85%。盘面来看，近期淀粉期价略有回落，总体仍维持震荡，短期观望。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 玉米系产业日报 2026-02-09 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2265 | -9 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 2538 | -2 | | | 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | -27 | 吨) -6 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) | -58 | -4 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 440400 | -64526 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 112232 | -14650 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -130650 | -10549 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -28 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For corn: The U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions and a downward - adjusted 2025/26 carry - over stock forecast support the price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, with growers reluctant to sell and most grain in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have some inventory, while deep - processing enterprises' inventory is low year - on - year. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the downstream product prices are weak, so the corn futures price is currently volatile and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For corn starch: With the increase in the new - season corn supply, the industry operation is good but there is still supply - side pressure. As of December 31, the national corn starch enterprise inventory increased. However, due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers repurchase corn starch, increasing its demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting is advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2224 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. - Corn futures trading volume (active contract) is 1001343 lots, down 7918 lots; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract) is 196808 lots, up 1319 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price is 437 cents/bushel, down 4 cents; CBOT corn total trading volume (weekly) is 1516552 contracts, down 6106 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2356.47 yuan/ton, up 0.39 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream - The predicted annual corn output in the U.S. is 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2]. Industry - Corn inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons, up 15.6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.3 tons, up 2.1 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 tons, up 20.9 tons; the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.4%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.49%, up 0.2% [2]. Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that as of December 30, 84.2% of the expected 2025/26 corn planting area in Argentina was sown, with 83.1% of the sown corn rated as good or excellent [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily, dated October 29, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - The national autumn grain harvest in major producing areas is over 85%. The corn market harvest is nearing completion, but selling pressure remains high, pressuring prices. Futures prices are in a post - bottoming - out and retracement phase, while spot prices are in a post - stop - falling and stabilizing and fluctuating process [2] - On Tuesday, the corn futures market showed a narrow - range and slightly upward trend, supported by the rise in the outer market and the strength of soybeans. The main 01 contract rose 0.28% to close at 2123 yuan, with decreased trading volume and a slight increase in open interest. The corn starch futures market was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 2424 yuan [2] Group 3: Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - State reserve purchase points in the Northeast region are supporting prices, limiting downward movement [6] - The shortage of high - quality corn in North China will become more apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] - After the peak of harvest and selling pressure, it will become more dispersed, and price pressure is expected to gradually ease [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level [3] - Short - term supply pressure remains high, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] Group 4: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.75% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.40% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - For corn, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2140 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2270 yuan (down 20 yuan), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis is 17 yuan (down 21 yuan) [3] - For corn starch, the price in Shandong is 2750 yuan (down 10 yuan), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The Shandong main - continuous basis is 326 yuan (down 9 yuan) [3] Futures Price - From October 27 to 28, 2025, corn futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07 showed price increases, with increases ranging from 0.49% - 0.59%. Corn starch futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09 showed price decreases, with decreases ranging from 0.04% - 0.25%. The wheat average price increased by 0.04% [4][7] Group 6: International Market Data - For US corn - related prices, the CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 431.75, up 3.75 (0.88%); the COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1093.5, up 10 (0.92%); the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 530.25, up 4.25 (0.81%). The US Gulf完税 price is 2141.89, up 13.84 (0.65%), with an import profit of 148.11; the US West完税 price is 2019.92, up 14.03 (0.7%), with an import profit of 270.08 [34]