.75 million and 1.65 million tons respectively). In Indonesia, affected by the possible tax cut in December, the export pressure in November is large, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has been declining, giving room for the consumer areas to replenish stocks. Overall, it is very likely that the inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia will recover to more than 5.5 million tons by the end of the year, even approaching 6 million tons. The Indian CPO's recent import profit has risen rapidly, which may play a certain price - bottoming role, but there is no additional positive news. The EPA announced new small - refinery exemptions, which is a negative surprise for the biodiesel demand in 2026. Without a substantial improvement in US soybean oil, international oil and fat prices are suppressed and lose the biggest driving force for reversal. [2] - **Soybean Oil**: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined rapidly recently, and there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure by the end of the year. Before the specific blending policy for next year is implemented, it is too early for US soybean oil to rebound. The EPA's new small - refinery exemptions are a negative surprise for the biodiesel demand in 2026. The final release of RVO is likely to be postponed to January next year or later. Before the policy is implemented, the inevitable inventory - accumulation trend of US soybean oil will make it unable to officially reflect the tight - fundamental expectation. The price of US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate following crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and US soybean prices and is still in a downward channel. In November, sufficient rainfall in the central - western part of Brazil and Paraná State is conducive to sowing acceleration. The new - season soybean prospects in the three South American countries are still positive, and a high - yield pattern is taking shape. The large - supply pattern of global soybeans in 2025/2026 restricts the upward driving force of the international soybean system. The boost effect of China's promised purchase of US soybeans on US soybean exports is limited. In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January. The export demand may keep domestic soybean oil in a monthly inventory - reduction process until March next year. Therefore, among oil and fat varieties, especially when palm oil still has callback pressure, soybean oil is the main choice for multi - allocation, but it has no independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be finally reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports. [4] Basic Market Data of the Futures Market | Futures Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 8,732 yuan/ton | 8,756 yuan/ton | 8,562 yuan/ton | 8,660 yuan/ton | - 1.59% | | Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 8,108 yuan/ton | 8,230 yuan/ton | 8,062 yuan/ton | 8,184 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous Contract | 9,396 yuan/ton | 9,610 yuan/ton | 9,299 yuan/ton | 9,533 yuan/ton | 0.78% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 4,204 ringgit/ton | 4,219 ringgit/ton | 4,080 ringgit/ton | 4,110 ringgit/ton | - 2.26% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 48.78 cents/pound | 50.33 cents/pound | 48.27 cents/pound | 49.63 cents/pound | 2.08% | | Futures Variety | Trading Volume | Trading Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,782,635 lots | 162,078 | 416,049 lots | 23,054 | | Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,620,557 lots | - 168,991 | 471,543 lots | - 21,478 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,641,662 lots | - 18,678 | 210,490 lots | - 10,248 | | Spread Variety | This Week's Closing Price | Last Week's Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Soybean 01 Spread | 1,349 yuan/ton | 1,294 yuan/ton | 4.25% | | Soybean - Palm 01 Spread | - 476 yuan/ton | - 636 yuan/ton | 25.16% | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | - 70 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 40.00% | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 224 yuan/ton | 170 yuan/ton | 31.76% | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 405 yuan/ton | 281 yuan/ton | 44.13% | | Warehouse Receipt Variety | This Week | Last Week | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | 650 lots | 0 | 650 | | Huanghai (not clear what it is) | 26,014 lots | 27,644 lots | - 1,630 | | Rapeseed Oil | 5,024 lots | 7,540 lots | - 2,516 | [7]