流动性合理充裕

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流动性和机构行为周度观察:防范资金空转与流动性合理充裕的平衡-20250819
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-19 01:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital withdrawal, and a 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan was conducted. The overall liquidity remained stable and loose during the week, with a marginal increase in funding rates on the 15th due to the tax period. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report re - mentioned "preventing capital idling", but it is expected not to cause a tightening of the liquidity. The government bond net payment scale increased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, 71.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 22 billion yuan of treasury deposits will mature, and a 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit operation will be carried out on August 18. After the central bank conducted a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, it carried out another 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a total excess roll - over of 30 billion yuan in August [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From August 11 - 15, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.33% and 1.37% respectively, up 1.9 basis points from August 4 - 8; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.6 basis points and down 0.1 basis points from August 4 - 8. DR001 increased marginally to 1.40% on August 15 when entering the tax payment stage. After the tax period ends, the funding rates are expected to return to the stable and loose level in the first half of August [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.036 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.98 billion yuan compared with August 4 - 10. From August 18 - 24, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 26.41 billion yuan [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields**: As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.4600% and 1.5250% respectively, up 1 basis point and down 1 basis point from August 8; the yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6400%, up 2 basis points from August 8 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 131.1 billion yuan. From August 18 - 24, the maturity repayment volume of NCDs is expected to be 794.7 billion yuan, with the roll - over pressure decreasing compared with the previous week [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 - 15, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.83%, compared with 107.70% from August 4 - 8 [10].