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激活消费潜能,构筑高质量发展新格局
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has identified boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, emphasizing its importance for economic security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 1: Importance of Consumption - Consumption is the most fundamental and stable pillar of economic growth, providing solid support for long-term development [2] - Current structural issues include an imbalance between supply and demand, with insufficient consumption and low industrial prices being prominent challenges [2] - Transitioning from an investment and export-driven growth model to one focused on domestic consumption is crucial for enhancing economic quality [2][3] Group 2: Structural Upgrades in Consumption - The shift in consumption patterns reflects a move from quantity to quality, with increasing demand for high-quality goods and services [3] - This transformation is driving supply-side responses, prompting companies to innovate in technology, business models, and service offerings [3][4] - Enhancing the quality of goods and services, particularly in sectors like elderly care and cultural products, is essential for addressing public concerns and ensuring equitable access to development benefits [4] Group 3: Potential of the Chinese Consumption Market - China's consumption market has significant growth potential, supported by a large population and a relatively low share of consumption in GDP compared to developed countries [5][6] - The current service consumption share in per capita consumption is 46.1%, lower than in Japan and the U.S., indicating room for improvement [6] - The ongoing transition in consumption patterns, particularly towards services and cultural spending, is expected to drive future growth [6] Group 4: Addressing Supply and Demand Constraints - The lack of consumer confidence and insufficient high-quality supply are major barriers to consumption growth [7] - A comprehensive approach is needed to stimulate consumption, focusing on income stability, regulatory improvements, and supply upgrades [7][8] - Strategies to increase household income and enhance the consumption environment are critical for unlocking consumer potential [8][9] Group 5: Infrastructure and Policy Support - Infrastructure investment plays a vital role in stabilizing the economy and creating a conducive environment for consumption [10] - Policies should aim to enhance the efficiency of goods and services circulation, particularly in lower-tier markets, to ensure accessibility and affordability [10]
诚通证券研究所李宗光、钟山:激活消费潜能 构筑高质量发展新格局
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, recognizing it as a long-term strategic choice for economic security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 1: Importance of Consumption - Consumption is the most fundamental and stable pillar of economic growth, providing solid support for long-term development [2] - Current structural issues include imbalances in supply and demand, insufficient consumption, and low industrial prices, necessitating a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model [2][3] - The transformation of consumption patterns reflects a shift from quantity to quality, with increasing demand for high-quality goods and services [2][3] Group 2: Supply-Side Response - The shift in consumption structure is driving supply-side responses, prompting companies to innovate in technology, business models, and resource allocation [3] - This "demand-driven supply" cycle is essential for optimizing industrial structure and nurturing new productive forces [3] Group 3: Market Potential - China's consumption market has significant growth potential, supported by a large population and a relatively low share of consumption in GDP compared to developed countries [5][6] - The current service consumption share is 46.1%, lower than Japan and the U.S., indicating room for improvement [6] Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The core issues in the consumption market include both demand-side and supply-side constraints, such as unstable income expectations and insufficient quality supply [7] - A systematic approach is needed to activate consumption, focusing on income stability, environmental improvements, supply upgrades, and infrastructure development [7][10] Group 5: Strategies for Growth - To promote stable income growth, measures include enhancing employment opportunities and reforming income distribution to increase residents' share of national income [8][9] - Creating a safe and friendly consumption environment is crucial to eliminate consumer hesitance [9] - Innovations in service consumption and the development of new consumption scenarios are essential to stimulate consumer willingness [9][10]