作为美国消费的中坚力量，他们如今将在偿还贷款与生活支出之间作出权衡，非必要消费被迫让位，或 将对下半年美国消费表现形成明显抑制。 2025年，美国联邦学生贷款的还款与征信宽限政策正式结束，意味着过去几年中断的信用评估机制全面 恢复。根据纽约联储数据，今年一季度，近600万借款人贷款逾期90天或以上或违约，有超过220万名新 增拖欠学生贷款的借款人信用评分下降了100多分，面临着还贷压力骤增与融资成本上升叠加的现实挑 战。其中，30~49岁人群受影响尤为显著。 作为美国消费的中坚力量，他们如今将在偿还贷款与生活支出之间作出权衡，非必要消费被迫让位，或 将对下半年美国消费表现形成明显抑制。不仅如此，学生贷款拖欠风险高度集中在中低收入人群、教育 程度较低者、少数族裔和美国经济脆弱的地区，暴露出长期存在的结构性不平等。短期来看，美国消费 可能受信用紧缩与心理预期的抑制；长期而言，教育负担与债务失衡叠加的不平等格局，或将削弱美国 经济的增长动力。 信用评分下降：沉默的债务正在浮出水面 在新冠疫情暴发初期，为了缓解家庭财务压力、避免信用受损，美国政府出台了一项特殊政策：允许联 邦学生贷款借款人暂时不还款，且逾期记录不会被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a systemic solution to address the "pain of macro consumption suppression" and "insufficient total demand" in China's economy, proposing a transition from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven one, which requires significant policy and structural reforms [1]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the historical context of China's economic challenges and the necessity of finding appropriate remedies for total demand insufficiency [8]. Chapter 1: Pain of Consumption Suppression - This chapter outlines the severe consequences of consumption suppression, the challenges of transitioning to a consumption-oriented society, and the deep-rooted causes behind consumption suppression [10]. Chapter 2: Overinvestment Trap - It highlights the unsustainability of investment-driven growth, drawing lessons from historical examples of overinvestment in countries like the Soviet Union and Japan [9]. Chapter 3: The Dilemma of Insufficient Total Demand - The chapter argues that while overcapacity is relative, total demand insufficiency is absolute, and it explores historical efforts to overcome this issue [10]. Chapter 4: Transitioning Fiscal Policy to Promote Consumption - This section discusses the shift from construction-focused fiscal policy to a welfare-oriented fiscal policy, proposing a consumption prosperity plan worth 10 trillion yuan [11]. Chapter 5: Monetary Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - It examines the challenges of transitioning China's monetary policy to support domestic demand expansion, emphasizing the need for new goals and mechanisms [12]. Chapter 6: Deepening Reforms to Increase Resident Income - The chapter identifies the low proportion of disposable income among residents as a critical issue and suggests that income reform is essential for boosting consumption [15]. Chapter 7: Development of the Service Industry - It argues that promoting consumption prosperity must start with the service industry, which has been slow to develop and exacerbates total demand insufficiency [15]. Chapter 8: The Role of the Private Economy - This section discusses how the growth of the private economy is vital for increasing resident income and stimulating consumption [15]. Chapter 9: Creating New Demand through Innovation - The final chapter focuses on how innovation can unlock new demand and drive consumption prosperity [15].