午后，餐厅，资深的主厨正在设计一场定制家宴的菜单。 他并未着急决断，而是先仔细研究了宾客的饮食习惯——这次的宾客偏好清淡本味，喜爱新鲜的食材。 放下手中的宾客资料，宴席的架构开始浮现。 清蒸海鱼是李师傅的拿手菜，他对火候与时间的掌控已臻化境； 菊花豆腐汤全靠陈师傅的经验，一手出神入化的刀工，豆腐在水中绽放如丝缕菊瓣； 杏仁酪温润妥帖，心思缜密的周师姐能把握得恰到好处…… 主厨不需要自己去种菜或捕鱼，亦不需要亲手制作每道美食。 涨跌刺激如烈酒的权益产品、温和滋补如老火汤的固收产品、散发着土地清香的资源品、清冽可饮用的 活水现金…… 这有点像FOF基金经理遴选投资标的的动作。 首先明确投资者的风险偏好，确定产品的投资目标。 其次根据投资目标，精心构建组合的框架和策略。 再根据资产配置方案，从浩如烟海的基金中，选择最合适的投资品种。 而这个组合并不是静态不变的，需要根据市场的变化，动态调整。 FOF基金经理在投资时，也会面对琳琅满目的"投资菜系"—— 资产轮动，就像春季尝鲜、秋冬进补。聪明的主厨不会死守一个菜谱，而是根据市场季节的变化，适度 增配当下更具潜力的资产，减配可能面临风险的资产，旨在捕捉不同阶段的收益机会 ...

Core Insights - The performance of Guotai Multi-Asset Allocation Department has been outstanding, with Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding (013279) achieving a 66.14% return, ranking first in its category for the past one, two, and three years [1][20][21] - Guotai Ruiyue, a bond-type FOF fund, also performed well, ranking first in its category for 2025 and second over the past two years [1][20][21] Performance Summary - Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding (013279) has the following performance rankings: - 1st out of 78 for the past year - 1st out of 71 for the past two years - 1st out of 49 for the past three years [21] - Guotai Ruiyue (016644) has the following performance rankings: - 1st out of 17 for the past year - 2nd out of 13 for the past two years [21] - Guotai Stable Income (014067) has the following performance rankings: - 2nd out of 70 for the past year - 2nd out of 63 for the past two years - 2nd out of 39 for the past three years [21] Investment Philosophy - Investment Director Zeng Hui emphasizes that asset allocation should focus on the most aggressive opportunities rather than a simple average or static allocation, aiming to enhance returns while implementing timing strategies and strict risk control to manage drawdowns [2][22] - The traditional static allocation approach is deemed inadequate for addressing systemic risks, especially with the rise of quantitative methods and rapid ETF development, leading to a transformation in FOF investment strategies [2][22] Quantitative Rotation Model - Zeng Hui's Tai Chi Quantitative Rotation Model focuses on identifying extremes of overbought and oversold conditions, integrating macro risk control timing, industry rotation, and a robust quantitative risk management framework [3][23] - The model aims to capture market cycles by determining buy and sell points based on market fluctuations, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators to trigger alerts for selling during overbought conditions and buying during oversold conditions [3][23] Risk Control and Execution - Zeng Hui prioritizes drawdown control as a fundamental principle, stating that while seeking returns is an art, controlling drawdowns is a science that requires systematic execution [5][24] - A quantitative system is introduced to counteract human biases and ensure effective implementation of risk management strategies [5][24] Future of FOF Management - The future of FOF management is expected to evolve into a competitive environment where managers must excel in multiple asset classes, requiring deep knowledge of stocks, bonds, commodities, and international market rules [6][26] - Zeng Hui's extensive experience and dual approach of subjective and quantitative investment strategies position him well to navigate this evolving landscape [6][26] New Product Launch - Starting January 19, Guotai Multi-Asset Stable Navigation Six-Month Holding Period FOF (025798) will be launched, covering equity assets, Hong Kong Stock Connect targets, and QDII funds, with expectations for strong performance based on past successes [7][26]

Group 1 - The global silver market has gained attention, with London spot silver prices reaching $60 per ounce for the first time on December 9, marking a 120% increase year-to-date as of December 11 [1] - A notable holding structure in the market is highlighted by a silver LOF report, which shows that the largest holder is a FOF fund, specifically the Guotai Ruiyue 3-Month Holding (FOF) [1] - The fund manager, Zeng Hui, utilized his Tai Ji quantitative model to make forward-looking judgments, switching from gold to silver based on macroeconomic signals and historical analysis of silver's performance [1][2] Group 2 - Zeng Hui's investment strategy is based on a unique "four capabilities" investment logic, focusing on dynamic timing and rotation rather than static allocation, covering A-shares, bonds, commodities, and overseas assets [2] - His strategy has shown effectiveness, with various FOF products under his management achieving annualized Sharpe ratios that exceed the industry average, balancing risk and return [2] - The Guotai Multi-Asset Stable Selection FOF, which Zeng Hui is set to manage, has begun fundraising, maintaining a conservative investment approach with over 80% in bond assets and a diversified allocation strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance and innovative investment strategies of Zeng Hui, a fund manager at Guotai Fund, emphasizing his ability to adapt to the evolving public fund industry and achieve superior returns through a multi-asset approach [7][30][42]. Performance Summary - Guotai Youxuan Linghang One-Year Holding FOF achieved a return of 52.59% over the past year, ranking first among its peers [2][25]. - Guotai Ruiyue Three-Month Holding FOF, with a higher fixed income allocation, recorded a return of 4.98%, placing it second in its category [4][28]. - All managed products have shown outstanding historical performance, with annualized Sharpe ratios exceeding the industry average [5][36]. Investment Philosophy - Zeng Hui believes the public fund industry has entered a new phase, moving from static allocation to dynamic timing and rotation strategies [8][31]. - The role of FOF fund managers has evolved from mere allocators to direct competitors in the market [10][32]. - Zeng emphasizes the need for "all-around" talent development in the industry, moving away from traditional team structures [9][34]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the FOF space is becoming increasingly fierce, requiring managers to excel in both horizontal dynamic allocation and vertical asset enhancement [13][34]. - Zeng's investment framework is shaped by the competitive environment, pushing him to become a more versatile fund manager [12][34]. Unique Investment Model - Zeng has developed the "Taiji Quantitative Rotation Model," which focuses on extreme market conditions and incorporates macro risk control, industry rotation, and robust risk management [39][40]. - This model aims to adapt to the constantly changing market dynamics, allowing for continuous accumulation and iteration of various algorithmic models [40][41]. Market Context - The current market environment, characterized by rapid restructuring and asset revaluation, highlights the effectiveness of Zeng's investment approach [42]. - The interplay between stock and bond markets is increasingly significant, with the "seesaw" effect becoming more pronounced [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the evolving landscape of multi-asset investment strategies, highlighting the importance of dynamic asset allocation and risk management in achieving superior returns in the current market environment [4][21][40]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The interviewee, Zeng Hui, advocates for a shift from static to dynamic asset allocation, focusing on timing and risk control to enhance returns and manage drawdowns effectively [8][10][11]. - Zeng Hui's investment framework is based on a "Tai Chi" philosophy, emphasizing the importance of identifying extreme market conditions (overbought and oversold) rather than adhering strictly to mean reversion [12][55]. - The approach includes enhancing four underlying asset classes, particularly commodities and international assets, which are seen as essential for public FOF (Fund of Funds) investments [13][80]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Zeng Hui manages several funds with notable performance, including the Guotai Youxuan Lihang fund, which achieved a return of 52.59% over the past year, ranking first in its category [4][5]. - The Guotai Ruiyue fund, focusing on bonds, reported a return of 4.98%, ranking second in its category, showcasing the effectiveness of Zeng Hui's investment strategies [4][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article discusses the significant changes in the FOF industry, driven by the rise of quantitative strategies and ETFs, which are reshaping traditional investment models [21][22][35]. - Zeng Hui predicts that the future of public FOF will involve a more integrated approach, reducing the layers of management and focusing on dynamic asset allocation to improve investment efficiency [21][35]. - The article highlights the anticipated performance of various asset classes in the coming year, with commodities expected to outperform equities and bonds, particularly gold and silver [99][100][106]. Group 4: Risk Management - Zeng Hui emphasizes the critical role of macro risk management, identifying it as the most significant risk factor in investment, accounting for 40% of the overall risk framework [41][46]. - The investment strategy incorporates a quantitative system to enforce discipline and mitigate human biases, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols [92][97]. - The article outlines the necessity of a robust macroeconomic model that integrates various factors, including fundamental, policy, liquidity, and market sentiment, to guide investment decisions [42][43][46].