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4月策略观点:财报寻迹,主题突围-2025-04-02
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-02 13:43
Group 1: Market Overview - The market has shown a "first rise then fall" trend since March, with trading volume dropping to around 1.2 trillion, influenced by the peak of annual report disclosures and concerns over tariff issues [8][17]. - Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks; the non-ferrous metals sector has led the primary industries, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) has lagged [8][18]. - The CPI has slightly declined, affecting price elasticity, while the BCI (Business Condition Index) for corporate profits has also retreated, indicating challenges in the recovery of the molecular end [21][28]. Group 2: Industry Insights - In the upstream sector, non-ferrous metals are experiencing upward momentum, with profit growth forecasts for 2025 being adjusted upwards by over 10 percentage points; however, coal sector profit growth forecasts have been downgraded [8][70]. - The midstream manufacturing sector shows strong improvement in machinery and equipment, with expected profit growth in the general and specialized equipment sectors, while the automotive sector continues to maintain a positive outlook with a 11.7% year-on-year profit increase in January-February [8][78]. - In the downstream consumption sector, the food and beverage industry is expected to see small unit growth, while the textile manufacturing sector is projected to experience a mixed performance, with revenue growth expected to be higher than profit growth due to high base effects from the previous year [8][81]. Group 3: Technology and Market Trends - The TMT sector has seen a negative year-on-year profit change in early 2025, with specific segments expected to show high growth in their quarterly reports despite overall challenges [8][87]. - The report highlights a long-term opportunity in the technology growth sector driven by industrial transformation, with expectations of performance divergence between technology and value stocks [8][90]. - The report suggests that if the technology sector completes its emotional clearance and monetary easing is realized, attention should be focused on segments with strong quarterly report support, such as PCB and SOC [8].