瑞银发表研究报告指，随着香港零售额近期趋稳，九龙仓置业股价年内上涨13%。瑞银相信，由HIBOR 下降驱动，市场已消化了近期零售销售稳定和盈利反弹(预计2025至2026年介乎2%至9%)。然而，长期 阻力仍在持续，主要来自香港人出境旅游反弹；内地税务退税安排更便利；及高端商场竞争加剧。因 此，予该股维持"中性"评级。基于HIBOR假设，瑞银将九龙仓置业2025至27年各年每股盈测上调介乎 4%至8%；认为香港零售销售将在今明两年不太可能录得强劲增长，维持审慎态度，预测今明两年零售 销售几近持平。 ...

瑞银表示，尽管零售额有所反弹，但预期该趋势将是暂时性的，因本地可自由支配支出在十一国庆黄金 周后将面临压力。长期而言，瑞银认为扩大适用试点税务退税方案的陆路边境管制点(包括香港居民)， 以及内地电子商务平台竞争加剧带来结构性阻力。 基于HIBOR假设，瑞银将九龙仓置业2025至27年各年每股盈测上调介乎4%至8%；认为香港零售销售将 在今明两年不太可能录得强劲增长，维持审慎态度，预测今明两年零售销售几近持平。 （原标题：瑞银：升九龙仓置业(01997)目标价至23港元 料长期逆风持续 维持"中性"评级） 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，随着香港零售额近期趋稳，九龙仓置业(01997)股价年内上涨 13%。瑞银相信，由HIBOR下降驱动，市场已消化了近期零售销售稳定和盈利反弹(预计2025至2026年 达2%至9%)。然而，长期阻力仍在持续，主要来自香港人出境旅游反弹；内地税务退税安排更便利；及 高端商场竞争加剧。因此，予该股维持"中性"评级，上调目标价至23港元。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月19日消息，加拿大7月零售销售环比下降0.8%，预估为下降0.8%，前值为增长1.5%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The A - share major indices closed generally higher. The market is in the macro - data verification stage during the performance and policy vacuum period. Although the economic data in August was still under pressure, the previous financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. With the expected reflection of this in subsequent economic data and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut providing room for domestic policy easing, stock indices still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) closed at 4553.2, up 36.2; IH (2509) at 2956.2, up 5.8; IC (2509) at 7252.4, up 90.4; IM (2509) at 7547.0, up 93.0. The prices of the corresponding next - main contracts also showed increases or decreases [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Spreads**: The spreads between current - season and current - month contracts, and next - season and current - month contracts also had different trends [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, and the basis of the corresponding futures contracts also changed [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 24,029.24 billion yuan, up 358.55 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 23,926.52 billion yuan, up 226.53 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 2876.22 billion yuan, up 3.16 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, Shibor increased, and the closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall strength - weakness analysis of the A - share market showed that the technical aspect weakened, while the capital aspect strengthened [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The nine - department policy on expanding service consumption proposed 19 measures in five aspects, including promoting service - consumption seasons and expanding opening - up in certain fields [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing by 2.1% year - on - year after inflation adjustment [2]. 3.6 Key Events - The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest - rate decisions on September 18 and 19 [3].

2025 年 09 月 17 日 铅：缺乏明显驱动，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17055 | -0.61% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2001.5 | -0.87% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 54978 | -3688 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5516 | -964 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 45095 | -1961 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 165625 | -277 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -48 | -2.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -25 | -15 | 进口升贴水（ ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - Year-on-year, retail sales rose by 5%, while the month-on-month growth remained consistent with July's figure of 0.6% [1] - Excluding automotive and parts sales, retail sales increased by 0.7% month-on-month in August [1] Group 2 - Specific categories showed varied performance: automotive and parts sales grew by 0.5%, clothing sales increased by 1%, and online sales rose by 2% [1] - However, furniture and home goods sales experienced a decline of 0.3% month-on-month [1] - Analysts suggest that the growth in retail sales may be influenced by rising prices, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are mostly declining as investors digest strong retail sales data and anticipate a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales in August showed a robust growth of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of strong performance, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (BPs), with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 75 BPs by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue two bonds totaling $98 billion, including $85 billion in 6-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [3] - In the European market, bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 1 BP to 2.705% [3] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields are mostly declining, with the 20-year bond yield rising by 3.3 BPs to 2.678% [3]

美国消费者支出在8月份展现出超预期的强劲势头，零售销售数据连续第三个月增长。此外，经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长2.1%，实现 连续第11个月实现正增长。 16日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 美国8月零售销售环比 0.6%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.5%。 美国8月零售销售(除汽车)环比0.7%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.4%。 美国8月零售销售(除汽车与汽油)环比0.7%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.3%。 8月份的零售增长具有广泛性，在13个主要类别中有9个录得增长。 这轮增长主要由在线零售商、服装店和体育用品店引领，可能反映了返校季购物的提振作用。作为零售报告中唯一的服务业类别，餐饮业支出在 经历前一个月的下滑后，本月反弹增长了0.7%。值得注意的是，即使部分经济学家预计汽车销售将拖累整体数据，该类别销售额仍在继续增长， 只是增速有所放缓。 家具和百货商店的销售额环比降幅最大。 | | | | | Percent Change* | | Jun. 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Kind of Busines ...

Group 1 - Retail sales showed a stronger than expected increase of 0.6% in August, following a 0.5% increase in July, surpassing the forecast of 0.2% [1][2] - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7%, and when excluding both autos and gas, the increase remained at 0.7% [2] - The control group, which impacts GDP calculations, increased by 0.7% after a 0.3% gain in July, indicating robust consumer spending [2][3] Group 2 - The back-to-school shopping season appears to have been strong, with consumers seemingly unaffected by tariffs during August [3] - Import prices increased by 0.3%, which is a decrease from the previous month's increase of 0.4%, contrary to expectations of a decline [3][4] - The data suggests that exporters are not absorbing tariff costs but are passing them on to importers, wholesalers, and retailers, impacting consumer prices [4]