Rick Santelli. Rick, kind of like the stock market, the bond market's probably used to it at this point, but at what point does it start to matter. You know, I can't even guess at what point it starts to matter, but as previous guests have been saying all morning, uh, pretty much we've seen this all before.It is a kabuki dance to some extent, but of course, if it lasts a a certain amount of time, and I'm not sure what that timeline is, the markets might pay some attention. But today they paid a whole lot of ...

宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Balance - By Q3 2025, the yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to rise to approximately 1.85%, indicating a need for a new balance between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability[2] - The central bank's cautious strategy aims to keep liquidity reasonably ample while allowing yields to reflect supply and demand dynamics[4] - The shift in fiscal policy towards long-cycle sectors necessitates a matching interest rate environment[4] Impact of New Economic Sectors - Capital-intensive industries like artificial intelligence are driving up funding costs while maintaining a strong growth outlook, leading to higher interest rate tolerance[6] - The demand for long-term capital in new economic sectors significantly exceeds that of traditional manufacturing, pushing the demand curve for funds to the right[6] - Despite rising costs, high valuations in AI-related stocks persist due to strong growth narratives, creating a potential financial bubble[7] Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics - The expansionary fiscal policy is a key factor influencing the yield on 10-year government bonds, with a high fiscal deficit rate and substantial local government bond issuance[7] - The relationship between government bond issuance and yields is positive; increased issuance without corresponding demand leads to rising yields[7] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards technology R&D and human capital investment, which have longer and more uncertain economic returns[8] Future Outlook - The balance of monetary policy will depend on the success of fiscal measures in expanding employment and the rapid growth of new economic sectors[8] - The expectation is for structural monetary policy to remain dominant, with no significant changes to the overall monetary supply anticipated[8]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating a recovery in economic growth[10] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.71, significantly above historical averages, suggesting a notable rebound in domestic economic momentum[10] - Key sectors such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed improvement this week, with all three areas performing well[10] Price Trends - Food prices decreased this week, while non-food prices remained stable; September CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3%[12] - The forecast for September PPI indicates a month-on-month decline of about -0.1%, with a year-on-year increase expected to reach -2.4% due to a low base effect[12] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions suggest a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of September 26, 2025[10] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26 is 2.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,193.04[19]

Group 1 - The report identifies that the stock-bond seesaw effect is more common than both stocks and bonds being strong or weak simultaneously, with a higher probability of returning to the seesaw state after periods of dual strength or weakness [3][8]. - Growth expectations drive the stock-bond seesaw, while liquidity expectations can terminate it. Weak growth expectations lead to weak stocks and strong bonds, while strong growth expectations can result in strong stocks and weak bonds [3][8]. - A four-quadrant framework based on growth and interest rate expectations can be constructed to illustrate the relative relationship between stocks and bonds, showing how these expectations influence market dynamics [3][8]. Group 2 - The report suggests that when the stock-bond seesaw is present, there are strong price signals within equity sectors, allowing for effective industry strategies to be constructed [3][8]. - Current liquidity expectations are stable, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market, and the report continues to recommend a dynamic all-weather strategy under the seesaw market conditions [3][8]. - Historical data shows that fast bull markets are typically accompanied by rising equity volatility, while the current market exhibits stable equity volatility, supporting the slow bull market outlook [3][8]. Group 3 - The report outlines various scenarios following the stock-bond seesaw, including transitions from strong stocks and weak bonds to dual strength, and from weak stocks and strong bonds to dual weakness [21][37]. - The transition from strong stocks and weak bonds to weak stocks and strong bonds is often accompanied by a decline in growth expectations, while the reverse transition typically requires an increase in growth expectations [26][45]. - The report emphasizes that the core factors determining market direction after the seesaw are liquidity expectations and growth expectations, which can lead to different outcomes based on their movements [36][45].

Group 1 - The recent stock market has experienced increased volatility, while the bond market shows signs of improvement but remains oscillatory. The optimistic expectation for the resumption of government bond trading operations has contributed to this recovery, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping below 1.75% [2][5] - The market style has slightly shifted towards small-cap stocks, with growth styles prevailing. The volatility of market styles has increased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has decreased [7][8] - In the commodity market, the strength of the non-ferrous and energy chemical sectors has increased, while the trend strength of other sectors remains stable. The basis momentum across all sectors has decreased [3][20][23] Group 2 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index remains stable, while the implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index has begun to decline. The market experienced a brief pullback in early September, particularly affecting small-cap stocks, but current sentiment has eased [28] - The convertible bond market showed a relatively flat performance, with the index primarily oscillating. The premium rate for convertible bonds remains stable, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds has not changed significantly [30]

三季度以来，A股持续走高，但在"股债跷跷板"效应等其他因素影响下，债市持续调整。与此同时，近 一个月的纯债基金业绩也难言乐观，有近七成产品的收益率告负，若拉长时间至年内来看，也有超两成 纯债基金的收益率下跌。有业内人士认为，债券市场后续有望迎来新一波反弹行情。不过，也有观点指 出，债市调整的终点或难以精确判断，但若后续出现修复行情，债券收益率可能也不太会出现快速的报 复性反弹。 交易行情数据显示，三季度以来，截至9月15日收盘，上证指数已累计上涨12.08%，深证成指、创业板 指也分别涨24.28%、42.41%。在股市走高的背景下，债市回调却相对明显。中国货币网数据显示，三 季度以来，十年期国债收益率震荡上行，截至9月15日的十年期国债收益率为1.8615%，对比6月30日的 1.6553%上行超20bp。 展望后续债市，银华基金表示，若美联储于9月降息，中美利差预计收窄，这将缓解人民币汇率的贬值 压力，也为我国人民银行实施更为宽松的货币政策创造有利条件。回顾2024年9月，美联储降息50个基 点后，我国人民银行迅速跟进降准降息，释放了明确的宽松信号。若此次人民银行同步下调政策利率， 市场利率有望进一步走低 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the Chinese credit market and its implications for the economy, particularly in relation to the banking sector and real estate market [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Declining Credit Demand**: China's credit demand has shifted from insufficient supply to low demand, with new loans expected to be less than 17 trillion yuan in 2025, down from 23 trillion yuan in 2022, indicating a decline in both credit growth and volume, posing challenges to economic growth [1][3]. - **Weak Personal Loans**: In August, personal loans increased by only 30.3 billion yuan, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market, with second-hand home prices in Beijing dropping nearly 10% over the past quarter [1][5]. - **Manufacturing Sector Struggles**: The manufacturing industry faces overcapacity, leading to weak credit demand from enterprises. The gap between corporate deposits and loans has widened to over 60 trillion yuan, indicating that state-owned enterprises are borrowing heavily while market-oriented firms show insufficient financing needs [1][6]. - **Banking Sector Manipulations**: Banks are manipulating credit data through bill discounting and short-term loans to meet scale assessments, but these measures do not fundamentally address the underlying issue of weak credit demand [1][7]. - **Deleveraging Trends**: There is a clear trend of households actively deleveraging, with increased savings and reduced borrowing. The ratio of personal loans to deposits has significantly decreased, indicating low consumer willingness to spend [1][8][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Loan Projections**: The anticipated decline in new loans and social financing growth rates, projected to fall from 9.0% to around 8.0% by year-end, reflects weak investment demand and ongoing challenges in the real estate and manufacturing sectors [3][10]. - **Investment Outlook**: The outlook for long-term bonds remains positive, with a target yield of around 1.75% for ten-year government bonds, suggesting potential value for investors [3][12][18]. - **Market Sentiment**: Institutional attitudes towards ultra-long credit bonds are cautious, with a noted decline in net purchases by insurance and wealth management sectors, although there is still a strategy to accumulate on dips [17][19]. - **Economic Predictions**: The overall trend for the bond market in 2025 is expected to be volatile, with no clear directional movement, necessitating a careful approach to investment strategies [20][21]. Conclusion - The records highlight significant challenges in the Chinese credit market, with declining demand impacting both personal and corporate borrowing. The banking sector's response through data manipulation and the ongoing trend of deleveraging among households are critical factors to monitor. The investment outlook for bonds remains cautiously optimistic, with specific strategies recommended for conservative investors.

Key Events Review - On September 3, a grand ceremony was held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, featuring a large military parade at Tiananmen Square [2] - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised and released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Expenses for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds," which includes measures to lower subscription fees, purchase fees, and sales service fee rates, marking the implementation of the third phase of public fund sales fee reform. The estimated annual reduction in sales expenses is approximately 30 billion yuan based on average data from the past three years [2] - On September 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the adjusted non-farm employment population for August increased by 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate was recorded at 4.3%, meeting market expectations and indicating a continuous cooling in the labor market, which strengthens the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [2] Weekly Market Review - The stock market has experienced increased volatility recently, while the bond market has shown some improvement but remains volatile. Due to short-term adjustments in the stock market, combined with a meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, which mentioned "central bank bond trading operations" and "coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies," there is an optimistic expectation for the resumption of bond trading operations, leading to a recovery in the bond market. The yield on ten-year government bonds briefly fell below 1.75%. However, due to weak momentum for further buying in the bond market, it is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the ten-year government bond yield not effectively breaking through 1.75% [5]