交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 近期要闻： 1.国内水产养殖进入旺季，国产油菜籽上市，现货市场供应偏紧预期改 善，需求端维持良好预期。 2.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查初步裁定成立，并开始征收进口 保证金75.8%，一旦最终裁定成立，保证金将作为加征关税不予退还，但是 未来裁定结果尚有变数，等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量小幅减少，主要受欧盟油菜籽产量减少和加拿大 油菜籽产量低于预期影响。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响，全球地缘冲突未来仍有上升可能 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2660至2720区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕窄幅震荡，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-75，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12%。偏多 4.盘 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline in the afternoon but rebounded around 2 PM, with the overall market showing mixed performance, where the Shanghai Composite Index outperformed the Shenzhen market [1] - The market sentiment is characterized by both optimism and caution, with micro-cap stocks showing signs of a bubble while large-cap stocks appear undervalued [1][12] - Despite the lack of systemic risks due to policy and liquidity support, there is a need to digest valuation pressures in the short term, and the current pullback can be seen as a buying opportunity [1][14] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.62% to 2367.68 points [3] - The trading volume showed a slight increase, with a total turnover of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [3] - A total of 3559 stocks declined, with 9 hitting the daily limit down, while 1713 stocks rose, with 55 hitting the daily limit up [3] Sector Performance - The steel sector rose by over 2%, with companies like Baogang Group and Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit up [5][6] - The oil and petrochemical sector also saw gains of nearly 2%, while traditional cyclical sectors benefited from industry discipline and capacity optimization expectations [8][9] - Conversely, the electric equipment sector fell by over 2%, with CATL dropping more than 5% [7][8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a "defensive + buying on dips" strategy, avoiding high-flying stocks without earnings support and focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty [14][16] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the coming weeks, with investors waiting for mid-year performance reports and policy details to be released [1][15] - There is a notable shift in funds from technology growth sectors to dividend-paying sectors, indicating a defensive investment approach [9][12] Future Outlook - The market is likely to continue its slow upward trend, with adjustments expected to be limited [9][14] - The core contradiction in the market is highlighted by the significant inflow of foreign capital, while domestic speculative sentiment appears to be retreating [12] - The focus for the second half of the year will revolve around the effects of "anti-involution" policies and global liquidity changes, with potential opportunities in growth stocks if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates [16]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3454.79 points, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 543.13 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10412.63 points, down 0.61%, with a trading volume of 833.85 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2123.72 points, down 1.13%, with a trading volume of 393.79 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was 1376.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 89.06 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included steel, coal, construction materials, agriculture, banking, and non-ferrous metals [3] - Active concepts included marine economy, aquaculture, low-carbon metallurgy, organic silicon, and BC batteries [3] - Weak sectors included electronics, communications, defense, computer, education, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology [3] Individual Stock Performance - 1857 stocks rose while 3106 stocks fell, with 62 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 9 stocks hitting the limit down [3] - Chengbang Co. achieved a five-day limit up streak, the highest among stocks [5] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 33.19 billion yuan [6] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 18.53 billion yuan, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index had a net outflow of 2.375 billion yuan [7] - Eight sectors experienced net inflows, with the power equipment sector seeing the highest inflow of 1.595 billion yuan [7] Notable Stocks with Fund Inflows - Yuyin Co. had the highest net inflow of 664 million yuan, followed by Rongfa Nuclear Power and Hunan Tianyan with inflows of 533 million yuan and 456 million yuan respectively [9][11] Notable Stocks with Fund Outflows - Jihua Group experienced the highest net outflow of 644 million yuan, followed by OFILM and Dongfang Fortune with outflows of 578 million yuan and 525 million yuan respectively [13][14] Institutional Trading - Institutions had a net sell of approximately 641 million yuan, with Anglikang being the most bought stock at about 101 million yuan [17][18]

Core Insights - Domestic rapeseed meal spot prices remained stable, with Dongguan rapeseed meal quoted at 2570 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market saw the main rapeseed meal contract closing at 2679.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.07% [2] Price Overview - The rapeseed meal prices across various regions on June 20 are as follows: - Tianjin: 2630 yuan/ton - Fujian/Xiamen: 2590 yuan/ton - Liaoning/Yingkou: 2810 yuan/ton - Hubei/Jingzhou: 2570 yuan/ton - Jiangsu/Nantong: 2530 yuan/ton [2] Market Trends - Canadian canola seed exports decreased by 17.05% to 131,400 tons as of June 15 [3] - The number of rapeseed meal futures warehouse receipts recorded on June 20 was 25,824, a decrease of 30 from the previous trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 431 receipts over the past week, representing a 1.64% decline [3] Analysis - With the concentration of imported soybeans arriving at ports, oil mills have increased their operating rates, leading to a more relaxed supply that pressures meal prices [4] - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to rise due to the peak season for aquaculture, although improved trade relations between China and Canada may increase supply and negatively impact rapeseed meal prices [4] - The rapeseed meal market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with a slight upward trend, suggesting a short-term trading approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuehai Feed, is facing significant challenges in its financial performance due to a prolonged downturn in the aquaculture market, leading to a substantial decline in revenue and profits, despite efforts to expand its market presence through initiatives like the "Victory Summer Action" [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Yuehai Feed's revenue peaked at 7.092 billion yuan in 2022 but has since shown signs of fatigue, with revenue growth slowing from 15.08% to 5.45%, and net profit declining by 38.44% year-on-year [2]. - In 2023 and 2024, the company reported revenues of 6.872 billion yuan and 5.912 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 3.10% and 13.98% [3]. - For 2024, Yuehai Feed recorded its first annual loss in nearly a decade, with a net profit loss of 85.39 million yuan, a dramatic drop of 307.55% compared to a profit of 41.14 million yuan in the previous year [3]. Market Conditions - The aquaculture market has been adversely affected by extreme weather and diseases, leading to a persistent downturn in demand for aquaculture products [3][4]. - The company's receivables reached 1.148 billion yuan and inventory stood at 688.8 million yuan by the end of 2024, accounting for 56.6% of its current assets, complicating cash flow [4]. Business Segments - Yuehai Feed's two main business segments, aquaculture feed and animal health products, have both been declining, with aquaculture feed accounting for over 95% of total revenue [5]. - In 2024, the aquaculture feed segment generated 5.673 billion yuan, down 13.93% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive year of revenue decline [6]. - The animal health products segment saw even steeper declines, with revenue falling by 41.2% to 67.86 million yuan in 2024 [6]. Regional Performance - The company's primary revenue sources, the South China and East China regions, also experienced declines, with South China generating 4.245 billion yuan (down 10.47%) and East China 1.091 billion yuan (down 24.12%) in 2024 [6]. Investment Projects - The company's performance has been further impacted by delays in the execution of IPO fundraising projects, with two key projects experiencing significant delays and underperformance [8][9]. - The projects, aimed at increasing production capacity and enhancing competitiveness, have seen their completion dates pushed back to August 2025, with one project only 67.39% complete by the end of 2024 [8][9]. - The two completed projects reported disappointing results in 2024, with one project incurring a loss of 2.042 million yuan and the other generating a modest profit of 734,300 yuan [11].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Yuehai Feed Group Co., Ltd. (Yuehai Feed) has launched the "Yuehai Wealth Creation Campaign: Winning Summer Action" to capitalize on the peak season for aquaculture, aiming for dual goals of customer success in farming and a significant increase in group sales [2][3]. Group 1: Business Performance - From January to April this year, Yuehai Feed collected nearly 300 million yuan in advance payments, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 50% [2]. - Product sales have shown significant growth, with high-end fish feed up over 15%, small shrimp feed up over 56%, yellow catfish feed up over 66%, live fish feed up nearly 50%, and puffed tilapia feed up over 36% [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The "Winning Summer Action" will benchmark against industry leaders and focus on six strategic initiatives to enhance business operations [3]. - The company plans to strengthen channel cooperation and expand coverage of feed, seedling, and animal health products, while enhancing customer loyalty through continuous service [3]. Group 3: Market Expansion - Yuehai Feed will focus on high-end feed for shrimp, grouper, yellow catfish, and bass, as well as freshwater fish varieties like puffed tilapia and grass carp, targeting weak areas for market penetration [3][4]. - The company aims to achieve the highest market share in key regions and product categories [3]. Group 4: Service and Brand Development - To ensure service quality, Yuehai Feed will increase service frequency at farms and conduct skill competitions to strengthen the marketing team [3]. - Brand enhancement will be pursued through case studies, promotion of farming models, and community initiatives [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - On March 12, 2025, the market experienced fluctuations, with the computing power concept gaining strength. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.58%. The total market turnover was 1,683.51 billion yuan, an increase of 201.88 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2][14]. Market Performance - The market saw 2,666 stocks rise and 2,587 stocks fall. The performance of various indices ranked as follows: Growth > Stability > Cyclical > 0 > Financial > Consumer; Small-cap Value > Small-cap Growth > Mid-cap Value > Large-cap Growth > Large-cap Value > Mid-cap Growth. The CSI All Share Index outperformed the fund-heavy positions [2][19]. Industry Performance - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, the top performers were Media (1.84%), Comprehensive Finance (1.33%), and Communication (1.11%). The laggards included Home Appliances (-0.84%), Coal (-0.80%), and Food & Beverage (-0.78%). Most concept sectors declined, with significant increases in Broadcasting, Digital Watermarking, and Blind Box Economy, while PLC, Aquaculture, and Engineering Machinery saw declines [2][19][23]. Fund Flow Analysis - On March 12, 2025, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 11.935 billion yuan. Specifically, large orders saw a net outflow of 12.615 billion yuan, while small orders continued to see a net inflow of 18.238 billion yuan [3][24]. ETF Fund Flow - On March 12, 2025, the trading volume of major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF decreased compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes were 1.493 billion yuan, 2.457 billion yuan, and others, with changes of -184 million yuan and -1.571 billion yuan respectively [3][30]. Global Market Performance - On March 12, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed mixed, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.77% and the Nikkei 225 up 0.07%. European indices also saw declines, with the DAX down 1.29% and the FTSE 100 down 1.21%. The US markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.14% [4][5][34].