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华源证券:量贩龙头充分享受下沉市场升级+渠道效率提升红利 渠道未来仍有较大成长空间
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 08:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bulk snack retail model, characterized by "vertical + thousands of stores" hard discount strategies, is fundamentally a business driven by traffic growth, benefiting from market upgrades and improved channel efficiency [1] - The total number of stores in the industry has rapidly expanded from 13,000 in January 2022 to over 40,000 currently, leading to an increase in the share of specialty store channels from 7.6% in 2019 to 11.2% in 2024, with the market size of the leisure food and beverage sector projected to reach 3.7 trillion [1] - The bulk retail format shows strong competitiveness in terms of payback period and capital efficiency compared to other retail formats, with a theoretical potential for approximately 86,000 stores nationwide based on various supply and demand parameters [1] Group 2 - The transition from vertical bulk retail to horizontal product expansion is seen as a challenging yet correct strategy, with discount supermarkets optimizing single-store models and expanding store space through refined operations and supply chain efficiencies [2] - The competitive landscape is becoming clearer with leading players in the bulk retail sector focusing on mergers and acquisitions, with distinct advantages in market distribution and operational efficiency between major players [3] - The profitability of leading bulk retailers is expected to improve in the short term due to reduced subsidies and scale efficiencies, while the development of private label brands is crucial for long-term growth and valuation enhancement [4]