油脂产业风险管理日报 2025/11/17 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油脂价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆油：8000-8500 | 11.5% | 2.4% | | 菜油：9300-10300 | 10.4% | 0.1% | | 棕榈油：8400-9000 | 20.2% | 24.1% | source： 南华研究 油脂套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保 | 买卖 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 敞口 | | 工具 | 方向 | （%） | 间 | | 贸易商库存 | 油脂库存偏高，担心油脂价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆油期货来锁定利 | Y260 | 卖出 | 25% | 8400-850 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil inventory is at a high level, the downstream market is relatively dull, and the short - term strategy is to treat it as a weak oscillation, waiting for further news guidance. The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils may continue to converge [4] Summary by Related Content Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean oil in the next month is predicted to be between 8,000 and 8,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.4% [2] - The price range of rapeseed oil in the next month is predicted to be between 9,300 and 10,300 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [2] - The price range of palm oil in the next month is predicted to be between 8,400 and 9,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.1% [2] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high oil inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 8,400 - 8,500 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For refineries with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 8,000 - 8,100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] Core Contradictions - The fundamental situation of palm oil producing areas is weak. In Malaysia, the export speed has slowed down, the production in October reached the highest level in the same period over the years, and the inventory pressure has further increased. In Indonesia, the B50 plan has strong uncertainties, and there is an overall increasing production trend this year. After the Indian Diwali, the global demand for palm oil has weakened, and the origin quotations are mainly in a weak oscillation [3] - The US energy policy lacks clear guidance, and the uncertainty of the final time delay has increased. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will reduce support for the energy policy after China resumes purchasing US soybeans. Sino - US relations are currently improving, diluting the supply gap of oilseeds, but the improved demand and rising prices of US soybeans support the cost of soybean oil [3] - Sino - Canadian relations have not eased. Although Australian rapeseeds will arrive at ports in November, the quantity is not large, and the near - month supply is still supported by tight sentiment [3] Bullish Factors - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 million tons, down from 19.86 million tons in 2025, but the export volume is expected to rise [5] - An Indonesian agricultural official said that due to the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2026 may decline by 11% - 12%. The policy is planned to be launched in the second half of next year [5] - According to SPPOMA data, from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [5] Bearish Factors - Trade agency data shows that India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, down from 833,017 tons in September. The palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year [7] - Malaysian trade and industry officials said that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 3.4% year - on - year, reaching a record 20 million tons [8] Price Quotes - Palm oil futures: Palm oil 01 is at 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.23%; Palm oil 05 is at 8,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.06%; Palm oil 09 is at 8,624 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,103 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.53% [8] - Soybean oil futures: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,256 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.68%; Soybean oil 05 is at 8,028 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,942 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.17%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 50.21 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71% [13] - Rapeseed oil futures: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9,975 yuan/ton with an increase of 135; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9,484 yuan/ton with an increase of 94; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 9,396 yuan/ton with an increase of 84; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 649.8 Canadian dollars/ton with a decline of 1.1 [17]