2025年11月24日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位回落 | 9 | | 铝：关注下方支撑 | 11 | | 氧化铝：基本面压力仍在 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | 沪金2512 | 昨日收盘价 932.56 | 日涨幅 -0.47% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 933.90 | 夜盘涨幅 -0.66% | ...

来源：锦缎 时间：2025年11月20日 人物：Lisa D. Cook，美联储理事 演进主题：《政策制定者视角下的金融稳定》 地点：华盛顿特区乔治城大学麦克多诺商学院普萨罗斯金融市场与政策中心。 感谢丽娜。重返乔治城大学与普萨罗斯中心，我深感荣幸。*1 我曾在此地及周边度过许多时光，职业生涯初期还曾在此担任国会实习生。或许命运早有 预示——当年夏天我研究的课题之一便是《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》。事实证明，年轻时接触这些知识确实令我获益良多。 作为美联储理事会金融稳定委员会主席，金融稳定始终是我关注的核心议题。请允许我首先表明：当前金融体系依然稳健，这得益于家庭与企业强劲的资 产负债状况，以及银行体系充足的整体资本水平。本月早些时候，美联储发布了半年度《金融稳定报告》最新版。该报告在确认体系韧性的同时，也指出 了近期报告中持续提示的若干风险与脆弱性。 今日我将重点论述三大脆弱性领域：资产估值；企业贷款从传统银行信贷向私人信贷的结构性转变；以及对冲基金在美国国债市场日益凸显的投资者角 色。最后，我将探讨一个长期议题——生成式人工智能在金融市场交易中的应用，这种技术既可能增强也可能削弱金融稳定。 首先让我们从宏观视 ...

私人信贷市场更是暗藏玄机： 这个规模已占美国GDP 11%的市场，正在成为新的风险策源地。瑞银最新报告预计，2026年私人信贷违约率可能上升3个百分点，远超杠杆贷款和高收益 债券。更麻烦的是，私人信贷与银行、保险机构的关联日益紧密，穆迪数据显示美国银行业对私人信贷机构的贷款已激增至近3000亿美元。一旦某个环 节出事，很容易演变成系统性风险。 但库克也给了一颗定心丸： 老铁们，美联储理事库克刚刚扔出一颗"深水炸弹"，直言多个资产类别估值已处于历史高位，价格大跌的可能性正在上升！这位掌管货币政策的核心人物 亲自下场预警，信号意义非同小可。 先看风险点在哪里： 库克点名了四大领域——股市、公司债券、杠杆贷款和房地产市场。这些资产的共同特点是流动性充裕时涨得欢，一旦资金收紧就容易"闪崩"。更关键的 是，她特别提到对冲基金持有美债比例已飙升至10.3%，创历史新高。这意味着若市场风向突变，对冲基金被迫平仓可能引发连锁抛售。 她强调当前金融体系韧性远胜2008年，银行资本充足率更高，不太可能重演当年那种全面危机。这话的潜台词是：会调整，但不会崩盘。 对咱们中长线投资者的策略： 1. 远离高估值赛道：特别是依赖低成本融资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global investors are optimistic about the Japanese yen's performance in 2024, expecting it to outperform major currencies after a tumultuous year [1][3]. - Approximately one-third of the 170 fund managers surveyed by Bank of America believe the yen will deliver the best returns next year, with gold and the US dollar following closely behind [1][6]. - The yen's current optimism contrasts sharply with its lackluster performance this year, where the USD/JPY pair has only risen by 1%, placing it at the bottom among G10 currencies [3]. Group 2 - Factors contributing to the yen's poor performance include the Bank of Japan's ambiguous stance on interest rate hikes and the newly elected Prime Minister's support for loose monetary policies, which are expected to lead to higher spending plans [4]. - Investors' optimism for the yen in 2026 may stem from its undervalued status, reflecting ongoing low investment in Japanese assets, with a net underweight in Japanese stocks of 4% among the surveyed investors [4]. - The potential for a rebound in the USD/JPY exchange rate may be highlighted in the upcoming macroeconomic and foreign exchange report from the US Treasury, which could shift focus back to monetary policy trends [4].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.070, UK 4.397, France 3.376, Germany 2.642, Italy 3.370, Spain 3.139, Switzerland 0.140, Greece 3.251, Japan 1.684, Brazil 6.157, China 1.802, Australia 4.379, New Zealand 4.103 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.570, UK 3.723, Germany 1.995, Japan 0.933, Italy 2.174, China (1Y yield) 1.406, Australia 3.638 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.292, South Africa zar 17.084, South Korean won 1471.050, Thai baht 32.507, Malaysian ringgit 4.134 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.111, off - shore RMB 7.113, RMB central parity 7.083, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.967 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6850.920, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48254.820, NASDAQ 23406.460, Mexican stock index 63190.660, UK stock index 9911.420, French CAC 8241.240, German DAX 24381.460, Spanish stock index 16615.800, Japanese Nikkei 51063.310, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26922.730, Shanghai Composite Index 4000.140, Taiwan stock index 27947.090, South Korean stock index 4150.390, Indian stock index 8388.566, Thai stock index 1284.810, Malaysian stock index 1631.610, Australian stock index 9079.362, emerging - economy stock index 1407.730 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3532.910, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.387, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.760, US high - yield credit - bond index 2883.920, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 408.350, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1800.294 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4000.14, down 0.07%; CSI 300 closing price 4645.91, down 0.13%; SSE 50 closing price 3044.30, up 0.32%; ChiNext closing price 3122.03, down 0.39%; CSI 500 closing price 7243.25, down 0.66% [4] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.31 with a 0.04环比 change, SSE 50 is 12.08 with a 0.10环比 change, CSI 500 is 33.14 with a - 0.15环比 change, S&P 500 is 28.44 with a - 0.02环比 change, German DAX is 20.17 with a 0.24环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.55 with a 0.05环比 change, German DAX is 2.32 with a - 0.04环比 change [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 812.64, 5 - day average - 604.07; Main - board latest value - 611.85, 5 - day average - 412.64; ChiNext latest value - 166.55, 5 - day average - 149.18; CSI 300 latest value - 19.37, 5 - day average - 61.59 [4] Group 3: Transaction Data and Other Information - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19450.34, CSI 300 is 4923.09, SSE 50 is 1368.90, small - and medium - sized board is 4021.64, ChiNext is 4878.35. The环比 changes are - 485.52, 146.80, 188.29, - 38.86, - 188.60 respectively [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis - 17.91, amplitude - 0.39%; IH basis - 1.50, amplitude - 0.05%; IC basis - 88.05, amplitude - 1.22% [5] - Treasury futures trading data: T2303 closing price 108.52, up 0.04%; TF2303 closing price 105.97, up 0.03%; T2306 closing price 108.29, up 0.05%; TF2306 closing price 105.94, up 0.04% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.4662% with a - 4.00 BP daily change, R007 is 1.5050% with a 0.00 BP daily change, SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5800% with a 0.00 BP daily change [5]

Summary of Huaihe Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huaihe Energy - **Industry**: Power Generation and Coal Mining Key Financial Metrics - **Electricity Generation**: 12.375 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 9.63% year-on-year [2][3] - **Raw Coal Production**: 4.4629 million tons, an increase of 8.18% year-on-year [2][4] - **Commodity Coal Production**: 3.6106 million tons, an increase of 7.89% year-on-year [2][4] - **Electricity Trading Volume**: 9.423 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.25% year-on-year [2][4] - **Coal Trade Volume**: 26.28 million tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year [2][4] - **Revenue**: 21.3 billion CNY [3] - **Total Profit**: 928 million CNY [3] - **Net Profit**: 792 million CNY [3] - **Total Assets**: 23.847 billion CNY [3] - **Net Assets**: 12.307 billion CNY [3] - **Earnings Per Share**: 0.19 CNY [3] - **Debt Ratio**: 41.61% [3] Restructuring and Capacity Expansion - **Restructuring Status**: Application submitted to the CSRC, expected approval next week [2][5] - **Post-Reorganization Capacity**: - Controlling installed capacity will reach 11 million kW - Equity installed capacity will reach 14.8 million kW [2][6][10] - **New Projects**: - Panji Phase II and Xieqiao Power Plant have commenced operations [2][6] - Four new units expected to be operational by the end of the year [2][6] Profitability and Market Conditions - **Profit Level**: Panji Phase I profit per kWh is 0.055 CNY [7] - **Electricity Price Trends**: - Decrease in on-grid electricity price by 0.02 CNY, but cost per kWh also decreased by 0.01 CNY, maintaining overall profitability [7] - Uncertainty in 2026 electricity prices due to market pressures, but coal price recovery and national price stabilization policies provide support [7] Future Outlook - **Performance Expectations**: Optimistic outlook for future performance due to enhanced asset quality and shared cost advantages from new projects [8] - **Asset Valuation Method**: Utilizes asset-based valuation due to the capital-intensive nature of the coal and power industry [9] - **Coal Supply Assurance**: Coal supply primarily secured through company-owned mines, supplemented by long-term contracts with Huainan Mining [11] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Commitment**: Company commits to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.19 CNY per share (before tax) from 2025 to 2027 [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve officials should exercise caution regarding further interest rate cuts, as a strong economic rebound is expected in early next year, driven by factors such as the end of government shutdowns and fiscal support [1][2] - The current Federal Reserve policy rate is nearing a level that will not exert downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking overly accommodative monetary policy [1] - There is a growing economic pressure on low- and middle-income households, as many are increasingly seeking assistance from food banks and utility payment aid, highlighting the erosion of consumer purchasing power due to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Approximately 40% of the inflation above the 2% target is attributed to tariff factors, and decision-makers need to address other price-increasing elements, including persistent service sector inflation [2] - Despite a softening labor market and potential increases in unemployment due to government shutdowns, employment is expected to stabilize near full employment levels [2] - Concerns about asset valuations have been raised, with indications that housing prices appear high relative to historical standards and stock prices are also elevated, reflecting the effects of a loose financial environment [2]

Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed higher, with overall fluctuations remaining small, maintaining a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks experienced slight increases [2] - Value style continues to show strength [3] - Indices related to dividends and free cash flow have seen continuous increases [4] - Growth style opened lower but rebounded significantly in the afternoon [5] - Hong Kong stocks showed minor fluctuations, with no significant changes [6] Global Asset Fluctuations - Recent global assets have experienced some volatility, with gold retreating 10% from previous highs [7] - Cryptocurrencies have seen a 20% decline from their peaks [8] - U.S. stocks reached overvalued levels for the first time this year before correcting back to a normal high valuation [9] - Japanese stocks dropped by 3% and South Korean stocks by 5% on Wednesday [10] - Global stock markets have recently corrected by 2-4% [11] - A-shares have also shown similar volatility to global markets [12] - The CSI All Share Index fell from 5967 points to 5847 points, a decline of approximately 2-3% [13] - Hong Kong stocks have experienced greater volatility, with the Hang Seng Index correcting about 5.2% recently [16] Interest Rate Impact - The recent global asset correction is primarily attributed to events in the last couple of weeks, following a period of overall asset appreciation under the backdrop of U.S. dollar interest rate cuts [17] - Non-U.S. stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies have all shown considerable gains in the first three quarters of the year [18] - The relationship between interest rates and asset values is likened to gravity's effect on objects [19] - A decrease in U.S. interest rates is beneficial for asset valuation [20] Federal Reserve Signals - Following interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and October, the market initially expected further cuts in December [21] - Recent signals from the Federal Reserve indicate that a December rate cut is "far from" a certainty [22] - This has led to a significant reduction in market expectations for a December rate cut [23] - The extent of volatility is also related to the previous valuations of assets [24] - For instance, gold was previously overvalued, leading to a 10% correction, while the A-share market's high-tech board corrected by approximately 12% [26] Long-term Outlook - There is no need for excessive concern regarding these fluctuations, as even in previous bull markets, there have been multiple corrections exceeding 10% [28] - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have risen by 40-50% since reaching a rating of 5.9 stars [29] - The recent market index fluctuations have only been around 2-3%, which can be considered mere oscillations [31] - A-shares have shown relatively stable fluctuations amid global asset volatility [32] - In the long term, U.S. interest rates are expected to gradually decrease due to the substantial debt burden of approximately $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [34] - The strategy to alleviate this burden is straightforward: lower interest rates to refinance existing debt [35] - It is anticipated that U.S. interest rates will eventually return to historical averages of 2-3%, although the timing may vary from a few months to over half a year [36] - Delaying interest rate cuts could extend the current market rally [39] - Caution is advised for overvalued assets, while undervalued and fundamentally sound assets are expected to perform well in the future [40]

Core Viewpoint - The new stock market is very active this year, reflecting investors' willingness to take risks and an overall optimistic investment environment, although a potential market correction of 10% to 15% may occur due to high asset prices rather than a macroeconomic downturn [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current investment environment is optimistic, with active participation in the new stock market [1] - A potential market correction of 10% to 15% is anticipated, driven by high asset prices rather than a significant economic decline [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Factors - Easing financial regulations is beneficial for corporate profit growth, but both equity and debt markets are considered expensive [1] - Precious metals and cryptocurrency markets exhibit speculative behavior, posing short-term valuation challenges [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite risks from policy missteps and geopolitical uncertainties, systemic risks may have decreased compared to earlier in the year [1] - The focus for the upcoming year will shift back to fundamentals, particularly corporate earnings, as the market outlook evolves [1] Group 4: Sector Performance - The market is expected to show differentiation, with companies that can generate good returns without significant investment in artificial intelligence likely to perform well [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by private enterprises in issuing public REITs, highlighting the misconception that regulatory hurdles are the main barrier, while the real issue lies in the stringent asset valuation requirements imposed by these enterprises [2][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies encourage private enterprises to issue REITs, and local governments often support promising private companies [2]. - The regulatory requirement for "net cash recovery" differs from the valuation needs of private enterprises, which must cover existing debts and provide surplus cash [4]. Group 2: Asset Valuation Challenges - Private enterprises have a "hard requirement" for asset valuation that is more stringent than the standards set for public offerings, often prioritizing immediate cash returns over long-term strategic benefits [2][4]. - For a project with existing bank loans of 1 billion, the asset valuation must exceed 1.65 billion to cover debts and provide cash returns, illustrating the high valuation pressure [4]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - A project with a net operating income (NOI) of 60 million and a loan interest of 50 million results in a capitalization rate of only 3.6%, which is generally not acceptable to investors or regulators [5][6]. Group 4: Potential Solutions - Suggestions for improving the situation include relaxing the self-holding ratio requirements, allowing for the pledge of self-held shares, and adjusting key valuation parameters dynamically based on market conditions [7][8]. - Shortening the approval cycle for public REITs could help private enterprises respond more quickly to urgent financial needs, as the current process can take up to two years [9]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Private enterprises, due to their survival and competitive pressures, are more focused on asset management and market trends, making them theoretically suitable for operating REIT assets [10]. - The current financial strain on private enterprises, coupled with unfavorable market conditions, leads to their high asset valuation demands, which could be alleviated through adjustments in mechanisms and approval processes [10].