1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price of edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market due to a lack of independent driving factors. For the trading of spreads and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Price and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 7986 with a decline of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8506, 8546, and 8376 respectively, with corresponding basis of 560, 520, and 390. The closing price of palm oil 2605 is 8778 with an increase of 54. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8748, 8768, and 8908 respectively, with corresponding basis of - 30, - 10, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2605 is 9017 with an increase of 37. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi are 9817 and 10017 respectively, with corresponding basis of 800 and 1000 [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 144 with an increase of 14, that of palm oil is 100 with a decline of 6, and that of rapeseed oil is 31 with an increase of 13 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 792 with a decline of 62, the OI - Y spread is 1031, and the OI - P spread is 239 with a decline of 17. The oil - meal ratio is 2.89 with an increase of 0.03 [2] - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 2 - month shipment is 1062.5, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 2 - month shipment is 1050, with a negative profit of - 1369 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the second week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 million tons, that of palm oil is 73.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil is 25.1 million tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In December 2026, India's palm oil imports were 507,204 tons, lower than November's 632,341 tons; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than November's 142,953 tons; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than November's 370,661 tons. Total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than November's 1.18 million tons [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from the previous week. The origin price was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of two near - month purchases. After - market news that Indonesia may not implement B50 this year led to a decline in the Malaysian market. The short - term market lacks a clear driving force, and the high - inventory situation will continue, with a slow de - stocking speed. The short - term price will fluctuate [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil price declined slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0251 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable. The weekly trading volume increased. There are rumors of customs clearance delays. With a decrease in soybean arrivals, the soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil price increased slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the inventory of rapeseed was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 251,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was stable at around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, rumors of state reserves release in the first quarter and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations restrict the upward space of near - month contracts, but the firm offer from COFCO and the time required for rapeseed purchases to arrive provide support for the price [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of oils and fats lacks a clear driving force and is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider lightly going long at low levels after a significant pull - back. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA estimates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of October increased by 6.86% month - on - month. ITS data shows that exports in the same period increased by 16% month - on - month [4]. - SEA data indicates that as of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year reached 1.398 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In September, India's port inventory continued to accumulate to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining flat, soybean oil inventory increasing significantly due to high imports, and sunflower oil inventory decreasing [4]. - This week, oils and fats lacked a clear driving force and remained volatile. Rapeseed oil declined significantly due to expectations of improved China - Canada relations and short - selling. Fundamentally, Malaysian palm oil production in September may have declined slightly, exports may have increased slightly, and inventory may have slightly accumulated. The stable spot price in the producing areas supports the palm oil price, but the lack of positive drivers, poor cost - effectiveness, and weak demand hinder its rise. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of soybean oil is not prominent. Domestic soybean oil inventory is slightly increasing, and it may continue to decline slightly later, but the inventory will not be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, but overall, the inventory continues to decline marginally, supporting the rapeseed oil price [4]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil in October**: SPPOMA estimates a 6.86% month - on - month increase in production in the first 15 days of October. With more rainfall expected in southern Peninsular Malaysia in the next two weeks, production may slightly decrease in October but still be slightly higher than the five - year average. ITS data shows a 16% month - on - month increase in exports in the first 15 days of October. Exports in October are expected to increase month - on - month but be lower than the five - year average. Inventory in October is expected to reach between 2.35 and 2.45 million tons. The recent spot price of Malaysian CPO has remained stable at around 4,450 ringgit, and the decline space of CPO may be limited in the later period [8]. - **India's Situation in September**: India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year as of September reached 1.398 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Palm oil imports decreased by 14%, with cumulative imports of only 6.91 million tons. Soybean oil imports reached a record 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. Sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. It is expected that imports in September will decline slightly. In terms of inventory, India's port inventory in September continued to accumulate to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining flat, soybean oil inventory increasing significantly due to high imports, and sunflower oil inventory decreasing. Currently, the inventories of the three major oils are all higher than the five - year average. India's apparent consumption this year is at a moderately high level but has declined compared to the same period last year. In terms of import profit, CPO and sunflower oil occasionally have import profits, but the procurement progress has slowed down. There are also rumors that India has imported Chinese soybean oil for forward months [14]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump stated on social media that China deliberately does not buy US soybeans, causing difficulties for US soybean farmers, which is an economic hostile act. In response, the US is considering terminating business relations with China in the edible oil and other trade fields. From January to August this year, China's cumulative exports of UCO reached 1.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. Among them, exports to the US totaled about 300,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. From January to July this year, the US's cumulative imports of UCO reached 1.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%, and the quantity imported from China decreased by 43% year - on - year, with a more diversified import source [20]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of October 10, 2025 (week 41), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.83%. Recently, palm oil inventory has been decreasing continuously and is at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same period of history. From January to August, domestic edible palm oil imports totaled only 1.59 million tons, lower than the same period last year and still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The producer's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 160. According to incomplete statistics, domestic commercial purchases in October and November are about 200,000 tons +, but there are still few forward - month shipments. Attention should be paid to domestic purchases and arrivals in the later period [23]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.31%. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, and the operating rate was 59.59%. The spot market is sluggish, and downstream buyers still replenish inventory on - demand, with slow pick - up. Currently, China has not purchased US soybeans and mainly purchases South American soybeans. It is expected that there will be no shortage of domestic soybeans in the short term. The peak period of soybean arrivals in China has passed. As soybean arrivals and crushing gradually decrease later, domestic soybean oil inventory may decline, and the inflection point of domestic soybean oil inventory may occur at the end of October, followed by a gradual decline, but the inventory will not be tight [26]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, and the operating rate was 3.73%, a decrease from the previous week. As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 571,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. Although it is still at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory is continuously declining marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil has increased to around $1,100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are frequent rumors in the market that China has imported rapeseed oil from Dubai and Russia. The market still has a sentiment of holding back sales and maintaining prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable. It is expected that the inventory decline trend in coastal areas will continue. The market expects that China - Canada relations may improve, and rapeseed oil prices have declined. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, but overall, rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline marginally, supporting the rapeseed oil price. Attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Logic**: Malaysian palm oil production in September may have declined slightly, exports may have increased slightly, and inventory may have slightly accumulated. The stable spot price in the producing areas supports the palm oil price, but the lack of positive drivers, poor cost - effectiveness, and weak demand hinder its rise, so it will maintain a volatile state. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of soybean oil is not prominent. Domestic soybean oil inventory is slightly increasing, and it may continue to decline slightly later, but the inventory will not be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, but overall, rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline marginally, supporting the rapeseed oil price [31]. - **Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, due to the lack of driving force, oils and fats may pull back in the short term and are expected to be in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see for now and consider lightly going long at low levels after a significant pull - back. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data tracking on Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory; international soybean oil market data; Indian oil supply and demand; domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil supply and demand; domestic oil spot basis; and domestic oil commercial inventory, presented in graphical form [37][44][46].