Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding monetary policy have become more pronounced, highlighting the complexities faced by decision-makers amid concerns over tariffs, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Disagreements - The FOMC's meeting minutes revealed that two officials voted against maintaining the current interest rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to mitigate potential labor market deterioration [4]. - Most officials believe that the risks of rising inflation outweigh the risks of declining employment, indicating a split in perspectives on economic conditions [4][5]. Inflation Risks - Officials expressed concerns about the uncertain impacts of tariff policies on inflation and the potential instability of inflation expectations [6]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with recent increases in goods price inflation attributed to tariffs [7]. Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook remains high, with officials emphasizing the dual mandate of full employment and price stability facing significant risks [5][6]. - Many officials expect inflation to rise in the short term, influenced by the timing and magnitude of tariff increases implemented by the previous administration [7]. Financial Stability Concerns - The minutes highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, particularly high asset valuations, which have raised concerns among officials [10]. - Recent sell-offs in high-valuation tech stocks have been noted, with market participants expressing caution regarding the sustainability of these valuations [10]. Stablecoin Implications - Officials discussed the potential rise of stablecoins following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which could enhance payment system efficiency but also raise concerns about their impact on the financial system and monetary policy [11]. - The need for close monitoring of the assets backing stablecoins was emphasized, given their potential influence on the banking system and financial stability [11].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the primary risks facing the U.S. market and economy are shifting from private sector financial excesses to escalating public sector debt issues and high asset valuations [1][2]. Fiscal Sustainability - The report highlights that the greatest long-term risk for the U.S. is fiscal sustainability, with concerns that rising national debt and interest payments could necessitate sustained large fiscal surpluses, which are politically challenging [2]. - Any resulting upward pressure on interest rates could tighten the broader financial environment and hinder economic growth, especially given the already high asset valuations [2]. Asset Valuation Concerns - Despite high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. stock market valuations remain at their highest levels since the late 1990s, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.4, significantly above the historical average of 15.9 since 1990 [2]. - The speculative trading index from Goldman Sachs indicates heightened market risk, with phenomena like "Meme stocks" reflecting increased market risk appetite [2]. Real Estate Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs expresses limited concern regarding high real estate prices, attributing them to a persistent supply-demand imbalance rather than loose lending standards or speculative buying [3][4]. - The shortage of single-family homes is expected to continue, limiting the risk of significant price declines [4]. Household Debt Insights - The report addresses two main concerns regarding household debt: low savings rates are fundamentally linked to household wealth levels, and rising consumer credit default rates reflect past risky lending practices rather than a general deterioration in household financial health [5]. - Current default rates are stabilizing, indicating manageable household debt levels [5]. Corporate Debt Overview - Although corporate interest expenses have risen significantly in recent years, the consequences appear limited at this time [6]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that refinancing maturing debt will only increase interest expenses by 3% over the next two years, a significant decrease from the previously estimated 7% for 2023, due to much of the debt being refinanced in a higher interest rate environment [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies' 10 - year treasuries showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year treasury yield was 4.390 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of - 0.008, a one - week change of - 0.028, a one - month change of 0.111, and a one - year change of 0.231 [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year treasury yield was 3.880 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.050, a one - week change of 0.000, a one - month change of 0.020, and a one - year change of - 0.560 [2]. - **Dollar - to - Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates**: The dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.564 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.79%, a one - week change of - 0.27%, a one - month change of 1.41%, and a one - year change of 1.49% [2]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6388.640 on 2025/07/25, with a latest change of 0.40%, a one - week change of 1.46%, a one - month change of 3.49%, and a one - year change of 14.32% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.25%, a one - week change of 0.56%, a one - month change of 0.36%, and a one - year change of 4.76% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share index closed at 3593.66 with a decline of 0.33%. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.10 with a环比 change of 0.10 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 933.40, and the 5 - day average was - 399.85 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17873.37, with a环比 change of - 573.69 [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was - 11.16, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.27% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - The T00 treasury futures closed at 108.180 with a decline of 0.28%. The R001 capital interest rate was 1.5522% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP [5]

Report Overview - The report provides an overview of the global asset market performance on June 10, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Bond Yields**: Yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.472%, with a latest change of -0.004, a one - week change of 0.016, a one - month change of -0.001, and a one - year change of -0.075. Other economies like the UK, France, and Germany also had their respective yield figures and changes [3]. - **2 - year Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year bond yield was 4.040 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.120, a one - week change of 0.120, a one - month change of 0.040, and a one - year change of -0.900. Different economies had different trends in their 2 - year bond yields [3]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies**: Against the Brazilian real, the rate was 5.574 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of -1.13%, a one - month change of -1.78%. For other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., there were also corresponding rates and changes [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was 7.188, the off - shore RMB was 7.189, the mid - price was 7.184, and the 12 - month NDF was 7.013 on June 10, 2025, with different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different closing prices, latest changes, one - week changes, one - month changes, and one - year changes on June 10, 2025. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6038.810 with a latest change of 0.55% [3]. - **Emerging Economies**: Stock indices of emerging economies like the Russian index, Hang Seng Index, and上证综指 also showed various performance trends on June 10, 2025 [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices including emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, US high - yield, and euro - zone high - yield had their respective closing prices and changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods on June 10, 2025 [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3384.82 with a decline of 0.44%. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext also had their closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.53 with a环比 change of -0.04. Different indices had different valuation and change figures [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was -0.58 with a环比 change of -0.02. Different indices had different risk premium and change trends [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was -1243.05, and different market segments had different fund flow data [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14153.59, and different indices had different trading volume and change figures [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was -24.47 with a premium/discount rate of -0.63% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures such as T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their respective closing prices and percentage changes on June 10, 2025 [6]. - The money market had different interest rates and daily changes, such as the R001 rate at 1.4107% with a daily change of -13.00 BP [6].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that asset valuations do not align with the "very high" level of uncertainty currently present in the market [1] Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, which is not reflected in asset valuations [1] - De Guindos emphasized the need for caution among investors due to the mismatch between asset prices and economic conditions [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring the situation as it could impact monetary policy decisions in the future [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced significant volatility this week, with fluctuations of nearly $100 during trading sessions, driven by heightened risk aversion amid trade tensions, pushing prices above $3500 at one point [1] - As of Friday, April 25, gold closed at $3318.62 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.93% [1] - The U.S. dollar faced pressure, dropping to a new low of 97.92, following criticism from Trump towards Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but later rebounded above 99, struggling to break the 100 mark [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve indicated that commercial real estate prices, a concern post-COVID-19, are showing signs of stabilization despite low liquidity in the stock and bond markets in early April [2] - The U.S. banking system remains robust and resilient, with strong capital adequacy ratios across institutions, although there is an increase in credit commitments to less-regulated non-bank entities [2] - The Federal Reserve warned that hedge fund leverage, particularly among large institutions, has reached or is near historical highs, but noted a decrease in leverage as funds began to unwind positions in early April [2]