弱现实，强预期 油脂月报 2026/01/04 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 利润及生柴价差 | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 出口 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度、马来、印尼库存 | | 数据 | P：05-58元/吨 Y：05+554元/吨 | 近月马棕到港成本 8932元/吨，棕榈油 | 马棕12月高频出口小幅增加， 减产较多；印尼10月去库，产 | 大豆：北美减种植面积，南美 正在生长 | 国内油脂库存较高，印度库存 同比略低，马来库存偏高，印 | | | OI：05+734元/吨 | 现货8590。生柴价差 中位。 | 量同比中性 | 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 葵籽：全球葵籽小幅减产 ...

Report Title - Fuzzy Demand Drivers and Flocking Supply - Outlook for the Annual Vegetable Oil Market in 2026 [1] Report Date - December 15, 2025 [1] Report Author - Li Junyu, Investment Consulting Practitioner Qualification Number: Z0021380, lijunyu@gtht.com [2] Report Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Vegetable oils are in a situation of weak current reality with improving expectations. In the 25/26 season, the inventory-to-sales ratio of the four major vegetable oils increased slightly. The year 2026 is a period of hibernation and preparation for a breakthrough. The inventory increase of only 1 million tons is easily affected by the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil and unexpected palm oil production. Starting from the first quarter of next year, there is room for palm oil, domestic soybean oil, and US soybean oil to reverse the weak reality. However, the uncertainty of whether palm oil production can increase regularly makes the supply trading full of variables and unsmooth. It is necessary to observe the performance during the low-production period. After the high-production trading is fully priced in, it is advisable to build long positions in palm oil 09 contracts on dips. Soybean oil can also be lightly allocated long in the first quarter. Rapeseed oil prices face the risk of being relatively weak among varieties, and it is mainly recommended to build short positions in rapeseed oil 05 contracts driven by events [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of the Vegetable Oil Market in 2025 - **First Stage (December 2024 - Mid-to-Late January 2025)**: The supply pressure of new Brazilian crops and the depreciation of the real led to a continuous decline in Brazilian soybean premiums since December. The US soybean oil market was affected by pessimistic expectations of the biodiesel policy and declined continuously. Palm oil lacked marginal positive factors. As a result, the entire vegetable oil and oilseed sector was under pressure. Palm oil started a continuous decline after reaching a previous high due to the lack of marginal positive factors. During this period, US soybean oil and crude oil also adjusted significantly. Concerns about the decline in export demand from Malaysia and Indonesia, doubts about whether B40 could be fully implemented, and the possibility that the tax increase associated with B40 might fall short of expectations led investors to view the subsequent driving forces of palm oil with caution [7]. - **Second Stage (Early February - End of March 2025)**: The USDA report at the beginning of the year was unexpectedly positive, leading to a continuous rise in US soybeans. The pessimistic expectations of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy were fully priced in. The cold wave problem in US fuel made US soybean oil temporarily strong. Additionally, the short - term import restrictions on raw materials only provided emotional support to US soybean oil, laying the foundation for the rise in February. After the Spring Festival, soybean oil showed strong momentum, supported by import costs due to slow harvesting in Brazil, unfavorable weather in Argentina, low soybean arrivals in China in the first quarter, and tight near - term supply. The MPOB supply - demand data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January was significantly lower than expected, and production in February was also expected to remain low, with inventory difficult to improve. Combined with the upcoming Ramadan, palm oil had strong fundamental support among vegetable oil varieties. At the same time, rumors of an export ban in the producing areas stimulated palm oil to move strongly due to supply concerns. In March, China's 10% tariff increase on US soybeans stirred market sentiment. The potential for the US - Europe tariff tension to prompt Europe to shift its procurement of soybean - related products to South America might lead to an increase in the potential import cost of soybean oil, causing vegetable oils to maintain a relatively strong pattern in a volatile market [8]. - **Third Stage (April - Mid - June 2025)**: Palm oil fluctuated between strong current reality and weak expectations, and the market had significant differences on when the inflection point would arrive, leading to intense long - short battles. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US reciprocal tariff policy had a systematic impact on the global financial market, causing international oil prices to decline sharply, and the three major vegetable oils followed suit. After the market sentiment stabilized, palm oil traded the recovery of supply and export pressure, and the vegetable oil market entered a bottom - building phase, waiting for new contradictions in the third quarter [9]. - **Fourth Stage (Late June - Early October 2025)**: Driven by both domestic and international factors, vegetable oil varieties started the first smooth upward trend this year, with palm oil rising by 2,000 points. On the demand side, the negative factors such as the cumulative year - on - year decline in apparent demand in China and India, negative growth in European diesel consumption, and cumulative year - on - year decline in US biodiesel production did not support short - selling vegetable oils in the second half of the year. On the supply side, since the second quarter, the market's pessimistic sentiment about Malaysia's palm oil inventory reaching a high of over 2.3 million tons this year has gradually subsided. The high production from April to May released the negative factors in advance. Coupled with the potential production risks during the high - production period from July to August, the price of palm oil reached its low point earlier. Internationally, the positive news of the US RVO policy in mid - June injected upward momentum into the vegetable oil sector. The increase in European carbon targets and changes in the double - carbon ticket rules led to an upward trend in HVO prices since the end of June. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted oil prices, and the European diesel crack spread reached a historical high. Driven by both domestic and international factors, palm oil started a two - month upward trend, rising by 2,000 points. Subsequently, from September to mid - October, palm oil oscillated in a very narrow range between 9,200 and 9,600, waiting for further guidance during the low - production season [10]. - **Fifth Stage (Mid - October 2025 - Present)**: The US biodiesel policy has been delayed, and palm oil maintained high - yield power in the fourth quarter. The trading momentum of the strong expectations under the weak reality was difficult to sustain. US soybean oil gradually fell back to the platform on June 13, and the de - stocking time of Malaysian palm oil was repeatedly postponed. Palm oil prices completely gave back the gains since June, falling back to the price platform in June, creating the second smooth downward trend this year. However, this round of decline was entirely caused by the unexpected over - production of palm oil itself. Soybean oil prices were still supported by the slow ship - buying under the China - US economic and trade relations and the logic of crushing profit repair. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price spread rebounded significantly during this period, rising by nearly 1,000 points; rapeseed oil gradually gave back the premium caused by the China - Canada policy disturbance, and the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread also declined by about 500 points [11]. 2. Outlook for the Supply Side of Vegetable Oils in 2026 - **Overall Supply and Demand**: In the 25/26 season, the global production of the four major vegetable oils is expected to increase by about 4 million tons to 210 million tons, with the growth rate slowing down compared to the previous two seasons. The global production of soybean oil is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons, palm oil by 1.8 million tons, rapeseed oil by 0.4 million tons, and sunflower oil to remain flat year - on - year. The global consumption of the four major vegetable oils is expected to increase by about 5.5 million tons to 209 million tons, recovering from the negative growth in the 24/25 season. This is mainly due to the recovery of India's vegetable oil consumption, the implementation of PSO - B50 in Indonesia in the second half of the year, the full - year plan of B15 in Brazil, and the rebound of the US biodiesel policy. As a result, the global industrial demand is expected to increase by 4.4 million tons year - on - year, including a 1.2 - million - ton increase in palm oil, a 2 - million - ton increase in soybean oil, and an 0.8 - million - ton increase in rapeseed oil. The global ending inventory of the four major vegetable oils is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 25.65 million tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to rise from 12.22% in the previous season to 12.25%. However, the main inventory increase is contributed by palm oil, while soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oils remain in tight balance. The rapid inventory accumulation period of palm oil has been fully priced in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the pressure of vegetable oil inventory reconstruction has been released in advance [19][20]. - **Palm Oil** - **Malaysia**: From January to November 2025, Malaysia's cumulative palm oil production increased by 3.37% year - on - year, and the full - year production is expected to approach 20.2 million tons, an increase of about 0.85 million tons compared to 2024. The continuous high production in the past two years has not only led to a decline in palm oil prices in the fourth quarter but also raised concerns about the supply inflection point. The high production in October and November may be due to less rainfall, the development of mechanized operations, and the increase in foreign labor. Based on the current tree - age structure and historical rainfall conditions, the production potential in 2026 is expected to decline slightly compared to 2025, but considering the positive impact of labor on production, the production in 2026 is estimated to be in the range of 19.6 - 19.8 million tons. Attention should be paid to the possible low - production situation from March to May next year [27][28][30]. - **Indonesia**: From January to September 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil production was 43.33 million tons, an increase of 11% year - on - year, with an increase of 4.55 million tons in the first three quarters. The full - year production is estimated to be about 57.5 million tons, an increase of 4.8 million tons year - on - year. For the production in 2026, two main factors need to be considered: the improvement of the tree - age structure and the production capacity release cycle due to the increase in the planted area in the early stage, and the impact of the transfer of 3 million hectares of illegal plantations to state - owned companies on the unit yield. Overall, the production in 2026 is expected to increase to 58.68 million tons in the GAPKI statistics. However, the relatively dry weather in July this year may lead to lower - than - expected production from April to May next year [39][40][43]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 25/26 season, the global soybean oil production is expected to increase to 71.27 million tons, an increase of 1.46 million tons compared to the previous season, with a significantly slowed growth rate. The global soybean production in the 25/26 season has a small increase compared to the previous year. Except for the United States, the increase in soybean crushing volume in other countries is not significant. The United States' soybean crushing capacity has an average annual growth rate of about 3 - 5% in recent years. Under the background of high crushing profits and high operating rates, the crushing volume in the 25/26 season is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons, and the production of soybean oil is expected to increase by about 0.65 million tons. In Brazil, with the significantly higher old - crop soybean inventory compared to the same period last year, the crushing volume is expected to increase by more than 1 million tons, corresponding to an increase of 0.2 million tons in soybean oil production. Argentina's production is slightly reduced, and China's soybean oil production is expected to increase by 0.6 million tons in the 25/26 season due to the high supply of raw materials and the high cost - effectiveness of soybean oil. The global demand for soybean oil in the 25/26 season is expected to increase to 70.99 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons compared to the previous season, higher than the production increase. The change in the US biofuel policy has a great impact on the industrial demand for US soybean oil next year. The difference between the most pessimistic and the most optimistic scenarios is as high as 2 million tons. Even in the most pessimistic scenario, the US demand for soybean oil in the 25/26 season will increase by at least 1.4 million tons to 13.6 million tons, including 7.1 million tons of industrial consumption. The final global ending inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase by 0.28 million tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio will only slightly increase from 10.34% in the previous season to 10.40%. In the continuation of the soybean bear market, soybean oil first regains demand through price adjustment, greatly weakening the contradiction of inventory accumulation at the margin [55][56]. - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Oil** - **Rapeseed**: In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, and the global rapeseed supply is expected to become looser. According to the USDA's November forecast, the global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 6.27 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season. The rapeseed production in the EU, the main consumer region, is expected to increase by more than 3 million tons year - on - year. Among the main exporting countries, except for Ukraine, the production of other major exporting countries will increase. However, the beginning inventory of rapeseed in the main exporting countries has decreased significantly year - on - year, and the supply pressure of global rapeseed is expected to be postponed. The effective supply (beginning inventory + production) of global rapeseed in the 2025/26 season will increase by 4.15 million tons year - on - year, with an increase rate of 4.2% [65][66]. - **Sunflower Oil**: The production and crushing estimates of sunflower seeds in the EU, Russia, and Ukraine have been revised down again, suppressing the growth of global sunflower oil production this season. The current forecast for global sunflower oil production in the 25/26 season is about 21 million tons, and the year - on - year production increase has shrunk from the initial 2 million tons to almost zero. The sunflower oil supply in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine is much lower than expected, in contrast to the increasing production in Argentina. From January to October 2025, Argentina's sunflower oil exports increased by 30% year - on - year to a multi - year high of 1.36 million tons, and its market share in multiple importing countries has continued to expand. Argentina's sunflower oil exports are expected to further increase in 2026, although recent rainfall has hindered local production by about 0.4 million tons. Affected by this, the price of sunflower oil for near - month delivery remains strong and maintains a premium over other major vegetable oils in the European market [67][68]. 3. Outlook for the Demand Side of Vegetable Oils in 2026 - **China**: In terms of total demand, the domestic consumption of vegetable oils has not shown a counter - trend increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of the four major vegetable oils in China was 22.755 million tons, a decrease of 1.38 million tons compared to the same period last year, with an average monthly decrease of 0.14 million tons. In terms of variety structure, soybean oil's demand share has further increased due to its cost - effectiveness. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of domestic soybean oil was 16.94 million tons, an increase of 0.61 million tons compared to the same period last year, and the monthly average share rose to over 70%. The cumulative apparent consumption of palm oil was 2.42 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to the same period last year, and the monthly average share fell to below 15%. The cumulative apparent consumption of rapeseed oil was 2.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.42 million tons compared to the same period last year, and the monthly average share fell to below 15%. The cumulative apparent consumption of sunflower oil was 0.47 million tons, a decrease of 0.06 million tons compared to the same period last year, and the monthly average share remained at 2 - 3%. The annual apparent demand for soybean oil exceeded 20 million tons (20.4 million tons in the 24/25 season) and is expected to further increase to 20.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. The palm oil consumption in China is expected to remain flat year - on - year, with an estimated annual demand of about 3.15 million tons. The demand for rapeseed oil in China is expected to continue to decline to about 3.4 million tons in the 25/26 season. Overall, the demand for the four major vegetable oils in China decreased by 1.3 million tons to 28.1 million tons in the 24/25 season and is expected to further decline to 27.8 million tons in the 25/26 season [72][73][75]. - **India**: From January to October 2025, India's cumulative imports of edible vegetable oils were 13.07 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the same period last year. Among them, palm oil imports were 6

马棕累库现实施压油脂 油脂周报 2025/12/13 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 基差 出口 | 利润及生柴价差 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度、马来、印尼库存 | | 数据 | P：01-20元/吨 Y：01+260元/吨 马棕11月大幅累库 | 近月马棕到港成本 8930元/吨，棕榈油 | 大豆：北美减种植面积，南美 正在生长 | 国内油脂库存较高，印度库存 同比略低，马来库存偏高，印 | | | OI：01+260元/吨 | 现货8550。生柴价差 中位。 | 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 葵籽：全球葵籽丰产 | 尼库存偏低 | | 多空评分 | 0 -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 印尼9月环比减 ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——上行驱动不足，油脂维持偏弱震荡 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场交易的重点来自于全球油脂的供需平衡问题，核心驱动主要在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心 矛盾主要为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力能否被增长的需求所消化。11月高频数据显示马棕继续增产，产地供应压力未减，减 产季的到来似乎也已经遥遥无期。而印尼端B50计划不确定性仍存，需进一步政策指引，产地整体来看报价上 行动力不足。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期，且当前美国 已经解散清洁能源部门，或更偏向于化石燃料的使用，政策提振作用存疑。中美贸易和谈进度目前较乐观提 振美豆，支撑豆油相对偏强，但美豆恢复购买后国内豆油供应压力或增加，成本支撑逻辑走完后或转化为供 应压力现实，且美豆出口好转，美国政府对生物燃料政策的力度有减弱可能，等待最终结果；但中加和谈目 前并不像中美和谈乐观，菜系后市供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the palm oil industry [3] Core Viewpoints - If Indonesia's palm oil production increases by 10% this year, the final output will reach a record high of 58 million tons. The production growth rate has gradually slowed since 2018 when Indonesia banned the development of new land for oil palm cultivation, with only 2019 seeing a growth rate of 9.37%. Whether Indonesia can achieve a 10% annual increase remains to be seen [3] - Even though the market expects the production to enter a decline cycle in November, there are still concerns about export demand. There were only rumors of a small amount of palm oil transactions last week ahead of India's Diwali in late October. Argentine sunflower oil is cheaper than that from the Black Sea, and there are also reports of domestic soybean oil exports to India. November may be a turning point for the oil market, depending on whether the US government will announce the compliance obligation volume for 2026. After the decline in oil prices, the market is waiting for demand to pick up and stabilize, and also needs confidence in biodiesel demand from Indonesia and the US. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any unexpected situations in weather and supply in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The report suggests focusing on the fulfillment of the MPOB October report next month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. International Oilseed Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly prices of Australian and Canadian rapeseeds declined. Australian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage. European sunflower seeds had the largest single - week increase, and Ukrainian sunflower seeds also saw an upward adjustment. The increase in international soybean prices was relatively small [5] 2. International Oil Prices - As of October 27, 2025, most weekly oil prices declined. South American soybean oil dropped by over $20 per ton, while European sunflower oil prices rose [9] 3. International Oil FOB Spreads - The spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $0 per ton this week, compared to $15 per ton last week and a historical average of $8 per ton - The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$29 per ton, compared to -$9 per ton last week and a historical average of $148 per ton [21] 4. International Rapeseed Spreads - As of October 24, with the progress of the Australian rapeseed harvest, the spread between Australian and Canadian rapeseeds began to narrow, while the spreads between German, Ukrainian, and Canadian rapeseeds remained at a high level [23] 5. Indian Port Oil Spreads - As of October 24, the spread between Indian port soybean oil and palm oil was $40 per ton, down from $50 per ton last week - The spread between sunflower oil and palm oil was $210 per ton, up from $190 per ton last week - The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was -$6 per ton, down from $0 per ton last week [30] 6. Import and Crushing Profits - Last week, three November - shipment palm oil vessels were traded in the domestic market - Domestic oil mills exported 10,000 - 20,000 tons of soybean oil to India for January shipment [38] 7. Biodiesel - The weekly price of US soybean oil weakened, and the processing and blending profits continued to improve - After the rebound of RME, the weekly RME processing profit improved [132][139] 8. Demand Side Weekly Oil Transactions - Weekly spot oil transactions were sluggish [146] Oil Spot Basis - Different from the weak basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the basis of rapeseed oil was relatively strong [151] Oil Inventory - The report provides monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, including data on initial inventory, imports, total supply, demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [177]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indian and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, and the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia leading to expected decline in exportable volume support the oil price center. The oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - supply and demand, but with a tightening expectation. Before the inventories in sales regions and origin regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from sales region demand, a mid - term stable - buying idea can be applied. In the short term, due to the weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the fermentation of the trade war, it is advisable to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated. Foreign capital seats continuously reduced their net long positions in oils and fats, mainly due to the sharp decline in crude oil depressing the valuation of oils and fats. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved, it did not exceed expectations, with a year - on - year increase of about 15% in the first 15 days of October, indicating average downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Indonesia's proposal of the B50 plan in 2026, possible increase in export taxes, and implementation of further DMO policies triggered a rebound in the oil market, but the lack of a schedule made the market rally unsustainable [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The October MPOB monthly report showed that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil accumulated to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. In Indonesia, if production cannot be maintained at a high level in the long term and global oil demand is stable, and considering the upcoming production - reduction season after the fourth quarter, the expectation of low inventory in Indonesia will continue, supporting palm oil prices in the medium and long term. In September, India imported 1.6 million tons of oils and fats, with a stock increase of 140,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 1.46 million tons, slightly lower than last year but still at a good level [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 315,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, rapeseed oil inventory was 150,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 27,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 120,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly downward trend from a high level. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a moderately low level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the inventory - reduction progress. However, due to the high margin required for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips when the market stabilizes. For now, due to the short - term weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the trade war, it is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil futures contracts, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, showing the trends in production and exports over the years [27] - **Production and Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil**: Charts of the monthly production and export volume of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production and export trends [28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: Charts of the weekly arrival volume, port inventory of soybeans, and monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are provided, showing the supply situation of these raw materials [29][31] - **Palm - Producing Region Weather**: Charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing regions, along with forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate are presented, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Domestic Oils**: A chart shows the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2021 - 2025, reflecting the inventory trend [40] - **Inventory and Profit of Each Oil**: Charts of the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the coastal spot average crushing profit of rapeseed, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided, showing the profit and inventory situation of each oil [42][44][45] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Cost of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed are provided, reflecting the cost of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Trading Volume**: Charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year are presented, showing the trading volume trends [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) are provided, reflecting the profit situation of biodiesel [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the domestic supply has significant pressure with soybean inventories at the highest level in recent years. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, due to the US's tariff threats and no improvement in US soybean imports, prices will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volumes from Indonesia due to increasing biodiesel consumption support the price center of oils. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered when the inventories in consuming and producing areas are not fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand. In the short - term, due to the impact of the trade war on market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see [5][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data in the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil at a historical high, a bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, along with the expected high yield in the new season and strong selling hedging pressure, the short - term cotton price is likely to decline [11][12]. - For eggs, after the holiday, there are multiple bearish factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the low point of the rainy season. In the short - term, a bearish strategy for near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, prices may rebound due to stocking demand, and in the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [14][16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the theoretical supply pressure is large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative. The near - term futures premium is being squeezed out. However, considering the early price decline this year, risks before the Spring Festival have been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions in near - term contracts and consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after the spot price stabilizes, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fluctuated weakly due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline as the soybean arrival at ports was large and the operating rate during the National Day holiday decreased. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. The IBGE's October monthly report showed that the expected total soybean planting area in Brazil this year is 47.7 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year [2]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, expect range - bound fluctuations [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than in August. Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15%. On Wednesday, domestic oils fluctuated. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of cotton decreased. As of October 10, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, and the weaving mill operating rate was 37.6%, both lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. From October 9 - 12, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased compared to the holiday period but decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: Expect short - term price decline [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased [14]. - **Strategy**: Bearish for near - term contracts in the short - term, potential medium - term rebound, and sell on rebounds in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The demand from secondary fattening and slaughter increased, and the market trading activity was high. The breeding side still intended to raise prices [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in near - term contracts, consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after spot price stabilization, and maintain reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - India and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production growth potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply - demand, with a tight expectation. Before the inventories in consumption areas and origin are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in consumption area demand, the medium - term outlook is oscillating and bullish. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and adopt a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach for now [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, the prices of the three major oils declined. Foreign capital seats reduced their net long positions in oils, mainly due to average palm oil export data from Malaysia, indicating either weak downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Mid - month, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly due to short - term discounted soybean oil sales in Argentina, and then rebounded due to the mid - term global palm oil supply - demand balance and a tight - supply expectation at the end of the year. During the National Day holiday, the proposed B50 plan in Indonesia for 2026 and the expected reduction of 500 million tons of palm oil exports led to a sharp rebound in the oil market [11] - **International Oils**: The MPOB monthly report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. Indonesian data lags, but if production cannot remain high in the long term and global oil demand is stable, Indonesian inventory is expected to remain low. After the fourth quarter, the production season will enter a decline phase. Both Indian and Indonesian inventories are lower year - on - year, which will support palm oil prices in the medium and long term [11] - **Domestic Oils**: In September, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was decent, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 325,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient oil supply. Rapeseed oil inventory was 187,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 47,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a high - level and slightly declining trend. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a slightly below - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the de - stocking process. However, due to the high margin required for Canadian rapeseed imports, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bullish unilateral strategy. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and use a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The document presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of FCPOV25.MDE FOB palm oil (Malaysia), palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply situation of different oils [28][29][30] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, along with the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [34][36] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: Present the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil import profit and commercial inventory, soybean oil spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory, rapeseed spot average crushing profit and East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil inventories, reflecting the inventory and profit situation of different oils [42][45][47] 5. Cost Side - **Cost Charts**: Show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, Malaysian palm oil import cost price, CNF import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, reflecting the cost situation of different oils [52][56] 6. Demand Side - **Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, reflecting the demand situation of different oils [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which may affect the demand for oils in the biodiesel field [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - **Strategy**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central price of palm oil is supported by a balanced supply - demand situation in the near term and a tight supply expectation in the fourth quarter. The price of soybean oil fluctuates following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil shows relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - In the international market, the USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak this week, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major vegetable oils mainly fluctuated, and the net long positions of foreign capital seats also fluctuated. Palm oil showed mediocre performance due to weak export data from Malaysia, with a decline in high - frequency production in September in Malaysia and still no significant increase in exports. Soybean oil fluctuated following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - **International Vegetable Oils**: The USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Vegetable Oils**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, the absolute valuation is high, the export of Malaysian palm oil is average with high production, indicating average demand in sales areas or high production in Indonesia, and there is a tight supply expectation in the medium term. Global rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to increase by 5 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. India and China currently make purchases based on rigid demand, and the relatively low inventory in India may attract palm oil buyers at low prices [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to be bullish. The core driving logic is the factors mentioned above that support the central price of vegetable oils. Currently, the valuation is high, and it is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the basis of palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3.3 Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, which helps to understand the supply situation of palm oil [27][28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: It presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil through charts, reflecting the supply situation of soybean and rapeseed [29][30] - **Palm Oil Production Area Weather**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production areas and related climate indices and phenomena through charts, which may affect palm oil production [32][33] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Vegetable Oils**: The report shows the total inventory of domestic three major vegetable oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts, reflecting the overall inventory situation [39] - **Profit and Inventory of Different Vegetable Oils**: It presents the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, as well as the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the inventory of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different vegetable oils [42][44][45][47] 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil through charts, reflecting the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Cost**: It presents the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed through charts, reflecting the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Vegetable Oil Trading Volume**: The report shows the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year through charts, reflecting the trading demand for vegetable oils [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) through charts, which helps to understand the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on vegetable oil demand [58]