国信证券近日发布石油石化行业政策点评：全球海洋油气勘探支出持续增加，带动海洋油气储量及产量 快速上升。根据睿咨得能源统计，油气勘探支出方面，2020年由于疫情影响，海上油气绿地项目投资急 速萎缩，随着疫后恢复，海上油气绿地项目投资额快速增加，2022年突破1000亿美元，今明两年有望继 续维持在1000亿美元以上高位，体现了海洋油气的高景气度。 3）投资建议：政策直接减免海洋勘探开发核心设备进口关税，降低设备采购及海上油气勘探开发综合 成本，有效提升项目内部收益率，同时有助于推动深海油气田的开发。建议关注【中国海油 （600938）】、【中海油服（601808）】、【海油发展（600968）】；进口天然气增值税返还机制有助 于平滑进口成本波动，特别是在气价高企时，降低管道天然气及LNG的进口成本压力，建议关注【中 国石油（601857）】、【中国海油】。 4）风险提示：地缘冲突造成的原油价格异常波动；美国关税政策全球贸易及经济的影响；极端天气对 原油开发的影响。 评论： 海洋油气是我国未来开发重点，税收政策有助于我国深海油气项目开发 全球海洋油气勘探支出持续增加，带动海洋油气储量及产量快速上升。根据睿咨得能源 ...

截至2月24日13点32分，石化ETF（159731）涨3.84%，持仓股和邦生物、云天化、川发龙蟒涨幅居前。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计12.50亿元。石化ETF最新份 额达17.61亿份，最新规模17.84亿元。 2月14日，财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合发布"十五五"期间能源资源勘探开发进口税收优惠政策， 聚焦海洋油气勘探与应急保障，对相关自营项目进口的关键设备、仪器等免征进口关税。该政策将有利 于增强我国海洋油气勘探开发能力和应急救援水平，有效降低相关企业进口成本。 国信证券认为，深海油气开发兼具战略价值和商业价值，在政策及一系列科研项目推动下，深海油气开 发有望快速发展，并取得较高经济利益，海洋油气企业有望受益。 平安证券认为，国内油企通过上下游一体化布局和多元化油气进口来源而降低了整体业绩对价格波动的 敏感性，并通过加速在国内挖掘海上油气资源和在一带一路沿线国家投资油气项目等方式降低能源对外 依存度；同时，全球炼油产能增速趋缓，海外成品油供给收紧，汽柴油裂解价差有望修复，或利好国内 油品生产企业。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（01785 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 18.30 RMB and a fair value of 20.41 RMB [9]. Core Insights - The modular design and manufacturing are critical components in the FPSO midstream sector, with significant advantages over non-modular construction methods [9][27]. - The domestic offshore oil and gas development is accelerating due to energy security policies, with the FPSO upper module market expected to reach approximately 10 billion USD annually [9][32]. - The company has demonstrated competitive manufacturing capabilities in the FPSO sector, with plans to expand its production capacity at the Nantong base [9][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Modular Design and Manufacturing - The FPSO industry is primarily composed of three segments: upstream (raw materials and equipment suppliers), midstream (module design and manufacturing), and downstream (client companies) [23]. - Modular construction significantly reduces construction time and costs while improving quality and safety compared to traditional methods [27]. 2. Energy Security and Market Growth - The Chinese government is promoting deep-sea economic development, which is expected to enhance offshore oil and gas capital expenditures [32]. - The annual market size for FPSO upper modules is projected to be around 10 billion USD, driven by domestic policies and international investments, particularly from Brazil [32][45]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The FPSO market is characterized by a few dominant players, with Chinese companies like the company in question, CNOOC Engineering, and CIMC Raffles gaining prominence due to their manufacturing capabilities and cost advantages [49][50]. - The company has engaged in significant projects, including its first FPSO design and manufacturing contract with a Dutch firm, showcasing its growing capabilities in the sector [53]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 2.905 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 5.5% in 2026 and 30.5% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 215 million RMB, with expected growth rates of -10.7% in 2025, 21.9% in 2026, and 35.5% in 2027 [4][60].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Insights - The company is expected to have a capital expenditure of approximately RMB 8.44 billion by 2026, focusing on equipment investment, technology upgrades, R&D, and base construction, indicating a positive development trajectory [2][18]. - The company is a domestic leader in the oil service industry, with an optimized business structure and an expected gradual increase in gross profit margin. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 4.098 billion, RMB 4.274 billion, and RMB 4.560 billion, respectively, with earnings per share of RMB 0.86, RMB 0.90, and RMB 0.96 [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has made significant progress since the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is well-positioned for future growth [2]. Market Conditions - The Brent crude oil price is expected to fluctuate between USD 55-65 per barrel by 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and the high costs of new wells in the U.S. shale oil sector [3][8]. - The marine oil and gas sector is identified as a key area for development, with capital expenditures expected to remain high [9][17]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a drilling ship utilization rate exceeding 90% and an overall equipment utilization rate reaching historical highs by 2025. Key operational metrics are expected to continue improving in 2026 [19][20]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 2%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 4%, 31%, and 4% [24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Insights - The company is expected to have a capital expenditure of approximately RMB 8.44 billion by 2026, focusing on equipment investment, technology upgrades, R&D, and base construction, indicating a positive development trajectory [2][18]. - The Brent crude oil price is projected to fluctuate between USD 55-65 per barrel by 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and the high costs of new shale oil wells in the U.S. [3][8]. - The company is increasing its investment in equipment construction and technology R&D, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3][19]. - As a leading player in the oil service industry, the company is optimizing its business structure, with an anticipated gradual increase in gross profit margins and net profits projected at RMB 40.98 billion, RMB 42.74 billion, and RMB 45.6 billion for 2025-2027 [3][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has made significant progress since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a comprehensive development outlook [2]. Market Conditions - The international oil price is expected to rise slightly due to geopolitical factors, with the U.S. shale oil production facing high operational costs [3][8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 40.98 billion, RMB 42.74 billion, and RMB 45.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.86, RMB 0.90, and RMB 0.96 [3][20]. Investment Strategy - The company is committed to enhancing its operational efficiency through lean cost management and continuous investment in technology, which is expected to yield positive results in the coming years [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced that the Bohai Oilfield, the largest offshore oilfield in China, is expected to achieve a cumulative oil and gas equivalent production of over 40 million tons by 2025, marking a historical high and providing support for national energy security and high-quality economic development [2]. Group 1 - The Bohai Oilfield is the highest-producing and largest offshore oilfield in China, currently operating over 60 oil and gas fields and more than 200 production facilities, with a cumulative crude oil production exceeding 600 million tons [3]. - CNOOC has set a target to achieve an oil and gas production of 40 million tons by 2025, supported by accelerated capacity construction and the completion of key projects such as the Kenli 10-2 and Bozhong 26-6 oilfields [3]. - The technology innovation behind the continuous growth in Bohai Oilfield's production includes the deployment of the first domestically produced shallow-water subsea production system and integrated high-temperature injection and production equipment, which have significantly enhanced oil recovery [5]. Group 2 - The Bohai Oilfield has seen an average annual increase of 5% in oil and gas production over the past five years, with crude oil increments accounting for nearly 40% of the national total increase, establishing it as a core contributor to domestic oil and gas reserves and production [5]. - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the focus will be on constructing a trillion-cubic-meter gas area to further enhance the capacity for marine oil and gas supply [5].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced that the Bohai Oilfield, the largest offshore oilfield in China, is expected to achieve a cumulative oil and gas equivalent production of over 40 million tons by 2025, marking a historical high and providing support for national energy security and high-quality economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Production Goals and Achievements - The Bohai Oilfield is China's highest-producing and largest offshore oilfield, currently operating over 60 oil and gas fields and more than 200 production facilities, with a cumulative crude oil production exceeding 600 million tons [4]. - CNOOC has set a target to achieve an oil and gas production of 40 million tons by 2025, with a focus on accelerating capacity construction and completing record drilling and well completion operations [4][6]. - Key projects, including the Kenli 10-2 and Bozhong 26-6 oilfields, are expected to be rapidly constructed and put into production to support the 40 million tons target [4][6]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The continuous growth in production at the Bohai Oilfield is attributed to technological innovations, including the deployment of the first domestically produced shallow-water underwater production system [6]. - High-temperature integrated injection and production equipment have facilitated the development of unconventional heavy oil fields, significantly increasing thermal production from 300,000 tons to 2 million tons [6]. - Over the past five years, the Bohai Oilfield has achieved an average annual oil and gas production growth rate of 5%, contributing approximately 40% of the national total increase in crude oil production [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of marine hoses in offshore oil and gas extraction, highlighting their advantages over traditional steel pipelines in harsh deep-sea environments [1][11] - The marine hose industry in China is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 2.683 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [12] Industry Overview - Marine hoses, also known as subsea hoses, are essential for connecting offshore oil wells to land terminals, facilitating the transportation of oil and gas [3][11] - The industry has seen a shift towards domestic production, with the first Chinese marine hose developed in 2010 by Wudi Haizhong Hose Manufacturing Co., marking a significant breakthrough in localization [1][11] Market Dynamics - The global demand for energy continues to rise, particularly in developing countries, leading to increased exploration and development of offshore oil and gas resources [1][11] - The marine hose market is expected to expand further due to the acceleration of deep-sea resource development and the growing application of flexible pipelines in cross-sea transportation [12] Industry Chain - The marine hose industry chain includes upstream raw materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications, with a focus on high-density polyethylene (HDPE), cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE), and polypropylene (PP) as key materials [8][10] Production Capacity and Trends - China's polypropylene production capacity is projected to grow from 23.17 million tons in 2018 to 43.69 million tons by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.15% [10] - The marine oil and gas production in China is expected to reach 65.5 million tons of crude oil and 26.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2024, with further increases anticipated in 2025 [11] Competitive Landscape - The marine hose industry in China is dominated by domestic companies, with Wudi Haizhong Hose Manufacturing Co. being a leading player, holding a significant market share [13] - Other notable companies include Hebei Zebang Plastic Technology Co., Yantai Taiyue Fluid Technology Co., and Hebei Hengantai Oil Pipe Co., contributing to a comprehensive industry ecosystem [13][14] Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to focus on technological upgrades and product innovation, aiming for higher pressure resistance and enhanced durability in marine hoses [15] - Environmental considerations will drive the development of eco-friendly materials and production processes, aligning with global marine environmental protection standards [16] - The industry is transitioning towards a comprehensive solution service model, offering lifecycle services that enhance operational efficiency and safety [18]

Core Insights - The "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project has been fully operational since June 25, marking China's largest offshore gas field and a significant step towards large-scale deep-sea oil and gas development [1][2]. Industry Overview - Over 70% of global oil and gas resources are located in oceans, with 40% from deep water. China's South China Sea alone has approximately 2.48 billion tons of oil and 42 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, with about half found in deep water [2]. - The exploration and development of deep-sea oil and gas resources, particularly in the South China Sea, is a long-term and significant growth direction for China [2]. Project Details - The "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field is located 150 kilometers from Sanya, Hainan Province, and has geological reserves exceeding 100 billion cubic meters [2]. - The project has overcome numerous technical challenges associated with deep-water operations, establishing China as a player in the global deep-water oil and gas development arena [3][4]. Technological Innovations - The "Deep Sea No. 1" energy station is the world's first 100,000-ton deep-water semi-submersible production and storage platform, featuring three world-class innovations and 13 domestically developed technologies [4]. - The project has developed a unique operational model combining underwater production systems, shallow water platforms, and deep-water semi-submersible platforms, creating a large-scale oil and gas production facility cluster [6][7]. Production Capacity - The "Deep Sea No. 1" project has a maximum daily production capacity of 15 million cubic meters, with an expected annual output exceeding 4.5 billion cubic meters [7]. - The cumulative production has surpassed 12 billion cubic meters, making it the largest offshore gas field in China and a key supplier for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7]. Future Prospects - The technological and equipment systems established by the "Deep Sea No. 1" project are expected to facilitate the development of other complex deep-water oil and gas fields in the future [8]. - There are vast areas in the South China Sea awaiting exploration, and the advancements made through this project lay a solid foundation for future deep-sea endeavors [8].

Core Insights - China's Bohai Oilfield has established the most densely packed underwater pipeline network in the country, with over 3,200 kilometers of underwater oil and gas pipelines, contributing to a total length of over 10,000 kilometers, ranking among the top in the world [1][2] Group 1: Underwater Pipeline Network - The underwater pipeline is referred to as the "lifeline" of the marine oil and gas production system, connecting internal facilities of oil and gas fields and ensuring stable transportation of resources to land terminals, forming a complete production chain from "subsea wellhead - underwater pipeline - land terminal" [1] - The construction of underwater pipelines has seen significant advancements, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) enhancing original technology and accelerating deepwater oil and gas exploration and development [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - CNOOC has achieved comprehensive upgrades in pipeline laying capabilities, covering a full range of specifications from 2 inches to 48 inches, including single-layer, double-layer, composite, and mother-son pipe types, with technology and equipment capabilities reaching international advanced levels [1] - The evolution of vessel equipment, from first-generation shallow water S-lay pipelaying vessels to second-generation deepwater vessels, has driven the independent and comprehensive upgrade of China's underwater pipeline construction [2] Group 3: International Contributions - CNOOC is actively contributing to energy development in countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" initiative, having undertaken over 10 projects in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with a cumulative laying of over 500 kilometers of underwater oil and gas pipelines [2]