Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil inventory is at a high level, the downstream market is relatively dull, and the short - term strategy is to treat it as a weak oscillation, waiting for further news guidance. The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils may continue to converge [4] Summary by Related Content Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean oil in the next month is predicted to be between 8,000 and 8,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.4% [2] - The price range of rapeseed oil in the next month is predicted to be between 9,300 and 10,300 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [2] - The price range of palm oil in the next month is predicted to be between 8,400 and 9,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.1% [2] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high oil inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 8,400 - 8,500 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For refineries with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 8,000 - 8,100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] Core Contradictions - The fundamental situation of palm oil producing areas is weak. In Malaysia, the export speed has slowed down, the production in October reached the highest level in the same period over the years, and the inventory pressure has further increased. In Indonesia, the B50 plan has strong uncertainties, and there is an overall increasing production trend this year. After the Indian Diwali, the global demand for palm oil has weakened, and the origin quotations are mainly in a weak oscillation [3] - The US energy policy lacks clear guidance, and the uncertainty of the final time delay has increased. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will reduce support for the energy policy after China resumes purchasing US soybeans. Sino - US relations are currently improving, diluting the supply gap of oilseeds, but the improved demand and rising prices of US soybeans support the cost of soybean oil [3] - Sino - Canadian relations have not eased. Although Australian rapeseeds will arrive at ports in November, the quantity is not large, and the near - month supply is still supported by tight sentiment [3] Bullish Factors - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 million tons, down from 19.86 million tons in 2025, but the export volume is expected to rise [5] - An Indonesian agricultural official said that due to the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2026 may decline by 11% - 12%. The policy is planned to be launched in the second half of next year [5] - According to SPPOMA data, from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [5] Bearish Factors - Trade agency data shows that India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, down from 833,017 tons in September. The palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year [7] - Malaysian trade and industry officials said that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 3.4% year - on - year, reaching a record 20 million tons [8] Price Quotes - Palm oil futures: Palm oil 01 is at 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.23%; Palm oil 05 is at 8,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.06%; Palm oil 09 is at 8,624 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,103 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.53% [8] - Soybean oil futures: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,256 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.68%; Soybean oil 05 is at 8,028 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,942 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.17%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 50.21 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71% [13] - Rapeseed oil futures: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9,975 yuan/ton with an increase of 135; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9,484 yuan/ton with an increase of 94; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 9,396 yuan/ton with an increase of 84; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 649.8 Canadian dollars/ton with a decline of 1.1 [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].

Report Information - Report Name: Oil Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Chen [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Certificate Number: Z0022868 [1] - Transaction Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Current domestic oil market has limited positive factors, mainly driven by uncertainties in origin supply, US biodiesel policy, and international trade relations [3] - Palm oil in Malaysia entered the production - reduction season early due to drought, and inventory pressure is expected to ease; Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth; India's consumption season supports global palm oil consumption [3] - US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing, and the tightened US soybean balance sheet supports soybean prices. Sino - US trade relations may lead to a soybean import gap in Q4 [3] - For rapeseed oil, recent origin weather has little impact, and China - Canada relations are a focus. Importing directly and opening the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for the Canadian gap [3] - Short - term market may fluctuate widely. Strategies should be based on a volatile outlook, not recommended to short. Consider P1 - 5 positive spread opportunities and the possibility of Y01 - P01 spread narrowing [3] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: Monthly price ranges are 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton for soybean oil, 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton for rapeseed oil, and 9200 - 9900 yuan/ton for palm oil. Current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2% respectively, with 3 - year historical percentiles of 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% [2] - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high oil inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% ratio at 8900 - 9000 yuan/ton; refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8200 - 8500 yuan/ton; oil mills worried about high - cost inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - **Leveraging Factors**: Floods in Sabah may reduce Malaysian palm oil production; SPPOMA data shows a decline in production; China's Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may boost downstream demand [6] - **Restraining Factors**: USDA's higher - than - expected US soybean yield eases supply pressure; Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy due to opposition from some state senators; High domestic oil inventory restricts price increase [6][7] Price Data - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9424 yuan/ton (-0.61%), 05 at 9212 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 09 at 8888 yuan/ton (-0.13%); BMD palm oil main contract is at 4427 ringgit/ton (-1.07%); Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9210 yuan/ton (-170) [7][9] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8366 yuan/ton (0%), 05 at 8098 yuan/ton (0%), 09 at 8048 yuan/ton (0%); CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.82 cents/pound (-2.58%); Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8540 yuan/ton (+30) [15][16] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9999 yuan/ton (0), 05 at 9533 yuan/ton (0), 09 at 9456 yuan/ton (0); ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 624.6 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.5); East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10110 yuan/ton (+50) [18]