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流动性和机构行为周度观察:防范资金空转与流动性合理充裕的平衡-20250819
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-19 01:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital withdrawal, and a 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan was conducted. The overall liquidity remained stable and loose during the week, with a marginal increase in funding rates on the 15th due to the tax period. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report re - mentioned "preventing capital idling", but it is expected not to cause a tightening of the liquidity. The government bond net payment scale increased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, 71.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 22 billion yuan of treasury deposits will mature, and a 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit operation will be carried out on August 18. After the central bank conducted a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, it carried out another 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a total excess roll - over of 30 billion yuan in August [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From August 11 - 15, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.33% and 1.37% respectively, up 1.9 basis points from August 4 - 8; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.6 basis points and down 0.1 basis points from August 4 - 8. DR001 increased marginally to 1.40% on August 15 when entering the tax payment stage. After the tax period ends, the funding rates are expected to return to the stable and loose level in the first half of August [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.036 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.98 billion yuan compared with August 4 - 10. From August 18 - 24, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 26.41 billion yuan [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields**: As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.4600% and 1.5250% respectively, up 1 basis point and down 1 basis point from August 8; the yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6400%, up 2 basis points from August 8 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 131.1 billion yuan. From August 18 - 24, the maturity repayment volume of NCDs is expected to be 794.7 billion yuan, with the roll - over pressure decreasing compared with the previous week [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 - 15, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.83%, compared with 107.70% from August 4 - 8 [10].
央行开展100亿元 7天期逆回购操作
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 06:27
5月5日,中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")发布公告,为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕,当日以利 率招标方式开展了100亿元7天期逆回购操作,中标利率维持2.1%不变。鉴于有500亿元逆回购到期,故 央行当日公开市场实现净回笼400亿元。 一般来说,央行在月末会加大逆回购操作力度以确保月末流动性合理充裕。不过,从上月的情况来看, 央行在4月下旬始终保持100亿元的低量逆回购操作规模。 对此,中国银行研究院研究员梁斯在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,4月份流动性环境一直较为充 裕,DR007(银行间存款类金融机构以利率债为质押的7天期回购利率)多数时点均在2%以下,市场并 未产生明显的流动性需求压力。一方面,4月份央行降准0.25个百分点,释放约5300亿元流动性。另一 方面,截至4月中旬,央行已上缴结存利润6000亿元,主要用于留抵退税和向地方政府转移支付,相当 于投放基础货币6000亿元。 从当前资金价格来看,月初资金面宽松明显。据全国银行间同业拆借中心数据显示,5月5日,除1年期 Shibor(上海银行间同业拆放利率)持平外,其余各期限Shibor均有不同程度下行。 展望本月后期,梁斯认为,流动性将延续4月份的 ...