1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different futures varieties have distinct market outlooks. Some lack upward drivers, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and some are affected by international trade policies and weather conditions [1]. - **Specific to each variety**: - **Bean meal**: Lacks continuous upward drivers. The Brazilian rainfall forecast is good, and the US - China trade negotiation results regarding soybean import tariffs are still unresolved. Spot oil mills have a reduced sales pressure and a price - holding mentality. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Follow the trend of bean meal. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recent statements from Canada have cooled the market's expectation of tariff improvement. The rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][5]. - **Palm oil**: Enters a phase of weakening supply - demand. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in October and November. Import profit inversion may lead to insufficient imports in December and January, and the price is in low - level consolidation [1][7]. - **Soybean oil**: Short - term supply is sufficient, with domestic inventory higher than the five - year average. The US - China tariff issue has not fully resolved the cost problem of US soybean imports. There is a lack of strong upward drivers, and the recent increase is regarded as a short - term rebound [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The oil mill's operating rate is low, and there is a mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market. It has entered the consumption peak season, but the spot market has high prices with few transactions. The cooling expectation of Sino - Canadian trade relations has led to a stop - falling rebound, but the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: The supply is pressured by the increase in cotton output from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The domestic new cotton harvest is almost completed, with commercial inventory exceeding the same - period level. Downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is fast, and short - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [1][11]. - **Red dates**: The market has a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is becoming more certain. High - inventory old dates and limited downstream acceptance of new products may lead to a weakening and volatile market. Short - selling operations should be carried out carefully according to the purchase price and progress [1][14]. - **Live pigs**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. The market should be vigilant about the short - term rebound risk of the 01 contract. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts. Attention can be paid to the 03 contract in the off - season and the reverse - spread arbitrage opportunities in the far - month contracts [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 114.2989 yuan/ton, down 8.69 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.9 million tons, a decrease of 10.20 million tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.79 million tons, a decrease of 40.50 million tons (5.39%); the bean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, an increase of 9.84 million tons (9.33%) [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2497 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2626.84 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 353.023 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8660 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average price was 8640 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The import cost was 8857 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons (2.36%) from the previous week [7]. Cotton - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 284.78 million tons, an increase of 52 million tons [8]. - **International situation**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is about 14,000 tons. In Pakistan, the new - cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67%, slower than last year [9]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking progress is 95.3%, the inspection volume exceeds 2.4 million tons, the delivery progress is 90.4%, and the sales progress is 18.3%. The national commercial inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak, but the export is expected to stabilize [10]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9590 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from the previous week [12]. - **Production area situation**: In Xinjiang, the red dates have started to be harvested on a large scale. The acquisition prices in different regions are relatively stable. The market's expectation of a new - season production reduction has been adjusted [14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2601) closed at 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national sample enterprises' monthly live - pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, an increase of 5.61 million tons (0.15%); the monthly live - pig slaughter volume was 11.9653 million heads, an increase of 1.2677 million heads (11.85%) [15]. - **Supply and demand situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in November has decreased, but the overall slaughter pressure may still be high. In the medium term, the live - pig slaughter volume in Q1 2026 is expected to increase linearly. In the long term, the capacity reduction of breeding sows is not obvious. The downstream demand is gradually stabilizing [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the "iPhone 17" series has significantly boosted Apple's sales and profits, exceeding market expectations, with a notable increase in stock price during after-hours trading [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal quarter from July to September 2025, Apple reported a sales revenue of $102.466 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year growth [2]. - The net profit for the same period reached $27.466 billion, marking an impressive 86% increase compared to the previous year [2][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $1.85, surpassing market forecasts [4]. Market Impact - Following the positive financial results, Apple's stock price experienced a rise of approximately 4% in pre-market and after-hours trading [2][4]. - The strong sales performance of the new iPhone models contributed to setting a historical sales record for the July to September quarter [4]. Cost Considerations - Due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports from China, it is anticipated that Apple's tariff costs will increase by 30% in the upcoming quarter (October to December), reaching $1.4 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights Apple's strong financial performance in the third quarter, driven by robust service revenue and a positive outlook for the upcoming quarter, despite challenges in iPhone sales and tariffs impacting costs [1][3][20]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Apple reported net sales of $102.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, surpassing analyst expectations of $102.19 billion [8]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter was $1.85, reflecting a 90.7% year-on-year growth, exceeding the analyst forecast of $1.77 [9]. - Net profit reached $27.47 billion, up 86.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since June 2021 [10][21]. - Operating expenses were $15.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [11]. Segment Performance - Service revenue continued to show strong growth, reaching $28.75 billion in the third quarter, a 15.1% increase year-on-year, outperforming analyst expectations [15][22]. - iPhone sales amounted to $49.03 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, but this was a significant slowdown compared to the previous quarter's growth of nearly 13.5% [12][26]. - The sales of Mac computers increased by 12.7% year-on-year, totaling $8.73 billion [13]. - iPad sales were relatively flat, with a slight increase of 0.03% year-on-year, totaling $6.95 billion [14]. Market Performance - In the Americas, net sales were $44.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [15]. - European sales grew by 15.2% year-on-year, reaching $28.7 billion [16]. - The Greater China region saw a decline in sales of 3.6% year-on-year, totaling $14.49 billion, which was below analyst expectations [17][30]. - Japan's sales increased by 12% year-on-year, totaling $6.64 billion [18]. Future Outlook - CEO Tim Cook expressed confidence in the upcoming iPhone 17 series, predicting a strong market response and a two-digit growth in iPhone sales for the fourth quarter [4][26]. - The company expects fourth-quarter revenue growth of 10%-12%, which would mark the highest growth rate in at least four years [24]. - The anticipated sales for the fourth quarter will benefit from the holiday season and the launch of new products, including the iPhone 17 and new MacBook Pro models [24].

Core Insights - President Trump's tariffs are projected to cost global businesses over $1.2 trillion by 2025, primarily impacting consumers [1] - The analysis indicates that the additional expenses for companies may be conservative, based on data from approximately 15,000 sell-side analysts across 9,000 companies [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - Tariffs and trade barriers are likened to taxes on supply chains, leading to a systemic transfer of wealth from corporate profits to workers, suppliers, governments, and infrastructure investors [2] - The U.S. administration's tariffs, including a 10% levy on all goods entering the U.S., have resulted in negotiations and additional duties on various items [2] Group 2: Cost Distribution - The S&P analysis reveals that only one-third of the tariff costs will be borne by companies, with the remaining two-thirds passed on to consumers [3] - The estimated $907 billion impact includes covered companies, while uncovered firms, private equity, and venture capital also share the burden [3] Group 3: Consumer Burden - With real output declining, consumers are experiencing higher prices for fewer goods, indicating that the two-thirds share of costs may be a conservative estimate of their true burden [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current labor market in the U.S. shows no significant hiring or layoffs, with demand and supply contracting at a similar pace, indicating a stable yet cautious economic environment [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - U.S. companies are neither engaging in large-scale hiring nor layoffs, reflecting a balanced labor market [1] - Labor demand remains robust, particularly among high-income groups, suggesting a divergence in economic activity based on income levels [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Productivity - Companies are planning to pass on tariff costs to consumers, indicating a strategy to manage rising expenses [1] - There are signs of improving productivity, which may help alleviate some cost pressures faced by businesses [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers continue to spend, but with more caution compared to previous years, indicating a shift towards more selective purchasing decisions [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Data Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges due to a reduction in available data, complicating its decision-making process [1]

Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a plan to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of more than 80 million electric vehicles, aiming for a doubling of charging service capacity [2] - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month and fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] Financial Data - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year. The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up by 7.2% year-on-year, and the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.58 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.5% year-on-year [3] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to enterprises was approximately 3.1% in September, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year, indicating sustained low loan rates [3] - The total social financing scale increased by 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% as of the end of September [3] Commodity Market - Spot gold prices surged past $4200 per ounce for the first time in history, with a daily increase of over 1.4%. The price of domestic gold jewelry also rose significantly, with some prices exceeding 1235 yuan per gram [4]

Core Insights - According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, by the end of this year, American consumers are expected to bear 55% of the tariff costs [1] - The report indicates that U.S. businesses may absorb 22% of the tariff costs, but the ultimate burden will shift to consumers as price adjustments take time [1] - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a 0.44% increase in core personal consumption expenditures this year and is projected to raise the inflation rate to 3% by December [1] Consumer Impact - The report highlights that despite claims from President Trump that trade partners bear the tariff costs, U.S. importers are responsible for paying tariffs imposed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1] - The cost transfer from businesses to consumers results in higher prices for goods [1] Business Response - Goldman Sachs previously indicated that the share of tariff costs borne by American consumers is increasing [1] - In response to the report, President Trump suggested that Goldman Sachs economists should be replaced, indicating a disagreement with the findings [1]

Group 1 - Nike reported Q1 FY2026 financial data with total revenue of $11.7 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $11 billion [2] - Net profit decreased by 31% to $700 million, but this figure was nearly double the average analyst estimate from Visible Alpha [2] - The company emphasized its strategic focus on the 'Win Now' plan to strengthen core areas such as North America, wholesale, and running, while managing external challenges [2] Group 2 - Revenue growth was observed in all regions except Greater China, where revenue declined by 10% to $1.5 billion [2] - CEO Elliott Hill acknowledged "structural challenges" in the market but expressed confidence in long-term opportunities in China, particularly in running, training, basketball, and soccer apparel [2] - The estimated annual tariff cost was raised to $1.5 billion, a 50% increase from the previous estimate of $1 billion, representing about 3% of Nike's $46.3 billion revenue from last year [2] Group 3 - CEO Elliott Hill indicated that the company's turnaround plan is showing initial signs of progress, but restoring profit growth will take time [3] - Hill mentioned that the company is considering three brands across various sports and 190 countries, each at different development stages [3] - The path to achieving mid to high single-digit revenue growth and strong profit margins will require time and is not linear, but the company has a strategy to achieve these goals [3]

Core Viewpoint - Levi Strauss (LEVI) shares fell by 11.5% in late trading on Friday, raising concerns about the impact of tariff costs on the company's profit outlook [1] Company Summary - The decline in Levi Strauss's stock price reflects market apprehension regarding potential tariff costs affecting profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - McCormick & Company Inc reported a third-quarter earnings beat but faces increased tariff-related cost pressures impacting its 2025 outlook [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings of 85 cents per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of 81 cents per share [1]. - The earnings beat was attributed to sales and SG&A leverage, although gross margins fell short of expectations due to higher commodity and tariff costs [2]. Tariff Exposure - McCormick's tariff exposure has increased to approximately $140 million gross annualized (around $70 million gross exposure for 2025), up from about $90 million gross annualized (approximately $50 million gross exposure for 2025) [2]. - Despite the increase in tariff exposure, it remains within investor expectations [2]. 2025 Earnings Outlook - Management has revised the adjusted earnings outlook for 2025 to a range of $3.00-$3.05 per share, down from the previous projection of $3.03-$3.08 per share, reflecting the gross impact from tariffs of around $70 million [3]. Stock Performance - At the time of publication, McCormick's shares had declined by 3.10% to $66.17 [3].