【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including stocks, bonds, commodities, and agricultural products. It points out that the short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market is mainly focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth. Different asset classes are expected to have different trends, with most showing short - term oscillations and some having long - term trends influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and policy factors [2][3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - The US labor market is weak, with the number of Challenger job cuts in October reaching a 20 - year high. The global risk appetite has significantly cooled. In China, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations have increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market should focus on domestic economic growth and policy implementation. For assets, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; most commodity sectors are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to be cautiously watchful [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as phosphoric chemical, aluminum, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased. It was boosted by the weakening US dollar and rising safe - haven demand. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to watch in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of domestic steel rebounded slightly on Thursday. The market's macro sentiment was repaired, but the fundamentals were still weak. The demand for steel has basically peaked this week, and the inventory decline has slowed down significantly. The supply contraction may further intensify. The short - term steel market is expected to be oscillatory and weak [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore strengthened slightly on Thursday. Although steel mills are still expected to cut production, the molten iron output increased slightly this week. The supply pressure is still large, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices continued to rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased as the output of five major steel products declined. The supply of silicon manganese was relatively stable, and the supply of silicon iron was also in a certain state. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Thursday. The supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the pressure remains. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass oscillated on Thursday. Affected by news from Shahe, the price was supported. The supply was stable, the demand was weak year - on - year, and the inventory was relatively high. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to previous large declines and the impact of Shahe, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The number of Challenger job cuts in the US in October increased significantly. The US copper inventory continued to rise, and the domestic refined copper de - stocking was less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper shortage, and the short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillatory [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose significantly on Thursday. The European aluminum premium rebounded. The domestic de - stocking was not smooth, and the supply and imports were at a high level, while the demand was weakening marginally. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to try shorting if the price rises above 21,800 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the demand is still weak. The tin price is at a historical high, and the high price has begun to suppress physical demand. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The Jiangxi Natural Resources Department released a mining right transfer income assessment report, which may promote the resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo. It is advisable to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. The demand was relatively stable, and the social inventory increased slightly at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined slightly on Thursday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The spot price is supported by policy expectations, but the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a high - level range, and range - bound operations are advisable [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's hawkish stance and employment data have increased the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut. The government shutdown will continue, and the oil price is under medium - to - long - term pressure [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt continued to break through the previous low and has not bottomed out yet. The basis is low, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is increasing, and attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The price of PX fluctuated due to news of polyester production cuts. The demand is supported by high PTA开工, and the supply is tight. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose due to production cut news but fell back at night. The market doubts the authenticity of the news. The downstream开工 has declined, and the supply is high. The price is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose with the polyester market but is still under pressure. The port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to be cautious before the price reaches a new low [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose slightly with the polyester sector but is under pressure later. The terminal orders are declining seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term [17]. - **Methanol**: The port spot price of methanol rebounded, and the basis strengthened slightly. The port inventory is at a high level but is showing a slight de - stocking trend. The inland inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. The short - term price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [18]. - **PP**: The market price of PP moved slightly downward. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, but the demand has shown marginal improvement. The crude oil price rebound supports the cost. The price is expected to decline inertia in the short term [19]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE declined. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening after the peak season. The crude oil price provides limited support. The price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable, with individual enterprises raising prices slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mixed. The export price is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. The USDA will release a report on November 15. If the yield per unit is further lowered, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [21]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is sufficient. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the soybean meal inventory may increase, which will limit the upside potential [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil fell. The over - expected production increase since October has put pressure on the price. India's palm oil imports decreased in October, and the production in Malaysia continued to increase in November [22]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean oil adjusted weakly. The supply - demand situation is still unfavorable, but it is relatively resistant to decline. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the basis is strong due to trade concerns [23]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the northern port has limited upward momentum, and the supply - demand situation in North China is balanced. The supply exceeds demand, but the low downstream inventory and strong wheat price provide some support [23]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has been falling since November. The supply pressure remains, and the price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice pickling peak in December [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's attitude, domestic PMI data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends, with short - term volatility and varying degrees of risk and opportunity [2][3] - For commodities, different sectors like black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, which are influenced by both macro and micro factors [4][8][12][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, the dollar index is strengthening due to Powell's hawkish attitude, and global risk appetite is cooling. Domestically, the October PMI is 49.0%, down 0.8% from last month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policy stimulus expectations are increasing. Index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and government bonds may rebound slightly. For commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may fluctuate, while precious metals may correct at high levels [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The weakening PMI data dampened market sentiment, but policy stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. Short - term caution and wait - and - see are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Fed's hawkish attitude and strong dollar index led to an overall shock adjustment of spot gold. In the short term, precious metals may fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. Real demand is improving marginally, and speculative demand has also increased. However, steel mill profits are being compressed, and environmental restrictions may reduce supply. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price fell slightly last Friday, while the futures price strengthened. Macro expectations and reduced arrivals led to a recent rebound. But steel mill profits are low, and iron ore supply pressure is large. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the price of silicon iron raw materials was stable. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] - **Soda Ash**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply is increasing, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand is stable. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by policies, it may be slightly stronger in the short term, and the demand during the year - end completion peak needs attention [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The macro - environment has weakened. The Fed's attitude and China's PMI data are not optimistic. US copper inventories are high, and domestic de - stocking is not as expected. However, the suspension of an Indonesian copper mine may support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8] - **Aluminum**: The price reached a one - year high last Friday and then declined. The Fed's attitude and market sentiment affected the price. The fundamentals changed little, and overseas and domestic de - stocking was not as expected [8] - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the high price suppresses consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short to medium term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production decreased slightly, and the price of raw materials increased. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Due to rumors and hedging pressure, light - position wait - and - see is recommended [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reached a new high. Supply pressure comes from Xinjiang, and demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: The inventory decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The policy expectation and weak reality are in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [11] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the lack of significant transfer of Asia - Pacific procurement after Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is increasing production, but geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The long - term price is expected to be bearish [12] - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is falling. The inventory is being reduced, but the demand is approaching the off - season. The supply pressure is temporarily reduced, but the future trend depends on the rebound of crude oil [12] - **PX**: The crude oil price is fluctuating weakly. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and the price is mainly driven by crude oil costs [13] - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, and the basis has improved. But the supply is still high, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in November [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, but the arrival volume is high. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in November, and the price is testing the previous low [13] - **Short Fiber**: It fluctuates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the pressure is large in the later period. Terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating [14][15] - **Methanol**: The market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is decreasing slightly, while the inland inventory is increasing. The price may decline in the short term but is expected to enter a consolidation phase later [15] - **PP**: The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is high. However, the demand is improving marginally, and the crude oil price provides some cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak in early November. The crude oil price provides limited support, and the price is expected to be under pressure [16] - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The export is expected to remain at a low level [16] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The Sino - US trade window may open, and China's purchase plan may lead to an increase in export expectations. If the yield is further reduced, the cost - repair logic will be strengthened, and the price may continue to rise [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations may increase the cost of imported soybeans but reduce the risk of supply shortage. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [17] - **Palm Oil**: It has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there was over - production in October, the price may be supported by the increase in international oil and crude oil prices, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains [18][19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by the decline of palm and rapeseed oil, the price may continue to weaken. It is in the consumption season, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced [19] - **Corn**: The pressure of wet grain sales is decreasing, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is weak, but the bottom - range support may be effective [19] - **Pigs**: The overall slaughter volume is expected to increase in November, and the profit is in a loss state. The pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice in December [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

Report Title - "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Markets Mostly Rise, with a Large Decline in the European Container Shipping Route - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20251028" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, assets should be evenly allocated. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, both domestic and overseas equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance 1.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 futures closed at 4684.4, with a daily increase of 1.07%, a weekly increase of 1.07%, a monthly increase of 1.44%, a quarterly increase of 1.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.47%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 1.2 Bond Futures - Bond futures generally rose. For example, the 30 - year bond futures had a daily increase of 0.34%, a weekly increase of 0.34%, a monthly increase of 1.32%, a quarterly increase of 1.32%, but a year - to - date decrease of 2.89% [2] 1.3 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index remained unchanged on the day, with a monthly increase of 1.14% and a year - to - date decrease of 8.79%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate also had different trends [2] 1.4 Interest Rates - Interest rates showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield had a daily increase of 1 bp, a monthly decrease of 0.18 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 53 bp [2] 1.5 Industry Indexes - Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed varying degrees of increase, while industries such as food and beverage, and electronics showed varying degrees of decline [3] 1.6 Commodities - Commodities had different performance. For example, COMEX gold had a daily decrease of 0.39%, a monthly increase of 6.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 56.36%. The European container shipping route had a daily decrease of 3.06% and a quarterly decrease of 21.36% [3][4] 2. Macro Analysis 2.1 Overseas Macro - The US government shutdown continued this week. The expectation of China - US tariffs eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. There are four reasons: the lower - than - expected CPI in September, the continuous government shutdown, the increasing economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing expectation of China - US tariffs [6] 2.2 Domestic Macro - The communique of the 20th Fourth Plenary Session was released this week, sending positive signals. The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience. Consumption and investment growth continued to slow down, but the strengthening of policy expectations is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [6] 3. Asset Views - In the short - term, maintain a balanced asset allocation. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] 4. Market Outlook for Each Sector 4.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - related event catalysts. Stock index options and bond futures are expected to fluctuate [7] 4.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and trade tensions ease [7] 4.3 Shipping Sector - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades and there is a lack of upward momentum [7] 4.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to fluctuate due to various factors such as policy disturbances, inventory pressures, and supply - demand relationships [7] 4.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate as they await the clarification of macro - policies [7] 4.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand imbalances, and cost changes [9] 4.7 Agricultural Sector - Agricultural products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand changes [9]

Group 1: Core Views - The article highlights the basic consensus reached between China and the U.S. during recent trade talks, focusing on key economic issues such as maritime logistics, tariff extensions, and agricultural trade [1][6] - U.S. inflation data shows a year-on-year increase of 3% in September, indicating a potential impact on economic policies and market expectations [1] Group 2: Key Commodities - Copper prices have slightly decreased, with tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including power generation and automotive [2][19] - Gold and silver have experienced a pullback due to easing geopolitical tensions and market expectations regarding U.S. interest rate cuts, while central banks continue to accumulate gold as a safe-haven asset [2][18] Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices rose following positive developments in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant gains in technology sectors and overall market liquidity expected to remain favorable [3][10] - The recent Chinese Communist Party meeting emphasized technological self-reliance, which may influence market trends and investment strategies in the upcoming quarter [3][10] Group 4: Industry News - China's National Energy Administration reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in total installed power generation capacity as of September, with solar and wind power showing significant growth [7] - The article discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which may affect global oil supply dynamics and pricing [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market capital in China reached a new high of about 2.02 trillion yuan on October 9, 2025, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift to value in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - Precious metals are strong in the long - term, but there may be adjustments after rapid increases. Copper prices may be supported in the long run due to supply - demand changes [3][18][19]. - The central bank is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and there may be reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading operations [11][12]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, and their trends vary [2][3][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News International News - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in related projects in the next 6 months, and the Pentagon will invest in a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [5]. Domestic News - China's LPR for October remained unchanged, with the 1 - year and 5 - year varieties at 3% and 3.5% respectively, and the central bank may implement a moderately loose monetary policy [6][11]. Industry News - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed on October 28, 21:00, and will be included in the tradable scope for qualified overseas investors [7]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose, while ICE Brent crude oil fell. Other commodities also showed different price changes [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock index: After a high - level shock in September, it will enter a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and the market style may shift to value in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - Treasury bonds: They generally fell. The central bank may implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, which will support treasury bond futures prices [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil: SC fell at night. The decline is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. The reaction of OPEC in November is crucial [13]. - Methanol: It fell at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the inventory of coastal methanol increased [14]. - Rubber: After continuous declines, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually appear [15]. - Polyolefins: The futures continued to be weak, and the price was affected by crude oil and inventory digestion [16]. - Glass and soda ash: Both futures continued to be weak, and they are in the process of inventory digestion [17]. Metals - Precious metals: Gold and silver continued to be strong, but the upward trend at high levels slowed down. There may be adjustments after rapid increases [3][18]. - Copper: The price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [19]. - Zinc: The price rose at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates increased, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one [20]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [21]. Black Metals - Coking coal and coke: The night - session trend was weak. The high iron - water production supports the demand, but there is a risk of blast furnace production cuts [22][23]. - Iron ore: The price was weak, but the demand is supported by strong steel production. The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased rapidly [24]. - Steel: The price was stable and improving. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant [25]. Agricultural Products - Protein meal: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal rose at night. The US soybean crushing data exceeded expectations, but the domestic supply is sufficient [26]. - Oils and fats: The price of rapeseed and palm oil fell at night, while soybean oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market is affected by the Sino - US trade situation [27]. - Sugar: The price of Zhengzhou sugar rose at the end of the night session. The global sugar market is in a stocking phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [28]. - Cotton: The price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The US cotton picking is progressing, and the domestic cotton price lacks upward momentum [29][30]. Shipping Index - Container shipping to Europe: EC fluctuated. The SCFIS European line rebounded after 13 weeks of decline. The market is in a game for the year - end peak season, and it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short term [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].