Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve officials should exercise caution regarding further interest rate cuts, as a strong economic rebound is expected in early next year, driven by factors such as the end of government shutdowns and fiscal support [1][2] - The current Federal Reserve policy rate is nearing a level that will not exert downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking overly accommodative monetary policy [1] - There is a growing economic pressure on low- and middle-income households, as many are increasingly seeking assistance from food banks and utility payment aid, highlighting the erosion of consumer purchasing power due to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Approximately 40% of the inflation above the 2% target is attributed to tariff factors, and decision-makers need to address other price-increasing elements, including persistent service sector inflation [2] - Despite a softening labor market and potential increases in unemployment due to government shutdowns, employment is expected to stabilize near full employment levels [2] - Concerns about asset valuations have been raised, with indications that housing prices appear high relative to historical standards and stock prices are also elevated, reflecting the effects of a loose financial environment [2]

周四，前美国财政部长耶伦警告称，尽管近期美国通胀呈现放缓趋势，特朗普计划实施的新一轮关税措 施，预计将导致物价上涨，并使美国家庭的平均收入下降。 耶伦表示："我预计，今年同比通胀率将至少上升至3%，甚至略高，主要是由于关税影响。" 这位曾在奥巴马和拜登政府担任重要职务的经济学家指出，尽管特朗普关税计划的细节尚未完全明 确，"目前仍有大量不确定性"，她强调："我几乎可以肯定地说，我们将会看到这些关税推高商品价 格。" 耶伦进一步指出，关税带来的价格上涨将侵蚀消费者购买力，进而压低家庭实际收入。"我看到的最乐 观的估计是，每个美国家庭的收入将因此减少约1000美元。"她补充说，若关税政策扩展或影响更广 泛，"实际损失可能远高于这一数值"。 在周四白宫的活动中，特朗普更是直言不讳地称鲍威尔为"蠢货"，加剧了政界与金融圈之间的紧张气 氛。 耶伦呼吁美联储保持警觉，关注由关税引发的"二轮效应"，包括工资上涨、通胀预期上行等可能加剧整 体通胀的风险。她表示，美联储目前尚无法准确评估关税如何影响劳动力市场支出或整体通胀水平，因 此她预计"美联储将继续保持观望姿态"。 换句话说，尽管政治上对于利率政策存在强烈施压，美联储短期 ...