Core Insights - The article draws a parallel between a chef designing a customized banquet menu and a FOF (Fund of Funds) manager selecting investment targets, emphasizing the importance of understanding preferences and adapting strategies accordingly [3][27]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The FOF manager must first clarify the investor's risk appetite and define the investment objectives [4][28]. - Following this, a framework and strategy for constructing the investment portfolio are meticulously developed [5][29]. - The selection of suitable investment products is based on a comprehensive asset allocation plan [6][30]. Group 2: Dynamic Management - The investment portfolio is not static; it requires dynamic adjustments based on market changes [7][31]. - FOF managers face a variety of investment options, akin to different culinary styles, and must adapt their asset allocation to capture opportunities in different market phases [8][31]. - The approach involves increasing exposure to promising assets during favorable market conditions and reducing exposure to risky assets [31][32]. Group 3: Risk Management - Effective risk control in investment management is more complex than simply adjusting flavors in cooking [10][33]. - The FOF management philosophy includes a structured operational process that emphasizes dynamic core and satellite strategies, contrasting with traditional static allocation methods [12][34]. - The investment philosophy is based on a timing rotation model, which is responsive to market conditions, enhancing the ability to manage risks and returns [37][38]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The investment methodology of the FOF manager elevates investment from a basic approach to a sophisticated, replicable, and sustainable science [14][39]. - The model incorporates a comprehensive framework that connects various assets over a medium to long-term horizon while allowing for continuous refinement of algorithms [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "5 trillion yuan fixed deposits maturing soon" is gaining traction, with a significant amount of funds expected to be reallocated, particularly towards multi-asset allocation strategies like Funds of Funds (FOF) [1][17]. Group 1: Maturing Deposits and Market Dynamics - The estimated scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is approximately 50 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a notable concentration of maturity pressure in the first half of 2026 [1][17]. - The flow of this massive amount of maturing funds is a focal point for the market, as depositors typically have a low risk appetite and prefer stability over exposure to stock market volatility [1][17]. Group 2: Multi-Asset Allocation and FOF - FOFs are expected to attract more funds due to their core value of multi-asset allocation, which leverages the low correlation among different asset classes to mitigate non-systematic risks [1][17]. - Historical performance indicates that the multi-asset risk parity index has a maximum drawdown of only -3.79%, significantly lower than other asset classes, showcasing its strong risk resistance [2][20]. Group 3: Performance Metrics of Multi-Asset Strategies - The multi-asset risk parity index has achieved an annualized return of 4.73% with a Calmar ratio of 1.25, indicating a higher annualized return for each unit of maximum drawdown risk compared to single-asset indices [3][19]. - In 2025, the top-performing FOF, Guotai Youxuan Lihang, achieved an annual return of 66.14%, outperforming its peers significantly [4][21]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Manager Insights - The investment strategy for FOFs is evolving towards dynamic timing and rotation, moving away from static asset allocation to better manage systemic risks [6][22]. - The fund manager, Zeng Hui, emphasizes the importance of strict drawdown control and a comprehensive skill set for FOF managers, ensuring a robust investment process [6][24][25]. Group 5: New Product Launch - A new product, Guotai Multi-Asset Steady Navigation 6-Month Holding Period FOF, is being launched, targeting investors looking for diversified risk and stable returns, with equity investments comprising 5%-40% of the fund's assets [10][26].

Core Insights - The performance of Guotai Multi-Asset Allocation Department has been outstanding, with Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding (013279) achieving a 66.14% return, ranking first in its category for the past one, two, and three years [1][20][21] - Guotai Ruiyue, a bond-type FOF fund, also performed well, ranking first in its category for 2025 and second over the past two years [1][20][21] Performance Summary - Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding (013279) has the following performance rankings: - 1st out of 78 for the past year - 1st out of 71 for the past two years - 1st out of 49 for the past three years [21] - Guotai Ruiyue (016644) has the following performance rankings: - 1st out of 17 for the past year - 2nd out of 13 for the past two years [21] - Guotai Stable Income (014067) has the following performance rankings: - 2nd out of 70 for the past year - 2nd out of 63 for the past two years - 2nd out of 39 for the past three years [21] Investment Philosophy - Investment Director Zeng Hui emphasizes that asset allocation should focus on the most aggressive opportunities rather than a simple average or static allocation, aiming to enhance returns while implementing timing strategies and strict risk control to manage drawdowns [2][22] - The traditional static allocation approach is deemed inadequate for addressing systemic risks, especially with the rise of quantitative methods and rapid ETF development, leading to a transformation in FOF investment strategies [2][22] Quantitative Rotation Model - Zeng Hui's Tai Chi Quantitative Rotation Model focuses on identifying extremes of overbought and oversold conditions, integrating macro risk control timing, industry rotation, and a robust quantitative risk management framework [3][23] - The model aims to capture market cycles by determining buy and sell points based on market fluctuations, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators to trigger alerts for selling during overbought conditions and buying during oversold conditions [3][23] Risk Control and Execution - Zeng Hui prioritizes drawdown control as a fundamental principle, stating that while seeking returns is an art, controlling drawdowns is a science that requires systematic execution [5][24] - A quantitative system is introduced to counteract human biases and ensure effective implementation of risk management strategies [5][24] Future of FOF Management - The future of FOF management is expected to evolve into a competitive environment where managers must excel in multiple asset classes, requiring deep knowledge of stocks, bonds, commodities, and international market rules [6][26] - Zeng Hui's extensive experience and dual approach of subjective and quantitative investment strategies position him well to navigate this evolving landscape [6][26] New Product Launch - Starting January 19, Guotai Multi-Asset Stable Navigation Six-Month Holding Period FOF (025798) will be launched, covering equity assets, Hong Kong Stock Connect targets, and QDII funds, with expectations for strong performance based on past successes [7][26]