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油脂周报:油脂跟随油价宽幅波动-20260314
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-14 14:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up the prices of oils and fats. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to relatively low levels. The report maintains a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.29% and oil extraction rate down 0.52%. Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 230 million tons, down 49 million tons month - on - month and up 86 million tons year - on - year. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 128 million tons, exports were 113 million tons, and inventory was 270 million tons. From March 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased compared to the same period last month. As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 175 million tons. In the week of March 6, the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats was 198 million tons [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Due to the geopolitical crisis, short - term oil and fat prices are driven up by rising crude oil prices. With low inventories in major consumer countries, the report is bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis of oils and fats is neutral, the profit of palm oil imports is low, and the biodiesel price difference combined with inventory measurement is neutral. Malaysia's seasonal production cut is bullish, the geopolitical crisis is bullish, and low inventories in China and India are also bullish [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to buy on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides supply - demand balance sheets for Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil, global soybean oil, and global rapeseed oil, showing production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio data from 2004/05 to 2025/26 (February and March), along with month - on - month and year - on - year changes [14][15][16][17]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - The report presents multiple graphs related to the basis, spreads, and month - on - month differences of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the 5 - month contract basis, 5 - 9 contract month - on - month differences, and the spread between soybean oil 5 - month and palm oil 5 - month contracts [21][24][26][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - The report shows graphs of monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, weekly soybean arrivals and port inventory, and monthly rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports [32][33][35][36]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: Graphs show the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats and India's imported vegetable oil inventory [40]. - **Palm Oil**: Graphs display palm oil's near - month import profit and commercial inventory [42]. - **Soybean Oil**: Graphs show the spot crushing margin of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills [44]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Graphs present the average coastal spot crushing margin of rapeseed and rapeseed oil commercial inventory [46]. - **Origin Palm Oil Inventory**: Graphs show the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [49]. 3.5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil**: Graphs show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: Graphs show the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Transactions**: Graphs show the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: Graphs show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].
油脂月报:弱现实,强预期-20260104
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-04 13:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the domestic edible oil market is weak, with high palm oil production in major producing areas, sluggish exports, and high inventory levels. The inventory of the three major domestic edible oils is also at a relatively high level. However, in the medium term, the small number of domestic soybean purchases and expected low arrivals from February to March provide some support to prices. In the long term, there may be a significant increase in the total consumption of edible oils for U.S. biodiesel in 2026, and there are expectations of a month-on-month decline in palm oil production in major producing areas. Overall, the present situation is weak, but the outlook is optimistic, and edible oil prices may not be far from the bottom range [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December, the prices of the three major domestic edible oils declined. As of December 31, the closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 2.21% from the previous month; the May palm oil contract closed at 8,584 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton or 1.08%; the May rapeseed oil contract closed at 9,087 yuan/ton, down 414 yuan/ton or 4.36%. In terms of spreads, the May - September spread of soybean oil contracts was 96 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous month; the May - September spread of palm oil contracts was 120 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the May - September spread of rapeseed oil contracts was 32 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the May soybean oil contract was 554 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous month; the basis of the May palm oil contract was -58 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the May rapeseed oil contract was 734 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Information**: According to MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil production in November was 1.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%; exports were 1.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45%; the ending inventory was 2.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.43%. According to GAPKI data, Indonesia's palm oil production (CPO + PPO) in October was 4.76 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78%; exports were 2.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.19%; the ending inventory was 2.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.75%. According to sample data released by MYSTEEL, as of December 26, the inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.27% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.06%. The arrival of soybeans was 6.53 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.21% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.44% [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait-and-see approach [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of May contracts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties, including the May - September spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, and the spread between May soybean oil and May palm oil contracts, etc. [19][21][23] 3.3 Supply Side - The report provides multiple charts showing the monthly production and exports of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - The report provides multiple charts showing the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [37][39][41] 3.5 Cost Side - The report provides multiple charts showing the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [49][52] 3.6 Demand Side - **Edible Oil Transactions**: The report provides charts showing the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [57] - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report provides charts showing the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60]