Group 1: Macro Research - The optimal model predicts that the ten-year government bond yield will decrease by approximately 3 basis points from the end of January 2026 to the end of February 2026, and by about 6 basis points from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Wealth Management Outlook - In 2025, the total market wealth management scale is estimated to grow by around 3.5 trillion to approximately 33-34 trillion, driven by factors such as deposit disintermediation, valuation adjustments, and enhanced returns from rights expansion [6]. - The report analyzes potential changes in the operational logic of wealth management businesses for 2026 through nine key questions across five dimensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the development and evaluation of a hybrid neural network model for predicting the long-term trends of the ten-year government bond yield, utilizing various macroeconomic, monetary policy, and market sentiment indicators to enhance predictive performance [3][5]. Group 1: Hybrid Neural Network Model - A hybrid neural network model integrates multiple neural network architectures to improve learning capabilities and performance, commonly combining CNN, GRU, LSTM, and attention mechanisms [4]. - CNN captures short-term local features, while GRU and LSTM are adept at learning long-term trends, and the attention mechanism helps the model focus on significant time points [4]. Group 2: Research Design - The research compares single neural network models with hybrid models, training multiple networks to assess their predictive performance on the ten-year government bond yield [5]. - Innovations include multi-dimensional input and output for time series prediction, the introduction of hybrid models, and a focus on medium to long-term yield trends rather than short-term fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Research Conclusions - The single GRU model demonstrated the best overall predictive performance [6]. - The accuracy of the optimal model in predicting the direction of yield changes improves with longer prediction time spans [6]. - The optimal model predicts a decline of approximately 3 basis points (BP) in the ten-year government bond yield from the end of January 2026 to the end of February 2026, and a decline of about 6 BP from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026 [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the prediction of medium to long-term government bond yields using a mixed neural network model that incorporates macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, and market sentiment [5] - The optimal model predicts that the ten-year government bond yield will decrease by approximately 3 basis points (BP) from the end of January 2026 to the end of February 2026, and by about 6 BP from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026 [5] Group 2 - In the banking sector, the total market wealth management scale is expected to grow by around 3.5 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 33-34 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by factors such as deposit disintermediation and the release of floating profits [5] Group 3 - In the real estate market, the new housing transaction area in 30 core cities is projected to decline by 19% year-on-year in 2025, while the average transaction price is expected to increase by 0.7% year-on-year [6] - The average price of second-hand houses in key cities for 2025 is reported as follows: Beijing at 28,194 yuan per square meter (up 2.6% year-on-year), Shanghai at 36,962 yuan per square meter (down 4.4%), Guangzhou at 25,832 yuan per square meter (down 7.1%), and Shenzhen at 56,703 yuan per square meter (down 1.6%) [6]