中金研究 在全球股市经验的首篇 《股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性》 ，我们复盘了1980年代以来美国股市长牛的历史经验。本篇作为系列报告的第二篇，我 们回顾1990年代资产泡沫破灭后的十多年间，日本股市结构性上涨的历史启示。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 1990年后，日本经历"失落的二十年"。但我们认为，仅从整体角度看日本宏观经济基本面和股市，忽视了其中的结构性转变和投资机会，这二十年中，日 本股市出现明显的"结构性"行情。 日本结构性上涨背后反映的是日本经济的结构性转变，是企业出海、高技术主导和公司治理改善共同作用的结果。 如果把日本对国内地产和通缩暴露较 多的"老经济"行业去除，"新经济"行业指数在90年代后趋势走强。其中，工业、科技、通信，甚至大消费板块表现较好。除资产端外，稳定的资金，尤其 是长线资金和海外资金入市，对日本结构性上涨形成资金端支撑。 海外暴露： 90年代日本出口保持高增，对外直接投资增加。制造业，特别是高端制造业，是日本对外投资的主要方向，带动日本海外生产和销售占比提 升。日本海外投资具有更高的利润率，改善企业整体盈利能力。 高技术主导： 日本国内宏观层面长期低迷并 ...

在日常生活中，我们难免会遇到需要投诉企业的情况。无论是产品质量问题、服务态度不佳，还是合同 纠纷、虚假宣传，找到合适的投诉渠道至关重要。很多消费者在权益受损时往往手足无措，不知道该找 哪个部门、通过什么途径维权。本文将系统梳理目前主流的几种投诉渠道，帮助您在需要时能够快速选 择最适合的维权方式。 一、官方投诉渠道：权威可靠 1． 市场监督管理部门 - 12315平台 12315是全国统一的市场监督管理部门投诉举报平台，受理范围涵盖产品质量、食品安全、价格违法、 虚假广告等多个领域。该平台的最大优势在于其权威性和强制性，投诉信息会直接进入市场监管部门的 处理流程，对企业的约束力较强。消费者可以通过网站、APP、微信小程序或电话等多种方式进行投 诉。 2． 行业主管部门 除了综合性的12315平台，各行业也有相应的主管部门负责处理投诉。例如： ·通信行业可投诉至工业和信息化部12381； ·银行业保险业可投诉至国家金融监督管理总局12378； ·交通运输问题可投诉至12328交通运输服务监督电话。 这些行业主管部门对各自领域的企业具有直接管理权限，处理专业性问题时更具针对性。 二、第三方投诉平台 【下载黑猫投诉客 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to continue lowering interest rates due to weak employment data, with a potential third consecutive rate cut in December being discussed [1][2] - The ISM services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, indicating economic expansion and potentially alleviating pressure on the Fed to cut rates further [2] - The manufacturing PMI, however, declined to 48.7 in October, suggesting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may counterbalance the positive signals from the services sector [3] Group 2 - The services sector, which is the largest part of the U.S. economy, showed resilience with improvements in business activity and new orders, potentially allowing the Fed more time to assess the economic situation [2] - Despite the positive services data, concerns remain regarding the manufacturing sector's performance, with several industries experiencing contraction [3] - The Fed's balancing act between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment continues to create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, up from 50 in September, indicating economic expansion and surpassing market expectations of 50.8[2] - The services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.2%[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September, below the expected 49.5, indicating contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, recovering from a loss of 29,000 in September, suggesting a slowdown in job losses[1] - The price index for services rose to 70, the highest since 2022, indicating persistent inflation pressures in the services sector[2] - Core inflation is beginning to stabilize due to tariff transmission and reduced labor supply[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a potential pause in December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate around 3.8% (target range 3.75%-4%) [1] - Further rate cuts may occur next year, with a target federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% by year-end as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has identified boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, emphasizing its importance for economic security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 1: Importance of Consumption - Consumption is the most fundamental and stable pillar of economic growth, providing solid support for long-term development [2] - Current structural issues include an imbalance between supply and demand, with insufficient consumption and low industrial prices being prominent challenges [2] - Transitioning from an investment and export-driven growth model to one focused on domestic consumption is crucial for enhancing economic quality [2][3] Group 2: Structural Upgrades in Consumption - The shift in consumption patterns reflects a move from quantity to quality, with increasing demand for high-quality goods and services [3] - This transformation is driving supply-side responses, prompting companies to innovate in technology, business models, and service offerings [3][4] - Enhancing the quality of goods and services, particularly in sectors like elderly care and cultural products, is essential for addressing public concerns and ensuring equitable access to development benefits [4] Group 3: Potential of the Chinese Consumption Market - China's consumption market has significant growth potential, supported by a large population and a relatively low share of consumption in GDP compared to developed countries [5][6] - The current service consumption share in per capita consumption is 46.1%, lower than in Japan and the U.S., indicating room for improvement [6] - The ongoing transition in consumption patterns, particularly towards services and cultural spending, is expected to drive future growth [6] Group 4: Addressing Supply and Demand Constraints - The lack of consumer confidence and insufficient high-quality supply are major barriers to consumption growth [7] - A comprehensive approach is needed to stimulate consumption, focusing on income stability, regulatory improvements, and supply upgrades [7][8] - Strategies to increase household income and enhance the consumption environment are critical for unlocking consumer potential [8][9] Group 5: Infrastructure and Policy Support - Infrastructure investment plays a vital role in stabilizing the economy and creating a conducive environment for consumption [10] - Policies should aim to enhance the efficiency of goods and services circulation, particularly in lower-tier markets, to ensure accessibility and affordability [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, recognizing it as a long-term strategic choice for economic security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 1: Importance of Consumption - Consumption is the most fundamental and stable pillar of economic growth, providing solid support for long-term development [2] - Current structural issues include imbalances in supply and demand, insufficient consumption, and low industrial prices, necessitating a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model [2][3] - The transformation of consumption patterns reflects a shift from quantity to quality, with increasing demand for high-quality goods and services [2][3] Group 2: Supply-Side Response - The shift in consumption structure is driving supply-side responses, prompting companies to innovate in technology, business models, and resource allocation [3] - This "demand-driven supply" cycle is essential for optimizing industrial structure and nurturing new productive forces [3] Group 3: Market Potential - China's consumption market has significant growth potential, supported by a large population and a relatively low share of consumption in GDP compared to developed countries [5][6] - The current service consumption share is 46.1%, lower than Japan and the U.S., indicating room for improvement [6] Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The core issues in the consumption market include both demand-side and supply-side constraints, such as unstable income expectations and insufficient quality supply [7] - A systematic approach is needed to activate consumption, focusing on income stability, environmental improvements, supply upgrades, and infrastructure development [7][10] Group 5: Strategies for Growth - To promote stable income growth, measures include enhancing employment opportunities and reforming income distribution to increase residents' share of national income [8][9] - Creating a safe and friendly consumption environment is crucial to eliminate consumer hesitance [9] - Innovations in service consumption and the development of new consumption scenarios are essential to stimulate consumer willingness [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a long-term strategic choice for economic security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's livelihoods, especially in the context of a complex global environment [1] Group 1: Consumption as Economic Driver - Consumption is identified as the most fundamental and stable pillar of economic growth, providing solid support for long-term development [1] - The current structural issues in China include insufficient consumption and low industrial prices, necessitating a shift from investment and export-driven growth to a consumption-driven model [1][2] - The transformation towards a strong domestic consumption market is crucial for enhancing economic quality and resilience against external shocks [1] Group 2: Structural Upgrades in Consumption - Chinese consumer behavior is shifting from quantity to quality, with increasing demand for high-quality goods and services, particularly in sectors like culture, tourism, education, and healthcare [2] - This structural upgrade in consumption is driving supply-side responses, prompting companies to innovate in technology, business models, and resource allocation towards high-value sectors [2][3] - The goal of boosting consumption is to improve the actual living standards of families, reflecting a country's economic development and social progress [2] Group 3: Potential of the Chinese Consumption Market - China's consumption market has significant growth potential, supported by a large population base, despite challenges like an aging population [3][4] - The current consumption as a percentage of GDP is around 40%, which is lower than that of major developed countries, indicating room for optimization [3] - Service consumption in China is also lagging behind, with only 46.1% of per capita consumption in 2024 being service-related, compared to higher levels in Japan and the U.S. [3] Group 4: Systematic Solutions for Consumption Activation - The core issues in the consumption market stem from both demand and supply constraints, necessitating a comprehensive approach to stimulate consumption [5] - Strategies include stabilizing and increasing household income, improving the consumption environment, and enhancing the quality of supply [6][7] - Infrastructure investment is crucial for creating a favorable consumption environment, promoting a cycle of "infrastructure boosting consumption" [8]

Core Insights - The insurance industry is undergoing a profound transformation through deep integration with cutting-edge technology [1] - The collaboration between Huawei and China Pacific Insurance aims to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making accuracy in key areas such as sales and claims [1] - This partnership represents not only a technological upgrade but also a practical implementation of strategic pathways for digital transformation in the financial insurance sector [1] Group 1 - The "Pacific Insurance Financial Industry Lighthouse" initiative brings multiple positive effects, providing high-performance computing support for China Pacific Insurance's business system [1] - The use of large model technology significantly improves operational efficiency and decision-making accuracy in critical processes [1] - The successful collaboration between Pacific Insurance Technology and Huawei validates the feasible model of "independent innovation + scenario application" [1] Group 2 - The partnership offers advanced concepts and practical frameworks for the digital transformation of the domestic financial insurance industry [1]

Core Insights - The delivery of 28 electric buses to Ethiopia, backed by China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation, highlights the growing demand for green transportation in the country as a new member of the BRICS [1] - The project showcases the collaboration between Xiamen Jianfa Light Industry Co., Ltd. and a leading domestic bus manufacturer, emphasizing resource sharing and complementary advantages in promoting high-quality Chinese manufacturing abroad [1] - The initiative aligns with Xiamen's status as one of the first cities in China to innovate and apply supply chain solutions, enhancing the local economy and supporting the development of a modern transportation system in Ethiopia [1] Company Insights - Xiamen Jianfa Light Industry Co., Ltd. has integrated resources effectively to meet market demands, focusing on customized production and a comprehensive service system from design to training and parts supply [1] - The company is leveraging its strengths in supply chain management to facilitate the export of domestically produced electric buses, contributing to the global green transportation movement [1] Industry Insights - The project is part of a broader trend in Ethiopia, where there is an increasing emphasis on upgrading public transportation facilities and adopting green vehicles [1] - China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation has developed a tailored risk protection plan for the export project, fostering a collaborative ecosystem of "supply chain + manufacturing + finance" to ensure smooth operations and market expansion [1]