薛鹤翔、汪洋（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 国内宏观：国内宏观经济在消费与产业政策领域呈现出鲜明特征。消费端，十一假期出行数据反映出旅游 市场复杂态势。出行节奏提前，但整体出行强度逊于五一假期，显示居民出行决策更趋理性，可能与假期 安排、天气等因素有关。在旅游结构上，传统景点热度部分回落，而特色旅游如"省际交界游""边境游"异 军突起，表明消费者对旅游体验的个性化需求增长，旅游市场正在向多元化、特色化转型。免签范围扩大 刺激出境游增长，也反映出国内居民对国际旅游需求的释放以及国家在旅游开放政策上的积极成效，这有 助于带动旅游消费及相关服务业发展。 国外宏观：国庆长假期间，美国9月ADP就业、服务业PMI弱于市场预期。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大幅 低于市场预期的新增5.1万人，年度基准调整对其构成了4.3万人的影响，但就业市场趋势仍为走弱；美国9 月ISM服务业PMI回落至50，其中商业活动、新订单指数分别回落至49.9、50.4。 贵金属：国庆期间黄金持续创历史新高并突破4000美元/盎司，整体上黄金正处于一个历史级别的长期牛之 中，核心驱动包括对美国债务可持续性 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, leading to short - term profit - taking in the index. The technology sector still dominates the market, but with the holiday approaching, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may have a high of 1.8% without incremental negative news, and the short - term downward movement is limited. The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and silver fluctuates in the 41 - 42.5 - dollar range [2]. - The EC (European line) of the container shipping index continues to decline, and the steel price drops with the convergence of the coil - rebar spread [2]. - The iron ore price is supported by the recovery of shipments, the increase in hot metal, and restocking demand. The coal and coke futures have a rebound expectation [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disturbances and interest rate cuts [2]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors like supply - demand expectations, new device production, and检修 (maintenance) [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply prospects, inventory, and market demand [2]. - The prices of special and new - energy products are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions [2] Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The overseas interest rate cut led to a rise and then a fall in A - shares. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The capital situation remains tight, and the bond futures have a slight correction. It is recommended to operate within the range and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at a low price below 3600 dollars (820 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on silver [2]. Black - **Steel**: Try short - term long positions during the correction and shrink the coil - rebar spread of the January contract. Do long - short operations between iron ore and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Do long on the 2601 contract within the 780 - 850 range and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Do long on the 2601 contracts of coking coal, coke, etc., within the corresponding price ranges and conduct long - short arbitrage [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The prices are affected by various factors, and different contracts have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Tin**: The main contract is expected to operate between 285000 - 265000 [2][3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of strong short - term drivers, and attention should be paid to refinery start - up trends. Options can be considered after the volatility increases [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oils**: The prices are affected by factors such as policies and supply - demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply pressure and market demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply prospects and inventory, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. Special and New - Energy - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass, rubber, etc. are affected by factors such as production and sales and macro - drivers, and most are recommended to wait and see [2]. - **New - Energy Products**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions, and corresponding operation suggestions are given [2].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

Summary of Market Transactions on September 12, 2025 Core Insights - The overall market transactions showed a mixed performance across different sectors, with significant variations in both transaction volumes and holding amounts [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index sector transactions amounted to 860.73 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15.38% compared to the previous period [1]. - The holding amount in this sector was 1381.94 billion, down by 1.89% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 61.92% [1]. Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bonds transactions totaled 458.80 billion, a decline of 20.23% [1]. - The holding amount reached 723.76 billion, decreasing by 1.75% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 64.11% [1]. Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions were recorded at 358.52 billion, an increase of 27.67% [1]. - The holding amount in this sector was 523.79 billion, up by 3.58% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 74.07% [1]. Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions amounted to 477.79 billion, showing a significant increase of 34.69% [1]. - The holding amount was 504.51 billion, with a slight increase of 2.04% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 131.45% [1]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions reached 389.62 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.51% [1]. - The holding amount was 446.53 billion, with a marginal increase of 0.44% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 67.68% [1]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions totaled 278.19 billion, down by 4.69% [1]. - The holding amount was 553.24 billion, showing a negligible change of 0.02% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 42.87% [1]. Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions amounted to 283.25 billion, an increase of 5.40% [1]. - The holding amount was 372.92 billion, down by 1.70% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 77.39% [1].

Summary of Market Transactions and Positions Core Insights - The overall market transactions across various sectors showed a mixed performance, with significant fluctuations in both transaction volumes and positions compared to previous periods [1]. Sector-wise Summary - **Stock Index Sector**: - Transaction volume reached 860.73 billion, down by 15.38% from the previous period - Position amount was 1,381.94 billion, down by 1.89% - Transaction-to-position ratio stood at 61.92% [1] - **Government Bonds Sector**: - Transaction volume was 458.80 billion, down by 20.23% - Position amount was 723.76 billion, down by 1.75% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 64.11% [1] - **Base Metals Sector**: - Transaction volume increased to 358.52 billion, up by 27.67% - Position amount was 523.79 billion, up by 3.58% - Transaction-to-position ratio reached 74.07% [1] - **Precious Metals Sector**: - Transaction volume surged to 477.79 billion, up by 34.69% - Position amount was 504.51 billion, up by 2.04% - Transaction-to-position ratio was notably high at 131.45% [1] - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: - Transaction volume was 389.62 billion, up by 7.51% - Position amount was 446.53 billion, up by 0.44% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 67.68% [1] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: - Transaction volume decreased to 278.19 billion, down by 4.69% - Position amount was 553.24 billion, up by 0.02% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 42.87% [1] - **Black Building Materials Sector**: - Transaction volume increased to 283.25 billion, up by 5.40% - Position amount was 372.92 billion, down by 1.70% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 77.39% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw the stock index rebound with oscillations, with the communication sector leading the gains and the power equipment sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. On September 9, the margin trading balance increased by 5952 million yuan to 2303.495 billion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. In the fourth quarter, more incremental policies may be introduced to boost the real economy, and external risks are gradually easing. The increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but one needs to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology - growth stocks, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are mostly composed of dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, and it may undergo shock consolidation in the short term, but the probability of a long - term market continuation is high [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4426.20, 4419.20, 4399.60, and 4379.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4432.40, 4422.80, 4400.60, and 4378.20 respectively. The price increases were 11.60, 10.00, 7.40, and 4.60 respectively, and the corresponding increases in the CSI 300 were 0.26, 0.23, 0.17, and 0.11. The trading volumes were 76988.00, 6115.00, 38360.00, and 9217.00 respectively, and the open interest was 113485.00, 15085.00, 106452.00, and 40453.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were 944.00, 828.00, 4011.00, and 1524.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2925.40, 2925.80, 2924.80, and 2926.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2937.80, 2936.20, 2936.80, and 2939.80 respectively. The price increases were 15.80, 14.60, 15.00, and 16.60 respectively, and the corresponding increases in the SSE 50 were 0.54, 0.50, 0.51, and 0.57. The trading volumes were 33015.00, 2270.00, 14970.00, and 2994.00 respectively, and the open interest was 48255.00, 5673.00, 32649.00, and 9310.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 159.00, - 802.00, 623.00, and 245.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6872.80, 6813.60, 6696.40, and 6550.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6863.40, 6803.00, 6682.80, and 6531.20 respectively. The price decreases were 3.40, 5.00, 9.20, and 15.20 respectively, and the corresponding decreases in the CSI 500 were 0.05, 0.07, 0.14, and 0.23. The trading volumes were 75803.00, 7440.00, 39131.00, and 12223.00 respectively, and the open interest was 105294.00, 15435.00, 88732.00, and 37927.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were 1013.00, 556.00, 801.00, and - 638.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7165.80, 7100.60, 6956.40, and 6776.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7151.00, 7088.60, 6938.20, and 6750.00 respectively. The price decreases were 2.40, 3.80, 10.60, and 19.80 respectively, and the corresponding decreases in the CSI 1000 were 0.03, 0.05, 0.15, and 0.29. The trading volumes were 161976.00, 14887.00, 74810.00, and 23421.00 respectively, and the open interest was 154502.00, 30109.00, 132535.00, and 66557.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 826.00, 1901.00, 1429.00, and 539.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 9.60, - 1.60, - 60.40, and - 62.40 respectively, and the previous values were - 7.00, 0.40, - 59.20, and - 65.20 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4445.36, 2939.59, 6932.11, and 7230.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4436.26, 2928.63, 6928.97, and 7226.03 respectively. The increases were 0.21, 0.37, 0.05, and 0.06 respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 203.60, 56.40, 189.92, and 252.67 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5355.39, 1338.02, 3596.67, and 3961.05 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had decreases of - 0.47%, - 1.21%, - 0.88%, and - 0.61% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.31%, - 0.71%, - 0.08%, and 2.13% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had increases of 4.05% and 0.00% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The previous values of the basis of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 12.96, - 22.56, - 44.76, and - 67.16 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 10.06, - 17.06, - 36.66, and - 57.06 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The previous values of the basis of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.79, - 3.39, - 2.79, and 0.21 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 3.23, - 2.83, - 3.83, and - 2.03 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 68.71, - 129.11, - 249.31, and - 400.91 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 56.17, - 115.37, - 232.57, and - 378.97 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 79.17, - 141.57, - 291.97, and - 480.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 60.23, - 125.43, - 269.63, and - 449.23 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3812.22, 12557.68, 7686.96, and 2904.27 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3807.29, 12510.60, 7676.37, and 2867.97 respectively. The increases were 0.13%, 0.38%, 0.14%, and 1.27% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26200.26, 43837.67, 6532.04, and 23632.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25938.13, 43459.29, 6512.61, and 23718.45 respectively. The increases were 1.01%, 0.87%, 0.30%, and - 0.36% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year due to the high base and the drag of food prices. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and was flat month - on - month, ending the eight - month downward trend [2] - The report on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan since this year pointed out that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, coordinate high - quality development and high - level security, maintain policy continuity and stability, enhance flexibility and predictability, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote the domestic and international dual - cycle, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of the price level, social employment stability, and economic growth [2] - China will unswervingly expand high - level opening - up, actively align with international high - standard economic and trade rules, accelerate pilot implementation in platforms such as free trade pilot zones and national service trade innovation and development demonstration zones, and promote high - quality development of service trade [2] - China opposed the negative words and deeds of the US side, which damaged China's legitimate rights and interests and interfered in China's internal affairs [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly launched a special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on issues such as online trolls and "black public relations" [2] - China has made major breakthroughs in prospecting for strategic emerging industry minerals, discovering an "Asian lithium belt" spanning four provinces and regions and multiple large and super - large lithium mines [2] - In August, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.31, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 12.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory level was below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range. The passenger car terminal retail sales in September are expected to increase steadily month - on - month [2] - The China E - commerce Logistics Index in August was 112.3 points, up 0.3 points from the previous month, reaching a new high this year, and has increased for six consecutive months [2]