Employment Situation - The Employment Situation report for February revealed a disappointing loss of -92K jobs, significantly below the expected +50K and a drop from the revised +126K in January [1] - The Unemployment Rate increased by 10 basis points to 4.4% [1] Sector Performance - The Healthcare sector experienced a loss of -28K jobs, influenced by a 41-day nursing strike [2] - Other sectors also faced declines: Information Systems and Transportation/Warehousing lost -11K jobs each, while Government jobs decreased by -10K [3] - Social Assistance jobs saw a slight increase of +9K, but overall, the report indicated a negative trend in employment [3] Job Revisions and Trends - The December job figures were revised down from +50K to -17K, contributing to a trailing four-month average of -21K jobs per month, marking the first negative average since the Covid pandemic [2] - The Transportation/Warehousing sector has lost a total of -157K jobs over the past year, representing a decline of -2.4% [3] Wage and Participation Metrics - Hourly wages increased by +0.4% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by +10 basis points [4] - The Average Workweek decreased to 33.8 hours, and Labor Force Participation fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since December 2021 [4] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployment, stood at 7.9% [4] Retail Sales - Retail Sales for January were reported at -0.2%, better than the expected -0.4%, but still lower than the previous month's figure of 0.0% [5] - Excluding autos, retail sales remained flat, but when excluding autos and gas, the figure rose to +0.3%, surpassing the projected +0.2% [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures declined significantly due to the weak employment numbers and rising oil prices, with the Dow down -1.37%, S&P 500 down -1.27%, and Nasdaq down -1.56% [6] - Despite the downturn, the Russell 2000 index is still trading positively year-to-date, although major indexes have seen declines of 2-3% recently [7]

Retail Sales Performance - American consumers reduced their spending at the start of 2026, with retail sales falling by 0.2% in January, following a flat reading in December, which was below economists' forecasts [1] - The decline in retail sales was primarily driven by decreased sales at motor vehicle and auto parts dealerships, as well as gas stations, which reflected a drop in gas prices [2] - Excluding these categories, retail sales increased by 0.3% [2] Impact of Weather and Online Sales - Severe winter weather negatively impacted physical store sales, while online retailers experienced a 1.9% increase in sales during January [3] - Health and personal care stores saw a significant decline of 3% from December, and clothing stores reported a 1.7% drop in sales [3] Retailer Performance Insights - Home furnishings and building materials categories saw gains, indicating some areas of consumer spending remain resilient [4] - Major retailers reported mixed fiscal fourth-quarter results, with Walmart performing well due to lower prices and fast deliveries, while Target faced declines in profits and sales [5] - Home Depot's results exceeded Wall Street expectations despite a cautious consumer environment in a weak housing market [6] Employment and Economic Conditions - The job market showed signs of strain, with American employers unexpectedly cutting 92,000 jobs, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [8] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the economy has made employers cautious about hiring, impacting overall retail performance [7]

Group 1 - Retail sales in the U.S. declined in January, indicating a continuation of a weak trend in consumer spending that has been observed since late last year [1]

Core Insights - Eurozone retail sales experienced an unexpected decline in January, despite a rise in consumer confidence at the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Retail sales in the Eurozone fell unexpectedly in January, indicating potential challenges in consumer spending [1] - Consumer confidence showed an uptick at the start of the year, suggesting a disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending behavior [1]

Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. and Israel conducted a joint military strike on Iran, prompting Iran to retaliate with attacks on Israel and Gulf nations, creating geopolitical uncertainty for investors [1] Labor Market Insights - The upcoming jobs report for February is anticipated, following strong job gains in January where U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs, exceeding economists' forecasts [4] - The labor market showed signs of improvement after a weak end to 2025, although earlier months' job data were revised downward, indicating weaker hiring than expected [4] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - The delayed retail sales report for January is expected this week, with December data showing stalled retail sales attributed to weak labor market growth [5] - Consumers reduced spending towards the end of the previous year, which may impact the upcoming retail sales figures [5] Corporate Earnings and Product Launches - Apple is set to announce new products, including the iPhone 17e and a lower-cost MacBook, during a week of significant product launches [3][7] - Key earnings reports are expected from tech firms such as Broadcom and CrowdStrike, as well as retailers like Costco, Target, and Best Buy [3][7] Economic Conditions Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will provide insights into economic conditions across the country ahead of the central bank's meeting on March 17-18 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian retail sales showed minimal growth in the fourth quarter but are expected to rebound at the beginning of the new year, with a preliminary estimate indicating a 1.5% month-over-month increase in January [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales growth in the fourth quarter was weak, recorded at only 0.1%, with a decline of 0.4% in December [1] - Economists had previously forecasted a 0.5% decrease in December retail sales [1] - Despite uncertainties from U.S. tariffs, retail sales for 2025 increased by 4% compared to the previous year, which had a growth rate of 1.6% [1] Group 2: Sector Growth - Out of nine sub-sectors, eight experienced an increase in sales [1]

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reached 342,102 kilograms, with an increase of 18,734 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 20,420 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 20,968 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 20,944 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a rise of 1.88% [1] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the total warehouse receipts decreased by 63 kilograms at Zhongchu Wusong, while an increase of 12,607 kilograms was noted at Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, contributing to a total of 306,912 kilograms in Shanghai [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao saw an increase of 6,190 kilograms, bringing the total to 35,190 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. retail sales for December recorded a month-on-month change of 0%, significantly below the expected 0.4%, indicating a decline from November's 0.6% [2] - Standard Chartered Bank reported that outflows from silver ETFs are causing increased volatility in silver prices, necessitating close monitoring [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the silver futures market is experiencing a price increase, with the Shanghai silver futures closing at 20,626 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.88% [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on February 12 was reported at 22,025 yuan per kilogram, which is a premium of 1,399 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - The U.S. retail sales data for December 2025 showed an unexpected zero growth, significantly below the expected increase of 0.4%, indicating weak consumer performance among low-income groups [3] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, but precious metals showed limited volatility, suggesting the market is awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve [4] - The Federal Reserve's current policy stance is described as being close to neutral, with no further rate cuts anticipated if inflation decreases and the labor market remains stable [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - US retail sales in December remained flat month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a 0.4% increase, while the control group sales decreased by 0.1%. However, the unadjusted sales figures surged to a record $817 billion, influenced by seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1 - December retail sales in the US showed no month-over-month growth, against a forecasted increase of 0.4% [1][2]. - The control group sales experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [1][2]. - Unadjusted retail sales reached a historic high of $817 billion, significantly impacted by seasonal factors [1][2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of ferronickel will face reduction pressure due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grade, and a significant cut in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year [2] - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the rising ferronickel price has increased the cost support, and the increase in production is limited due to more year - end steel mill overhauls [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, but stainless - steel exports still maintain high growth, showing strong export demand resilience. With the approaching Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere is calming down, and the national stainless - steel social inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation phase [2] - Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustment, both long and short positions are trading cautiously. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the range of 13,700 - 14,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of stainless steel is 14,040 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 8,958 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,618 lots; the position of the main contract is 32,627 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,794 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 54,551 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 421 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 530 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, with a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, with an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 142,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,650 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) in the country is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, with an increase of 8,200 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units; the monthly output of excavators is 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 3,700 units and 1,000 units respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China's fourth - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, conduct regular treasury bond trading operations, and strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [2] - US retail sales in December were weaker than in November (which had a 0.6% month - on - month increase) and also fell short of Wall Street's expected 0.4% month - on - month increase [2]