Core Insights - The overall confidence index for the Haixi region in Q2 2025 is 109.20, showing a slight decline both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, indicating a stable yet cautious outlook among residents [2][3] Financial Confidence - The financial confidence index stands at 109.35, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.30 and a year-on-year decrease of 0.55, but remains in the optimistic zone [2][7] - Financial investment plan index is at 109.60, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.35 and a year-on-year decline of 0.60, indicating a slight reduction in investment intentions [7] Tourism Confidence - The tourism confidence index is recorded at 112.53, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.20 and a year-on-year decline of 0.47, yet it remains the highest among the indices, suggesting strong tourism sentiment [2][5] - The tourism plan index is at 112.60, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.25 and a year-on-year decline of 0.45, indicating a need for attention despite overall optimism [5] Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index is at 107.81, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.50 and a year-on-year decline of 0.62, marking it as the lowest among the indices and a primary factor in the overall index decline [2][3] Health Confidence - The health confidence index is at 111.28, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.32 and a year-on-year decline of 0.60, indicating that residents maintain a positive outlook on health despite slight decreases [2][10] Living Conditions and Employment Confidence - The living conditions index is at 109.50, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.33 and a year-on-year decline of 0.50, remaining in the optimistic zone [8] - The employment confidence index shows a slight decline to 107.85, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.45 and a year-on-year decrease of 0.65, reflecting cautious sentiment in the job market [8] Durable Goods and Construction Confidence - The durable goods investment index is at 107.43, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.45 and a year-on-year decline of 0.57, yet remains optimistic [9] - The construction confidence index is at 110.00, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.35 and a year-on-year decline of 0.45, but still indicates a positive outlook [9]

Consumer Goods - The core consumer goods include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end markets in Europe and the United States [2] - In April 2025, U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, surpassing market expectations of 0%, while core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2] - The significant drop in retail data in April is attributed to the impact of tariffs, with consumer confidence index declining by 4.8 percentage points to 52.2, the lowest level since August 2022 [2] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are primarily exported to Asia, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key markets including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [4] - Forklift exports are mainly to Asia and Europe, with export values in 2024 accounting for 30% and 34% respectively [4] - Machine tool exports are predominantly to Asia, maintaining around 50% of export value from 2019 to 2024, with notable fluctuations in exports to Russia [4] - Mining machinery exports are concentrated in Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export values in the first four months of 2025 showing increases of 19% to Asia, 16% to Latin America, and 30% to Africa [4][7] Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export value of engineering machinery increased by 10% in the first four months of 2025, with the fastest growth seen in exports to Africa at 61% [5][6] - Cumulative export value to Africa reached 19% of total exports, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [6] - In the first four months of 2025, cumulative exports of forklifts to Africa grew by 37%, and to Latin America by 24% [7] Industrial Capital Goods - In April 2025, the month-on-month export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines were 3%, 17%, and 23% respectively [8] - Cumulative export growth rates for the first four months of 2025 were -1% for forklifts, +9% for machine tools, and +28% for industrial sewing machines [8] Overall Machinery Exports - In April 2025, the export growth rates for major categories of engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery were 8%, 20%, 21%, and 28% respectively [9] - Cumulative growth rates for the first four months of 2025 were 10% for major engineering machinery, 21% for excavators, 28% for tractors, and 21% for mining machinery [9]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The export of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America is negatively impacted by tariffs, while overall data for lawn mowers and engineering machinery is bright [1][10] - In April 2025, the retail sales in the U.S. showed a significant decline, indicating the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, with consumer confidence dropping to its lowest level since August 2022 [3][10] - The cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to April 2025 were 10%, -6%, and 55% respectively, with significant month-on-month declines [4][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The main products include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - The cumulative export amounts to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers from January to April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 9% and 10% respectively, but the growth rates have significantly declined [4][10] Capital Goods - Industrial - The main products include forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines, with a notable increase in exports to emerging markets like Africa and Latin America [5][10] - The cumulative export growth for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines from January to April 2025 was -1%, +9%, and +28% respectively [8][10] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - The cumulative export growth for engineering machinery reached double digits in the first four months of 2025, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing growth rates of 21%, 28%, and 21% respectively [9][10] - The export amounts to Africa showed the fastest growth, reaching 61% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [6][10] Investment Recommendations - For consumer goods, companies to watch include QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo [10] - For industrial capital goods, recommended companies include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Neway CNC [10] - For engineering machinery, companies such as YTO Group, XCMG, and SANY Heavy Industry are highlighted as potential investments [10]