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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251017
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 05:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and show a sideways trend in the medium - term. For soybean meal, factors such as Sino - US trade relations, high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market are influencing its price. For palm oil, international oil price pressure, policy uncertainties, and demand substitution are the main factors [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations continue to disrupt the market. The combination of tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, along with the contradiction of high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market, leads to a divergence in soybean futures prices and a weakening of capital support. As a result, soybean meal futures prices fluctuate weakly in the short - term [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market persists. Additionally, policy uncertainties in various countries increase, demand substitution in the oil market emerges, and market instability rises. Affected by macro - sentiment, market funds are cautious, and bulls leave the market. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.3 Other Factors Affecting Related Varieties - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Affected by Sino - US relations, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Impacted by its bio - diesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025年10月17日)-20251017
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 01:34
Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures Bean and Oil Morning Report (October 17, 2025) - Publisher: Baocheng Futures - Date: October 17, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term and show an oscillating trend in the medium - term. This is due to multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, international oil prices, policy uncertainties, and inventory situations [5][7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating and weakening [5]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating and weakening [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations, high near - term domestic inventory, far - term supply gap expectations, and reduced capital support lead to the short - term weakening with oscillations of soybean meal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating and weakening [7]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating and weakening [7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous impact of international oil price pressure on the oil market, increased policy uncertainties in various countries, demand substitution in the oil market, and cautious market funds result in the short - term weakening with oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7]. Other Related Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing country tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].