Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The US has intensified oil sanctions, adding a Chinese terminal, local refineries, and shadow tankers to the sanctions list, which affects the sensitive oil supply chain. Due to quota issues, local refineries have low willingness to process sensitive oil, but high sensitive oil shipments lead to high floating and shore - tank inventories and restricted circulation of sensitive oil [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The November - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $61.51 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; the December - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.03 to $65.22 per barrel, a 1.55% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.96% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 6, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 16.334 million barrels, an increase of 3.006 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 2.179 million barrels to 8.107 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.416 million barrels to 2.307 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 0.411 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report expects the 2025 Brent price to be $68.64 per barrel (previously $67.80), and the 2025 WTI crude oil price to be $65.00 per barrel (previously $64.16) [1] - As of the week ending October 8, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 892,000 barrels to a two - week low of 23.669 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will gradually increase oil production, is committed to implementing the OPEC+ agreement, and diesel exports do not require quotas [1] Investment Logic - The US intensifying oil sanctions affects the sensitive oil supply chain. Local refineries' low processing willingness due to quotas and high shipments result in high inventories and restricted circulation of sensitive oil [2] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur cracking spread began to decline this week, the 380 - month spread fluctuated at a high level, and the 380 basis weakened. The low - sulfur cracking spread, month spread, and basis all fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, on - land inventories in Singapore and ARA continued to accumulate, while US residual oil inventories decreased. Singapore's high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, the Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage fluctuated, and low - sulfur floating storage decreased. European floating storage increased significantly. In 2025, pay attention to the impact of sanctions on Iran on global heavy - quality valuations. In the Asian region, focus on whether Russian supply will return to the benchmark. The far - month 380 has downside potential. Recently, global and Singapore residual oil inventories have been increasing, so the near - month 380 is expected to face continued pressure. The low - sulfur market remains in a volatile pattern [3][8] Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data 3.5% HSF Swap M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 397.83. On April 17, it was 408.43, with a change of 10.57 [1] 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 430.85. On April 17, it was 441.13, with a change of 8.40 [1] HSFO - Brent M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 2.30. On April 17, it was - 2.30, with a change of 0.34 [1] 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 595.85. On April 17, it was 607.75, with a change of 10.40 [1] VLSFO - Gasoil M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 165.00. On April 17, it was - 166.62, with a change of - 2.00 [1] LGO - Brent M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 16.43. On April 17, it was 15.93, with a change of 0.19 [1] VLSFO - HSFO M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 33.02. On April 17, it was 32.70, with a change of - 2.17 [1] Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data 380cst M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 413.13. On April 22, it was 423.34, with a change of 3.36 [1] 180cst M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 425.63. On April 22, it was 437.60, with a change of 3.81 [1] VLSFO M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 462.42. On April 22, it was 476.78, with a change of 3.74 [1] Gasoil M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 80.00. On April 22, it was 81.42, with a change of 0.20 [1] 380cst - Brent M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 0.96. On April 22, it was 0.55, with a change of 0.24 [1] VLSFO - Gasoil M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 129.58. On April 22, it was - 125.73, with a change of 2.26 [1] Group 4: Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data FOB 380cst - On April 16, 2025, the price was 416.99. On April 22, it was 422.28, with a change of 5.61 [2] FOB VLSFO - On April 16, 2025, the price was 470.33. On April 22, it was 481.09, with a change of 3.35 [2] 380 Basis - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 0.55. On April 22, it was - 1.35, with a change of 2.70 [2] High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread - On April 16, 2025, the value was 7.3. On April 22, it was 6.9, with a change of - 0.7 [2] Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread - On April 16, 2025, the value was 4.1. On April 22, it was 5.1, with a change of 1.1 [2] Group 5: Domestic FU Data FU 01 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 2637. On April 22, it was 2734, with a change of - 13 [2] FU 05 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3016. On April 22, it was 3035, with a change of - 13 [2] FU 09 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 2758. On April 22, it was 2863, with a change of - 1 [2] FU 01 - 05 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 379. On April 22, it was - 301, with a change of 0 [2] FU 05 - 09 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 258. On April 22, it was 172, with a change of - 12 [2] FU 09 - 01 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 121. On April 22, it was 129, with a change of 12 [2] Group 6: Domestic LU Data LU 01 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3262. On April 22, it was 3352, with a change of 10 [3] LU 05 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3350. On April 22, it was 3478, with a change of 33 [3] LU 09 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3274. On April 22, it was 3387, with a change of 13 [3] LU 01 - 05 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 88. On April 22, it was - 126, with a change of - 23 [3] LU 05 - 09 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 76. On April 22, it was 91, with a change of 20 [3] LU 09 - 01 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 12. On April 22, it was 35, with a change of 3 [3]