The latest U.S. sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports deal a blow to Chinese refining giant Sinopec by targeting a terminal through which the state major handles one-fifth of its crude oil imports, i... ...

原油日报 | 2025-10-10 1、 纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.04美元，收于每桶61.51美元，跌幅为1.66%；12月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.03美元，收于每桶65.22美元，跌幅为1.55%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.96%，报464 元/桶。 2、 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至10月6日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1633.4万 桶，较一周前增加300.6万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加217.9万桶至810.7万桶，中质馏分油库存增加41.6万桶至230.7 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加41.1万桶至592万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 EIA短期能源展望报告：预计2025年布伦特价格为68.64美元/桶，此前预期为67.80美元/桶。预计2025年WTI原 油价格为65.00美元/桶，此前预期为64.16美元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至10月8日当周，新加坡燃料油库存下降892000桶，至2366.9万桶的两周低点。 （来源：Bloomberg） 5、 俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克：俄罗斯将逐 ...

上述待开发的Dragon气田位于委、特两国之间的浅海区域。该项目投产后，将为特立尼达天然气供应短 缺的液化天然气(LNG)综合体及石化工厂补充原料。特立尼达是液化天然气、氨及其他天然气衍生产品 的重要出口国。 壳牌许可证的即将获批，揭示了美国政府对待委内瑞拉的双轨策略：一方面，美国军舰在委内瑞拉沿海 部署，美军战机对涉嫌运毒的船只实施轰炸;另一方面，石油公司高管与特立尼达官员穿梭于华盛顿、 加拉加斯(委内瑞拉首都)和西班牙港(特立尼达和多巴哥首都)之间，力图重启天然气合作计划。 据知情人士透露，壳牌(SHEL.US)正准备重启委内瑞拉某海上天然气田的前期工作，以期向邻国特立尼 达和多巴哥供应天然气。这表明该公司对特朗普政府将签发新许可证、使该项目免遭制裁的信心日益增 强。 Dragon气田距离壳牌位于特立尼达沿海的Hibiscus钻井平台仅数英里之遥。 今年4月，白宫撤销了在委内瑞拉的油气项目许可，试图以此加大对该国的施压——特朗普政府将委内 瑞拉视为贩毒集团的庇护所。而Dragon气田正是特朗普政府政策转向前，委、特两国曾合作推进的多个 海上天然气项目之一。 知情人士表示，今年7月，美国政府已向雪佛龙(CV ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/09/18 | 63.57 | 67.44 | 70.23 | - | 0.52 | -3.87 | 0.39 | 201.14 | 17.04 | 234.00 | 30.84 | | 2025/09/19 | 62.68 | 66.68 | 69.88 | - | 0.64 | -4.00 | 0.46 | 197.07 | 16.09 | 229.89 | 29.87 | | 2025/09/22 | 62.28 | 66.57 | 69.74 | - | ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/15 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/08 | 62.26 | 66.02 | 69.03 | - | 0.35 | -3.76 | 0.47 | 195.86 | 16.24 | 231.19 | 31.08 | | 2025/09/09 | 62.63 | 66.39 | 69.50 | - | 0.28 | -3.76 | 0.34 | 199.25 | 17.30 | 231.99 | 31.05 | | 2025/09/10 | 6 ...

格隆汇9月12日｜据市场消息，作为附加制裁措施的一部分，日本将俄罗斯石油价格上限下调至每桶 47.6美元。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - India's fluctuating oil import strategy from Russia raises questions about its motivations and the influence of U.S. pressure [1][3][10] Group 1: India's Oil Import Dynamics - In August 2025, India's total oil imports decreased by 4%, while imports from Russia increased by 5.6%, raising Russia's share of India's oil imports from 33% to 37% [3][6] - The Indian government appears to be using a strategy of reducing imports to negotiate better prices from Russia, despite U.S. threats of tariffs [4][6] - Indian refiners are primarily focused on acquiring oil at lower prices, and the recent reduction in imports was a tactic to leverage negotiations with Russia [4][6] Group 2: U.S. and Global Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen criticized India for profiting from the resale of Russian oil, claiming it generated at least $16 billion for India's wealthiest families [3][6] - If India were to stop purchasing Russian oil, it could benefit China, which is already increasing its imports of Russian oil, potentially leading to a shift in market dynamics [7][9] - Middle Eastern oil producers may fill the gap left by India in the Russian oil market, leading to a significant market reshuffle [9][10] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Implications - The discounts on Russian oil have decreased from $30-$35 per barrel to around $10, making it less attractive for India to negotiate for further reductions [6][10] - China's increased purchases of Russian oil, particularly Ural and Varandey grades, indicate a strategic move to capitalize on lower prices due to sanctions [6][9] - The overall market for Russian oil remains robust due to its competitive pricing, suggesting that India’s potential withdrawal could backfire economically [10][11]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **tanker shipping industry**, focusing on the current market dynamics and future expectations related to oil and gas transportation. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Freight rates on the Middle East to China route have significantly increased to **WS70 and above**, indicating optimistic market expectations for future rates [1][3] - There is a general sentiment among shipowners to hold back on leasing due to anticipated further increases in freight rates [3][4] - The **U.S. Gulf Coast** continues to see high levels of LNG and crude oil exports, which is consuming some of the Middle Eastern shipping capacity, exacerbating overall capacity tightness [1][3] - The **shadow fleet** is performing well, with routes such as from Venezuela to China experiencing a shortage of available ships [1][3] OPEC and Production Plans - OPEC is expected to discuss a potential increase in production, with a possibility of releasing **1.6 million barrels per day** to regain market share and suppress U.S. shale oil exports [1][5] - The market anticipates that OPEC's strategy to maintain production at lower oil prices could push prices below **$60**, which would significantly impact U.S. shale oil profitability [6][5] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russian oil, while India is expected to increase its imports of Russian crude by **10%-20%**, leading to increased long-haul shipping demand [1][3][6] - Despite sanctions, India is unlikely to significantly reduce Russian oil imports due to favorable pricing, which is crucial for the profitability of Indian refineries [6][7] Shipping Capacity and Fleet Dynamics - The aging fleet poses a risk, as older vessels (over 20 years) are unlikely to compete in a normalized market post-sanctions, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity and potentially higher freight rates [9][10] - Chinese shipyards are refusing to accept older sanctioned vessels for repairs, further limiting their return to the market [9] Future Market Expectations - The overall tanker market is expected to remain tight, with freight rates projected to maintain a range of **$40,000 to $50,000** per day by the end of the year [13][18] - If the shadow fleet continues to grow, the market could see a strong support level for freight rates [13] - The upcoming OPEC meeting and India's oil import policies are critical factors to monitor in the coming months [14] Stock Market Implications - Current valuations of tanker stocks are at a low point, but any marginal improvements in market conditions could lead to increased attention and investment in these stocks [19] Additional Important Insights - The **second-hand ship market** is currently a seller's market, with limited availability of older vessels, particularly VLCCs [16] - The actual price of sanctioned oil is typically about **$5 lower** than Brent crude prices, with freight rates for sanctioned oil varying significantly based on route and vessel type [17] - The impact of geopolitical tensions and sanctions on shipping operations remains a critical area of focus, with ongoing regulatory scrutiny affecting operational costs [8][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices dropping on Friday. The peak season for refinery operations in summer is coming to an end, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. Refinery profits in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories are slightly increasing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are seasonally decreasing, with absolute inventories at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories are decreasing, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are decreasing. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spread is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will drop to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread price expectation for the fourth quarter is raised [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day News - The API crude oil inventory in the U.S. for the week ending August 29 was 622,000 barrels, with an expected value of - 3.4 million barrels and a previous value of - 974,000 barrels [3]. - U.S. President Trump hinted at implementing the second and third phases of oil sanctions against Russia [4]. - Two sources said that OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday as the organization seeks to regain market share. Another increase in production would mean that OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. However, some analysts and OPEC+ sources said that OPEC+ may also suspend the production increase, and the final decision has not been made [5]. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [5][6]. - The EIA gasoline inventory in the U.S. for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, with an expected value of - 915,000 barrels and a previous value of - 792,000 barrels; the EIA refined oil inventory was 2.343 million barrels, with an expected value of 928,000 barrels and a previous value of 714,000 barrels [6]. - From August 22 to 29, the operating rate of major refineries increased slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price dropped on Friday. The inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged at the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly, the refinery profits in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the U.S. gasoline crack spread strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated [7]. - The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories are slightly increasing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are seasonally decreasing, with absolute inventories at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories are decreasing, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are decreasing [7]. - Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spread is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will drop to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread price expectation for the fourth quarter is raised [7].

Core Viewpoint - India's oil imports from Russia are not for "profiteering" but rather to stabilize the market and prevent oil prices from soaring to $200 per barrel [2][2][2] Group 1: India's Position on Russian Oil Imports - Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India's purchases of Russian oil have helped stabilize the market amid global sanctions against Russia [2] - Puri refuted claims that India is acting as a "laundromat" for Russian oil, emphasizing that these accusations are far from the truth [2] - India has become the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, taking advantage of discounted prices following the sanctions imposed by European countries and the U.S. after the Ukraine conflict [2] Group 2: U.S. Response and Criticism - The U.S. has targeted India for its Russian oil purchases, with President Trump imposing tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. to curb these imports [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen accused India of profiting by buying Russian oil at lower prices and reselling refined products at higher prices [2] - White House trade advisor Peter Navarro claimed that India's actions are financially supporting Moscow [2] Group 3: Legality and Compliance of Transactions - Puri emphasized that every oil transaction by India is conducted through "legitimate shipping and insurance, compliant traders, and audited channels" [2] - He asserted that India has not violated any rules and that its actions have prevented a spiral increase in global oil prices [2] - Puri highlighted that the second-largest oil producer in the world supplies nearly 10% of global oil, which is irreplaceable [2]