机构：中金公司 资本开支略上调；资产负债率五年来首次下滑。公司公告已无造纸产能投放，仅剩四条浆线（250 万吨 化学浆，新增一条东莞50万吨拟27Q3 落地），投产地点为天津、重庆、北海、东莞，天津、东莞是传 统箱板瓦楞纸基地，我们认为公司此举或通过增加本色浆优化箱板纸结构，放大传统黑纸系盈利优势。 我们预计公司剩余资本开支100 亿元内，于27Q3 收尾，公司略上调FY26资本开支至125 亿元（前期指 引110 亿元）。截至1HFY26，公司资产负债率64.7%，同比-1ppt，为过去五年首次下滑；经营现金流、 资本开支、自由现金流为33 亿元（同比下滑，主要是应收增多）、52 亿元、-19 亿元。 黑纸：箱板瓦楞纸平稳复苏。我们估算期间吨纸净利约100 元。 往前看，我们认为2026 年行业供给基本收尾、需求平稳增长，我们看好板块周期筑底、迎来供需面平 稳修复行情，近期玖龙各大基地均发布春节后50 元/吨提价函，公司作为国内最大的箱板瓦楞纸龙头 （市占率25%左右），业绩受益板块修复弹性明显。 研究员：徐贇妍/陈彦/楼兰 业绩回顾 1HFY26 业绩符合前期预告和我们预期 公司公告1HFY26 业绩：实 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the paper industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a bottoming cycle with insufficient upward momentum, leading industry leaders to focus on extending their supply chains and enhancing differentiated competitive advantages [12] - The industry is expected to continue facing supply-demand pressures in 2025, with a sustained bottoming of profit cycles as leading companies innovate and expand their scale and differentiation advantages [12] - Major companies are actively expanding their overseas market presence to absorb production capacity [12] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper Sector - Cost improvements and a slight recovery in paper prices are leading to profit recovery, with Q4 2024 pulp prices hitting a bottom and costs stabilizing [3] - In Q1 2025, low-cost pulp gradually entered inventory, and paper prices saw a slight increase, with companies expected to maintain low costs and moderate profit improvements [3][18] - The domestic pulp market is experiencing price fluctuations, with expectations of continued low-level oscillations in Q2 2025 [19] Cultural Paper - Profitability is gradually recovering, with leading companies performing well despite market challenges [4] - Average prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 were 5228 and 5435 CNY/ton respectively, showing year-on-year declines but some recovery in Q1 2025 [22] - Companies like Sun Paper are leveraging raw material strategies and cost control to improve profits [22] White Card Paper - Prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with a slight improvement in profitability [23] - The average price for white card paper increased from 4195 CNY/ton in Q4 2024 to 4307 CNY/ton in Q1 2025, benefiting from supply disruptions [23] - Companies are expected to face increased supply pressures in 2025 due to new capacities coming online [23] Specialty Paper - Leading companies are expanding their advantages and market shares [24] - Prices for specialty paper categories are expected to decline due to short-term supply-demand pressures, but some categories are showing signs of recovery [24] - Companies like Xianhe and Wuzhou are expected to benefit from increased production capacity [24] Waste Paper Sector - Prices are fluctuating, with a recovery in profitability observed [26] - The average price for waste paper in Q4 2024 was 1530 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase, while boxboard and corrugated paper prices also saw slight improvements [26] - The overall profitability of waste paper companies is expected to remain under pressure in Q2 2025 despite cost optimizations [26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with integrated pulp and paper operations and improving profitability, such as Sun Paper and Xianhe, as well as those recovering profitability like Huawang Technology and Wuzhou Specialty Paper [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to weak demand and low paper prices [1][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.656 billion yuan and a net profit of 362 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.19 billion yuan with a net profit of 35 million yuan, while Q1 2025 revenue was 1.989 billion yuan and net profit was 65 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 52% [1] - Overall sales volume in 2024 reached 1.4655 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.72% [2] Production and Cost Analysis - New production capacity from the Hubei base contributed significantly, with three new industrial packaging paper lines achieving sales of 316,800 tons [2] - The average price per ton in 2024 was estimated at 5,224 yuan, a decrease of 473 yuan year-on-year, with Q4 2024 average price at 4,469 yuan per ton [2] - Estimated gross profit per ton for 2024 was 516 yuan, and net profit per ton was 265 yuan, both down by 77 yuan and 50 yuan year-on-year respectively [2] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure remained high at 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 474 million yuan year-on-year, primarily for new base project construction [2] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities was -96 million yuan by the end of 2024, with Q1 2025 capital expenditure at 566 million yuan [2] Development Trends - The company is accelerating the construction of new bases to create a full range of pulp and paper products [3] - Short-term outlook indicates weak demand and cost reductions in pulp prices, limiting price increases for paper [3] - By the end of 2024, the company achieved a production capacity of 2.134 million tons, with plans to exceed 2.8 million tons in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak demand and low paper prices, the profit forecast for 2025 was reduced by 37% to 380 million yuan, with a new forecast for 2026 at 390 million yuan [4] - The target price was lowered by 13% to 13 yuan, with implied upside potential of 12% based on P/E ratios for 2025-2026 [4]