文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 报告摘要 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1）美国8月标普PMI超预期，制造业PMI初值录得53.3，预期49.7，前值49.8；服务业PMI初值录得 55.4，预期54.2，前值55.7。2） 7月咨商局领先指数符合预期，环比-0.1%，预期-0.1%，前值-0.3%。 3）7 月地产数据超预期 ，新屋开工折年142.8万套，预期129.7万套，前值从132.1万套上修至135.8万套；7月二 手房销量折年401万套，预期392万套，前值393万套。 欧元区：1）8月制造业PMI超预期，初值录得50.5，预期49.5，前值49.8。2）7月CPI终值符合预期 。CPI 同比终值2%，预期2%，前值2%；核心CPI同比2.3%，预期2.3%，前值2.3%。 3） 8月消费者信心指数低于 预期，初值录得-15.5，预期-14.7，前值-14.7。 日本：1）8月制造业PMI回升，初值录得49.9，前值48.9；服务业PMI小幅回落，录得52.7，前值53.6 。 2）6 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价15日跌0.04%报3381.70美元／盎司，本 周累计下跌3.14%。 密歇根大学15日公布，8月份密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为58.6，低于7月份终值61.7，也远低于预 期。经济学家此前普遍预测该指数将升至62。 美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京当日将在美国阿拉斯加举行峰会。市场分析人士认为，此次峰会是对 美国前总统乔·拜登"没有乌克兰就别谈乌克兰问题"方针的否定。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格跌0.13%报38.02美元／盎司，本周累计下跌1.35%。 当天发布的经济数据好坏不一，导致金价变化不大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国商务部15日发布的数据显示，美国7月零售额环比增长0.5%，为连续第二个月零售销售出现大幅增 长；同比涨幅达到3.9%，高于3.5%增长预期。经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长1.2%，连续第十 个月实现正增长，显示消费者支出保持韧性。 纽约联邦储备银行15日发布的数据显示，纽约州制造业指数继7月份为5.5之后，8月份升至11.9，远好于 预期。此前市场普遍预期该指数将下降至0.0。数据显示8月纽约地区制造业活动进一步 ...

Market Performance - On August 15, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.40% and 0.29% respectively [4] - The large tech stocks experienced varied movements, with the US Tech Giants Index declining by 0.34%. META briefly rose nearly 2%, reaching a market capitalization of $2 trillion, but closed at $1.9726 trillion [6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.74%, with notable gains from companies like Xunlei, which surged over 26% [6] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, spot gold prices rose by 0.01%, while international crude oil prices fell [2] - As of August 15, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery dropped by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [8] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August was reported at 58.6, marking a decline from previous values [6] - US retail sales for July increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while core retail sales also grew by 0.3% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, highlighting significant movements in individual stocks, particularly UnitedHealth, and the implications of the upcoming US-Russia summit on market sentiment [2][9]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up while the Nasdaq and S&P indices experienced declines [2]. - UnitedHealth's stock surged over 12%, marking it as a standout performer in the market [3]. Group 2: UnitedHealth Insights - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, purchased 5 million shares of UnitedHealth in Q2, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, while selling its $1 billion stake in T-Mobile [6]. - UnitedHealth is facing multiple challenges, including rising medical costs and a recent leadership change after disappointing earnings [7]. - The company's stock performance has been volatile, with a 52-week high of $630.73 and a low of $234.60, and it currently has a market capitalization of $276.865 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the US dropped from 61.7 in July to 58.6 in August, with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% for the next year [7]. - Retail sales in July showed overall growth, driven by automotive sales and online promotions, indicating a slight increase in consumer spending despite macroeconomic concerns [8]. Group 4: US-Russia Summit - The upcoming summit between Trump and Putin is highly anticipated, with potential implications for the ongoing Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical dynamics [10][12]. - The White House expressed hopes for a peaceful resolution to the war, but the outcomes remain uncertain, particularly regarding Ukraine's territorial integrity and NATO aspirations [13][14].

每经AI快讯，8月15日消息，美国7月零售销售环比增长0.5%，预估为0.6%，前值为0.6%。 ...

美国7月零售销售环比 0.5%，预期 0.6%，前值 0.6%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Insights - Singapore's retail sales in June 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, outperforming May's growth of 1.3%, but showed a month-on-month seasonally adjusted decline of 1.2% [1] Retail Sales Analysis - The decline in retail sales month-on-month is attributed to the school holiday period and a stronger Singapore dollar, leading more families to choose overseas travel, which weakened domestic retail demand [1] - The number of inbound tourists in June dropped to 1.25 million, the lowest point of the year to date, impacting the retail market [1] - Excluding automobile sales, the year-on-year growth in retail sales was only 0.4%, indicating weakness in the core consumer market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

英国6月零售销售同比 1.7%，预期 1.8%，前值 -1.3%。 ...

加拿大5月零售销售环比 -1.1%，预期 -1%，前值 0.3%。 ...