大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8356 | 8 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8576 | | | | 8686 | 8496 | 330 | -10 | 220 | 0 | 140 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9422 | 38 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9392 | | | | 9472 | 9572 | -30 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the prices of oils and fats will experience a high - level correction. After the correction, one can consider buying at low prices. For YP09, a short - term rebound may occur, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. For P15, one can consider going long after the correction. For options, after the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 8576 with a rise of 100. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8756, 8796, and 8676 respectively, and the basis in these areas were 220, 180, and 100 respectively with no change in basis. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 9424 with a rise of 62. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9424, 9474, and 9574 respectively, and the basis changes were - 20, 0, - 20 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 10064 with a rise of 262. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10174, 10114, etc., and the basis changes were 0, 10 etc. [3] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 16 with a rise of 4; for palm oil, it was (66) with a fall of (32); for rapeseed oil, it was 5 with a rise of 13 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 163 with a change of (832), the OI - Y spread was 1477, and the OI - P spread was 645 with a rise of 205. The oil - meal ratio was 2.71 with a fall of (0.03) [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a negative profit of (300) for the September shipment, with a CNF price of 1130. The Rotterdam rapeseed oil for September shipment had a FOB price of 1026 and a negative profit of (622) [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 32nd week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 113.8 million tons (last week: 111.7 million tons, same period last year: 111.1 million tons), the palm oil inventory was 60.0 million tons (last week: 58.2 million tons, same period last year: 58.3 million tons), and the rapeseed oil inventory was 67.2 million tons (last week: 67.8 million tons, same period last year: 42.6 million tons) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for September, increasing the export tax to 10%. The reference price was 4053.43 ringgit per ton (962.12 US dollars), compared to 3864.12 US dollars in August with an export tax of 9% [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: Affected by China's anti - dumping case against Canadian rapeseed, the overall price of oils and fats continued to rise. As of August 8, 2025 (the 32nd week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a 3.02% increase from last week. The origin quotes increased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there was a reported purchase of one ship. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. Short - term palm oil may rise in a volatile manner, and one can consider buying at low prices. The soybean oil price rose by over 1% in a volatile manner. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 217.75 million tons, and the operating rate was 61.21%. As of August 8, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 113.77 million tons, a 1.82% increase from last week. The basis was stable. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased, and soybean oil may experience a slight inventory reduction. One can consider buying at low prices. The rapeseed oil price rose by over 2% in a volatile manner. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6.32 million tons, and the operating rate was 16.84%. As of August 8, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 67.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The spot market had light trading, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. In the short - term, there are many policy disturbances, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [5][6][10] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, it is expected that the prices of oils and fats will experience a high - level correction, and one can consider buying at low prices after the correction [11] - **Arbitrage**: YP09 may rebound in the short - term, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. P15 can be considered for going long after the correction [11] - **Options**: After the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those of the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, month - to - month spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P, OI - Y [15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in a narrow range. YP09 spread narrowing strategy can consider partial profit - taking, and after it widens, continue to consider narrowing at high levels. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2509 is 8012 with a rise of 18, palm oil is 8708 with a fall of 40, and rapeseed oil is 9404 with a fall of 20. The basis of different varieties and regions shows various changes, such as soybean oil's basis in Zhangjiagang is 190 with a - 10 change [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil is 46 with a rise of 12, palm oil is 16 with a fall of 14, and rapeseed oil is 68 with a fall of 13 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, Y - P is - 696 with a rise of 58, OI - Y is 1392, OI - P is 696 with a rise of 20, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.69 with a rise of 0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 165, and the disk profit of European rapeseed oil is - 642 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 104.94 million tons, palm oil is 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 70.6 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16%, and Amspec estimates a 5.29% decrease. Compared with the first 10 days, exports decreased [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from last week. It is expected to fluctuate, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from last week. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from last week. It is expected to be in a large - range shock, and one should pay attention to ship purchases and policy changes [8][10] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [11] - **Arbitrage**: YP09 spread narrowing can consider partial profit - taking, and continue to consider narrowing at high levels after it widens [12] - **Options**: Wait and see [13] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are 8 figures showing the basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oils and fats from 2016 - 2025 [16][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. For palm oil, it is advisable to consider buying on dips; for P9 - 1 and P1 - 5, consider expanding spreads on dips; for options, maintain a wait - and - see stance [11] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 7994 with an increase of 8, palm oil 2509 was 8748 with an increase of 66, and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9424 with a decrease of 15. The basis for different regions and varieties had various changes, with some remaining stable and some having slight fluctuations [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybean oil was 34 with an increase of 14, palm oil was 30 with a decrease of 4, and rapeseed oil was 81 with an increase of 15 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 754 with a decrease of 58, OI - Y was 1430, and OI - P was 676 with a decrease of 81. The oil - meal ratio was 2.67 with a decrease of 0.01 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 8 - month shipping date of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a profit of - 181, and the 8 - month shipping date of FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1013 with a profit of - 642 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (Week 27, 2025)**: The soybean oil inventory was 53.8 tons this week (last week was 53.7 tons, last year was 102.0 tons), palm oil was 51.6 tons, and rapeseed oil was 71.9 tons (last week was 74.7 tons, last year was 39.9 tons) [3] Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% month - on - month to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports were 1549825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025 (Week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 56.3 tons, a 5.21% increase from last week. The origin's quotation was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate, and it was advisable to consider buying on dips [5] - **Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 104.94 tons, a 2.91% increase from last week. The short - term price was expected to maintain fluctuations due to inventory accumulation [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 4, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 71.9 tons, a 2.8 - ton decrease from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was around 1020 US dollars, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The short - term price was expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchase and policy changes [10] Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [11] - **Arbitrage**: Consider expanding the spreads of P9 - 1 and P1 - 5 on dips [11] - **Options**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance [11] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oil varieties, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][17]