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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the market [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction lies in the unexpected slow unloading due to previous sanctions and recent weather. Although there are potential bullish factors, the overall market structure is weaker than in previous years. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. - For rubber, the rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, the short - term oil price is not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 16 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 47. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 64 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction is the unexpected slow unloading. There are potential bullish factors, but the overall market structure is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 10, Hubei remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan to 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock index and industrial products rose, and the rubber price also increased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations; the short - side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.49%. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a 2.8% decrease [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 59 yuan to 4775 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 155 (- 39) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+1000) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5410 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 5526 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 6513 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.63% decrease; the Jiangsu port inventory was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.77%, a 0.16% decrease [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7009 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan increase; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan decline. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons; the trader inventory was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6685 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons; the trader inventory was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons; the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 34 yuan to 6652 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars to 818 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. In mid - and early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 256000 tons, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 4636 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 4535 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. On October 24, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2201000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 31 yuan to 4100 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 4152 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 198000 tons, and the East China departure on October 28 was 850 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The main port of ethylene glycol (EG) continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is operating weakly. The spot price of EG in the East China market increased by 2.65% compared to the previous trading day, and the futures price also slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas EG supply. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has rebounded after hitting the bottom [2]. - The strategy includes: cautiously short - selling on rallies for single - side trading; conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 for inter - period trading; and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,111 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton, +0.27% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,178 yuan/ton (up 108 yuan/ton, +2.65% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - based EG was - 527 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, the demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.1 tons (up 3.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (up 4.3 tons month - on - month). From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main port was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.5 tons, with the inventory likely to continue to accumulate [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is generally oversupplied, with Brazil having a bumper harvest and domestic crushing being average. The sugar market is expected to face a larger supply surplus in 2025/26. The short - term outlook for the palm oil market is to continue increasing production and inventory. The corn market is expected to have stable domestic spot prices and strong support for futures. The pig market has short - term supply pressure. The peanut market has limited upside potential due to expected increased planting area. The egg market has sufficient supply, and the apple market may be slightly weaker in the short term. The cotton market is mainly affected by macro factors [3][5][8][20][29][34][38][49][54][59] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT大豆指数 rose 0.45% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT豆粕指数 rose 0.33% to $302.2 per short ton [2] - **相关资讯**: Brazil's soybean production reached 169 million tons this year. Global rapeseed production may be about 800,000 - 900,000 tons less. Brazil launched a 28 - day avian influenza observation period. As of May 23, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2093 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.1%. Soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week and 33.95% year - on - year, and 豆粕 inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week and decreased by 80.47% year - on - year [2] - **逻辑分析**: The overall soybean supply is loose. Domestic oil mills have increasing operating rates, and there is a large inventory - building pressure in the future [3][5] - **交易策略**: Make small - scale long positions unilaterally. Do M11 - 1 positive spreads and widen MRM spreads in arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle strategies in options [6] Sugar - **外盘情况**: Closed [7] - **重要资讯**: In 2025/26, global sugar production is expected to reach 189.318 million tons, with a supply surplus of 11.397 million tons. Domestic spot sugar prices generally declined, and the spot trading was average. From January to April this year, the import of sugar cane at Zhangfeng Port in Yunnan increased by 16.8% year - on - year [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: Brazil is approaching the peak crushing period, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in shock [11] - **交易策略**: View the market as weak in shock unilaterally. Wait and see in arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14] Fats and Oils - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil was closed, and BMD Malaysian palm oil's main price dropped 0.26% to 3819 ringgit per ton [16] - **相关资讯**: From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.73%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean and corn production forecasts were raised. The EU's 2025 rapeseed yield forecast was lowered. Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed price rose, and the production forecast was slightly increased [17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**: In May, Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue increasing production and inventory. The inventory - building speed of domestic soybean oil may slow down, and the vegetable oil market has a pattern of oversupply [20] - **交易策略**: The short - term trend of fats and oils is expected to be in shock. Consider shorting palm oil at the upper edge of the range unilaterally. Consider widening YP 09 spreads at low prices and going long on OI 91 at low prices in arbitrage. Wait and see in options [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures were closed, and the previous trading day's main contract dropped 0.3% [25] - **重要资讯**: In the US corn - producing states, 66.67% of the area is likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures in the next 6 - 10 days, and 39% of the area is likely to have lower - than - normal precipitation. As of May 24, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - crop corn was 86.9%. Brazil's cumulative corn shipments were 37,200 tons. Some areas in Brazil have started harvesting the second - crop corn. The purchase price at the northern port and the price in the North China production area were stable [26][28] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn report is stable, and the sowing is accelerating. The domestic corn supply is relatively small, and the spot price is stable. The 07 corn contract is in low - level shock, and the basis is narrowing [29] - **交易策略**: The 07 corn contract on the outer market has support at around 440 cents per bushel. Try long positions on the 07 corn contract unilaterally. Do arbitrage operations on corn and starch, widen the spread at low prices, and hold long positions in corn and short positions in 07 corn in arbitrage. Consider the strategy of selling call options at high prices for those with spot goods in options [30][31] Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices were generally weak. As of May 20, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets decreased, and the price of 50 - kg sows was stable. On May 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market increased by 1.4% [33][34] - **逻辑分析**: The enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **交易策略**: The market is expected to move in shock unilaterally. Do LH79 reverse spreads in arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle strategies in options [35] Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions were stable. The arrivals and transaction prices of peanut oil mills in different places varied. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of May 22, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises increased, and as of May 23, the peanut oil inventory decreased [36][37] - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is still scarce. Although the price of new - season peanuts in Henan has risen, the expected increase in planting area limits the upside potential [38] - **交易策略**: Wait and see for the 10 - peanut contract unilaterally. Wait and see in arbitrage and options [39][40][41] Eggs - **重要资讯**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas decreased. Most of the national mainstream prices rose later. In April, the number of laying hens in production increased, and the number of hatched chicks also increased. The number of culled hens increased in the week of May 16, and the average culling age decreased. As of May 1, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased. As of May 15, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs increased, and the expected profit per laying hen also increased [44][45][46] - **交易逻辑**: The overall egg supply is sufficient. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, it has shown signs of stability. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [49] Apples - **重要资讯**: As of April 16, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas decreased, and the inventory - removal speed was faster than the same period last year. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume of fresh apples increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The apple market in the origin was stable, with storage merchants being active in selling and market merchants being cautious in purchasing. Apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi were stable [50][51][53] - **交易逻辑**: The recent rainfall in Shaanxi has alleviated the drought. The market may revise its previous pessimistic expectations. Entering the off - season of apple consumption, the spot market sales have slowed down. However, the low inventory supports the spot price. The 2510 contract is expected to have limited downward space [54] - **交易策略**: Consider closing out short positions and waiting and seeing unilaterally. Do long positions on 08 and short positions on 09 in arbitrage. Wait and see in options [52] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: Closed [56] - **重要资讯**: As of May 20, the drought index in the US cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level. As of May 16, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures decreased. The domestic cotton spot trading was generally light, and the main basis was firm [57][58] - **交易逻辑**: The commercial inventory on the supply side has decreased significantly recently. The weather in the new - cotton producing areas has little impact on the growth of new cotton. The demand has improved due to the reduction of macro - tariffs, but there is no obvious increase in new orders in the off - season. The market is mainly dominated by macro factors [59] - **交易策略**: The US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in shock, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to move in shock. Wait and see in arbitrage and options [60][61]