消费市场重构

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价值研究所|Labubu,Z世代的“塑料茅台”
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-13 03:29
Core Viewpoint - The surge in popularity of Labubu has significantly boosted the market value of Pop Mart, reaching HKD 380 billion, with a stock price increase of 1235% since the beginning of 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - A mint green Labubu toy sold for HKD 1.08 million at the 2025 Yongle Spring Auction, contributing to Pop Mart's stock price surpassing HKD 380 billion on June 12 [2]. - The Hong Kong consumer sector has shown strong performance, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect consumer theme index rising over 25% this year, and major players like Pop Mart reaching historical highs [9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The phenomenon of Labubu reflects a shift in consumer behavior, where emotional value is prioritized over material utility, leading to a new consumption structure characterized by rational material consumption and luxurious spiritual consumption [5][6]. - The psychology behind blind box purchases, such as the "completeness" feeling and the excitement of random rewards, drives consumer engagement and addiction [6][9]. Group 3: Brand and IP Development - Labubu is emerging as a new generation super IP, with its search popularity surpassing that of Hello Kitty, indicating its rapid rise in the market [8]. - Analysts suggest that the ability to create a systematic IP operation is crucial for Pop Mart's long-term success, as mere popularity may not sustain its market value [4][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Opinions on Pop Mart's future performance are divided; some analysts see significant long-term growth potential due to its diverse IP and operational capabilities, while others caution that current demand may be a temporary mismatch with supply [10][12]. - Morgan Stanley raised its target price for Pop Mart from HKD 224 to HKD 302, reflecting confidence in its growth potential [10].