消费弹性

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智见|AI时代国人消费习惯的变化及问题对策——基于城乡收入分层的分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 23:24
Core Insights - The article discusses significant changes in consumer habits in China under the influence of AI, analyzing how AI reshapes consumption decision-making paths, consumption stratification, and equity issues, including whether AI exacerbates consumption gaps [1] - It highlights the differences in consumption patterns between urban and rural areas, emphasizing that urban high-income groups adapt more quickly to AI technologies, while rural low-income groups remain focused on basic survival needs [2][3] - The research employs compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and consumption elasticity calculations to compare consumption differences across urban and rural areas during different stages of AI penetration [3][4] Urban vs. Rural Consumption Differences - Urban residents, particularly high-income groups, have better education and digital literacy, leading to quicker adaptation to AI technologies and a shift towards high-end products and services [2] - Rural low-income groups exhibit weaker consumption habit effects, relying on survival rationality and showing slower AI penetration, primarily focusing on basic living expenses [2][8] Stages of AI Impact and Consumption Elasticity - The impact of AI on consumption is gradual, with long-term data smoothing out short-term fluctuations. The study divides AI's influence into two stages: initial (2020-2022) and mature (2022-2024) [3][4] - Consumption elasticity is calculated for various categories, revealing differences in responsiveness to income changes between urban and rural residents across the two stages [4][5] Urban Residents: Basic vs. Quality Consumption - In the initial stage, urban residents prioritize improving living conditions and essential goods, leading to high consumption elasticity. In the mature stage, as basic needs become saturated, elasticity decreases [6][10] - The transition from survival needs to quality pursuits in urban areas results in increased elasticity for categories like transportation and education, driven by income growth and enhanced AI applications [7][10] Rural Residents: Saturation and Activation of Developmental Consumption - Rural residents experience a saturation effect in basic consumption as income rises, leading to reduced elasticity in essential goods. However, there is a growing demand for quality-driven consumption in the mature stage [8][12] - The digitalization of rural areas and improved infrastructure stimulate new consumption patterns, such as online education and smart devices, enhancing responsiveness to income changes [9][12] Banking Strategies for Urban and Rural Residents - For urban residents, banks should shift focus from traditional consumer credit for basic needs to customized financial services for quality consumption, such as smart home products and health management services [10][11] - For rural residents, banks can provide small, short-term loans for essential goods while enhancing digital payment solutions and promoting financial services to meet the growing demand for quality-driven consumption [12][13] Conclusion - AI technology profoundly influences consumer habits in China, reshaping decision-making processes and highlighting urban-rural disparities. The findings indicate a transition from basic consumption to quality consumption in urban areas, while rural areas experience a shift from saturation in basic needs to activation of developmental consumption [14]
关税阴影下的消费弹性:美国6月零售销售超预期反弹
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 13:43
Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In June, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, reaching $720.1 billion, reversing a 0.9% decline in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [2][3] - Year-over-year, retail sales grew by 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May, indicating a sustained recovery in consumer spending [2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and parts, rose by 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The retail sector showed a mixed performance, with health and personal care stores seeing a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while gas stations and electronics stores experienced declines of 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively [2][3] - Non-store retailers (online merchants) reported a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase, and food services and drinking places grew by 6.6%, highlighting the ongoing vitality of online and service consumption [2] Group 3: Trade Price Trends - The import price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending a 0.4% decline in May, with non-fuel import prices increasing by 0.1% [6][7] - Export prices showed stronger performance, increasing by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The synchronized recovery in retail and trade price data underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amid tariff uncertainties, with strong consumer demand supporting import needs [7] - The long-term low energy prices may suppress investment willingness in related sectors, while ongoing tariff concerns could shift from short-term consumption stimulation to long-term confidence suppression [7]