事件 新凤鸣于2025 年10 月30 日发布2025 年第三季度报告，2025 年第三季度公司实现营业收入515.42 亿 元，同比增加4.8%；实现归母净利润8.69 亿元，同比增加16.6%。其中，2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 180.51 亿元，同比增加0.7%，环比减少4.7%；实现归母净利润1.61 亿元，同比增加14.0%。 涤纶长丝消费需求持续修复，行业景气预期回升2025 年前三季度涤纶长丝累计表观消费量为2672 万 吨，同比增加6.6%，涤纶长丝消费需求持续修复。涤纶长丝下游织机开工率自8 月初以来有所提升，截 至2025年10 月30 日织机开工率达69.0%，受"金九银十"传统旺季影响，涤纶长丝消费需求持续改善，行 业景气预期回升。 开工率高位运行，库存保持合理区间 涤纶长丝盈利能力或可实现稳步修复 2025Q3 涤纶长丝盈利能力维持稳定，2025Q3 POY/DTY/FDY-PTA/MEG 价差分别为1077 元/2153 元/1314 元/吨，分别同比收窄7.5%/收窄13.61%/收窄19.28%，如果消费需求改善，有望拉阔涤纶长丝价 差，公司盈利能力或进一步改善。 盈利预测 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in 2024, with a revenue increase of 9.1% year-on-year to 67.09 billion yuan and a slight net profit increase of 1.3% to 1.1 billion yuan [1][2]. - The report highlights that the petrochemical sector has negatively impacted short-term performance, but overall profitability remains stable [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the long filament industry, supported by its integrated PTA-polyester supply chain [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 67.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.1%. The net profit is expected to be 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.3% [1][2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.72 yuan for 2024, with expectations of growth to 0.96 yuan in 2025 and 1.49 yuan by 2027 [1][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is expected to slightly decrease to 6.4% in 2024 but is projected to improve to 10.3% by 2027 [1][13]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly by 85.57% year-on-year to 6.79 billion yuan in 2024, driven by higher cash receipts from sales [3]. Industry Overview - The polyester filament industry is currently facing price pressures, but the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in industry conditions [10][11]. - The report notes that the overall polyester industry in China is experiencing good growth, with exports expected to rise by 15% in 2024 [11]. - The company has a strong market position, with a domestic market share exceeding 12% in polyester filament production, and is the largest producer of polyester short fibers in China [12].