Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].

Report Information - Report Name: Oil Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Chen [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Certificate Number: Z0022868 [1] - Transaction Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Current domestic oil market has limited positive factors, mainly driven by uncertainties in origin supply, US biodiesel policy, and international trade relations [3] - Palm oil in Malaysia entered the production - reduction season early due to drought, and inventory pressure is expected to ease; Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth; India's consumption season supports global palm oil consumption [3] - US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing, and the tightened US soybean balance sheet supports soybean prices. Sino - US trade relations may lead to a soybean import gap in Q4 [3] - For rapeseed oil, recent origin weather has little impact, and China - Canada relations are a focus. Importing directly and opening the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for the Canadian gap [3] - Short - term market may fluctuate widely. Strategies should be based on a volatile outlook, not recommended to short. Consider P1 - 5 positive spread opportunities and the possibility of Y01 - P01 spread narrowing [3] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: Monthly price ranges are 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton for soybean oil, 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton for rapeseed oil, and 9200 - 9900 yuan/ton for palm oil. Current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2% respectively, with 3 - year historical percentiles of 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% [2] - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high oil inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% ratio at 8900 - 9000 yuan/ton; refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8200 - 8500 yuan/ton; oil mills worried about high - cost inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - **Leveraging Factors**: Floods in Sabah may reduce Malaysian palm oil production; SPPOMA data shows a decline in production; China's Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may boost downstream demand [6] - **Restraining Factors**: USDA's higher - than - expected US soybean yield eases supply pressure; Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy due to opposition from some state senators; High domestic oil inventory restricts price increase [6][7] Price Data - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9424 yuan/ton (-0.61%), 05 at 9212 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 09 at 8888 yuan/ton (-0.13%); BMD palm oil main contract is at 4427 ringgit/ton (-1.07%); Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9210 yuan/ton (-170) [7][9] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8366 yuan/ton (0%), 05 at 8098 yuan/ton (0%), 09 at 8048 yuan/ton (0%); CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.82 cents/pound (-2.58%); Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8540 yuan/ton (+30) [15][16] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9999 yuan/ton (0), 05 at 9533 yuan/ton (0), 09 at 9456 yuan/ton (0); ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 624.6 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.5); East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10110 yuan/ton (+50) [18]