午后，餐厅，资深的主厨正在设计一场定制家宴的菜单。 他并未着急决断，而是先仔细研究了宾客的饮食习惯——这次的宾客偏好清淡本味，喜爱新鲜的食材。 放下手中的宾客资料，宴席的架构开始浮现。 清蒸海鱼是李师傅的拿手菜，他对火候与时间的掌控已臻化境； 菊花豆腐汤全靠陈师傅的经验，一手出神入化的刀工，豆腐在水中绽放如丝缕菊瓣； 杏仁酪温润妥帖，心思缜密的周师姐能把握得恰到好处…… 主厨不需要自己去种菜或捕鱼，亦不需要亲手制作每道美食。 涨跌刺激如烈酒的权益产品、温和滋补如老火汤的固收产品、散发着土地清香的资源品、清冽可饮用的 活水现金…… 这有点像FOF基金经理遴选投资标的的动作。 首先明确投资者的风险偏好，确定产品的投资目标。 其次根据投资目标，精心构建组合的框架和策略。 再根据资产配置方案，从浩如烟海的基金中，选择最合适的投资品种。 而这个组合并不是静态不变的，需要根据市场的变化，动态调整。 FOF基金经理在投资时，也会面对琳琅满目的"投资菜系"—— 资产轮动，就像春季尝鲜、秋冬进补。聪明的主厨不会死守一个菜谱，而是根据市场季节的变化，适度 增配当下更具潜力的资产，减配可能面临风险的资产，旨在捕捉不同阶段的收益机会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "5 trillion yuan fixed deposits maturing soon" is gaining traction, with a significant amount of funds expected to be reallocated, particularly towards multi-asset allocation strategies like Funds of Funds (FOF) [1][17]. Group 1: Maturing Deposits and Market Dynamics - The estimated scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is approximately 50 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a notable concentration of maturity pressure in the first half of 2026 [1][17]. - The flow of this massive amount of maturing funds is a focal point for the market, as depositors typically have a low risk appetite and prefer stability over exposure to stock market volatility [1][17]. Group 2: Multi-Asset Allocation and FOF - FOFs are expected to attract more funds due to their core value of multi-asset allocation, which leverages the low correlation among different asset classes to mitigate non-systematic risks [1][17]. - Historical performance indicates that the multi-asset risk parity index has a maximum drawdown of only -3.79%, significantly lower than other asset classes, showcasing its strong risk resistance [2][20]. Group 3: Performance Metrics of Multi-Asset Strategies - The multi-asset risk parity index has achieved an annualized return of 4.73% with a Calmar ratio of 1.25, indicating a higher annualized return for each unit of maximum drawdown risk compared to single-asset indices [3][19]. - In 2025, the top-performing FOF, Guotai Youxuan Lihang, achieved an annual return of 66.14%, outperforming its peers significantly [4][21]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Manager Insights - The investment strategy for FOFs is evolving towards dynamic timing and rotation, moving away from static asset allocation to better manage systemic risks [6][22]. - The fund manager, Zeng Hui, emphasizes the importance of strict drawdown control and a comprehensive skill set for FOF managers, ensuring a robust investment process [6][24][25]. Group 5: New Product Launch - A new product, Guotai Multi-Asset Steady Navigation 6-Month Holding Period FOF, is being launched, targeting investors looking for diversified risk and stable returns, with equity investments comprising 5%-40% of the fund's assets [10][26].

Core Insights - The performance of Guotai Multi-Asset Allocation Department has been outstanding, with Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding (013279) achieving a 66.14% return, ranking first in its category for the past one, two, and three years [1][20][21] - Guotai Ruiyue, a bond-type FOF fund, also performed well, ranking first in its category for 2025 and second over the past two years [1][20][21] Performance Summary - Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding (013279) has the following performance rankings: - 1st out of 78 for the past year - 1st out of 71 for the past two years - 1st out of 49 for the past three years [21] - Guotai Ruiyue (016644) has the following performance rankings: - 1st out of 17 for the past year - 2nd out of 13 for the past two years [21] - Guotai Stable Income (014067) has the following performance rankings: - 2nd out of 70 for the past year - 2nd out of 63 for the past two years - 2nd out of 39 for the past three years [21] Investment Philosophy - Investment Director Zeng Hui emphasizes that asset allocation should focus on the most aggressive opportunities rather than a simple average or static allocation, aiming to enhance returns while implementing timing strategies and strict risk control to manage drawdowns [2][22] - The traditional static allocation approach is deemed inadequate for addressing systemic risks, especially with the rise of quantitative methods and rapid ETF development, leading to a transformation in FOF investment strategies [2][22] Quantitative Rotation Model - Zeng Hui's Tai Chi Quantitative Rotation Model focuses on identifying extremes of overbought and oversold conditions, integrating macro risk control timing, industry rotation, and a robust quantitative risk management framework [3][23] - The model aims to capture market cycles by determining buy and sell points based on market fluctuations, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators to trigger alerts for selling during overbought conditions and buying during oversold conditions [3][23] Risk Control and Execution - Zeng Hui prioritizes drawdown control as a fundamental principle, stating that while seeking returns is an art, controlling drawdowns is a science that requires systematic execution [5][24] - A quantitative system is introduced to counteract human biases and ensure effective implementation of risk management strategies [5][24] Future of FOF Management - The future of FOF management is expected to evolve into a competitive environment where managers must excel in multiple asset classes, requiring deep knowledge of stocks, bonds, commodities, and international market rules [6][26] - Zeng Hui's extensive experience and dual approach of subjective and quantitative investment strategies position him well to navigate this evolving landscape [6][26] New Product Launch - Starting January 19, Guotai Multi-Asset Stable Navigation Six-Month Holding Period FOF (025798) will be launched, covering equity assets, Hong Kong Stock Connect targets, and QDII funds, with expectations for strong performance based on past successes [7][26]