油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆粕：ANEC：2026 年 1 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 323 万吨，比去年同期 的 112 万吨增长 188%，创下历史同期最高纪录。预计 2026 年巴西大豆出口量将 达到创纪录的 1.12 亿吨。2025 年全年巴西大豆出口量为 1.0873 亿吨，较 2024 年的 9729 万吨增长 11.8%，也超过了 2023 年的前历史峰值 1.013 亿吨。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2660 - 2720. It is influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, there is no short - term pressure on oil - mill inventory. The short - term outlook is for range - bound movement. China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the lack of a tariff on rapeseed limits the upside potential [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2660 - 2720 range - bound state. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, low oil - mill operation, and low inventory. Spot demand is in a short - term peak season, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply outlook. The demand side maintains a good outlook. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the impact of Ukrainian production cuts and Russian production increases offsetting each other, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2600, with a basis of - 75, indicating a discount to the futures. The futures price is in a range - bound state, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly, with the high - level discount narrowing [9][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year from 34,000 tons last year [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to experience short - term fluctuations within the 2660 - 2720 range, affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and soybean meal trends [9].