Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a wave of lock-up expirations, with a peak in September, while core sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare will see their peak expirations in March and April [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The report anticipates that the lock-up expirations will not lead to a significant market downturn, provided that the upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market continues and liquidity remains ample [1] - However, stocks with a high lock-up ratio may face price pressure before and after the expiration [1] Group 2: Stock Selection - The company has identified 60 stocks that may face substantial selling pressure in the next 12 months due to the upcoming lock-up expirations [1] - For fundamentally strong companies, irrational declines triggered by lock-up expirations may present medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Lock-up Scale - It is estimated that approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares will be unlocked in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, with monthly unlock amounts exceeding HKD 100 billion for six months [1] - September is highlighted as a critical time for the market, with an expected unlock of HKD 530.89 billion (totaling 44.62 billion shares), accounting for 32.6% of the annual total and equivalent to 31% of the total market capitalization of related companies and 113% of the free float market capitalization [1] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The Gold and Precious Metals sector has the highest unlock scale and a significant proportion of circulating shares, while the core sectors of Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare will see their unlock peaks in March and April, warranting attention to their supply pressure [1]

Group 1 - The report focuses on the trends of Hong Kong stock IPOs and lock-up expirations in 2026, analyzing their impact on market performance and sector volatility [1][18] - In 2025, Hong Kong's IPO market performed strongly with 117 IPOs raising HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally, benefiting from the HKEX's Chapter 18A and 18C policies [1][18] - As of January 10, 2026, there are 300 companies queued for IPOs, primarily in technology and healthcare sectors, with expectations that the 2026 IPO fundraising will exceed HKD 300 billion [1][18] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that peaks in IPOs and fundraising do not reverse the trend of the Hong Kong stock market, as seen in previous bull markets during 2010 and 2014-2015 [2][25] - The real market impact is often felt six months post-IPO due to the lock-up expiration of cornerstone investors, which historically coincides with market downturns, although exceptions occurred in 2025 [2][8] - Significant lock-up expirations are expected in March and September 2026, with over HKD 30 billion in large companies' shares set to be released, and September's expirations could reach approximately HKD 400 billion [2][34] Group 3 - Recent capital flow data shows a decrease in northbound trading volume while southbound trading has turned net inflow, with foreign investments focusing on companies like Xiaomi and Kuaishou [3] - The trend indicates a shift in foreign capital from A-shares to H-shares, with notable inflows into developed European markets and outflows from the US and Japanese markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - CATL's H-shares experienced a significant decline, with a maximum drop of over 8% during trading, while its A-shares only fell by about 3%, indicating a disparity in performance between the two markets [1][3]. Group 1: H-share Performance - Since October 3, CATL's H-shares have dropped from a high of 614 HKD to a current low of 467.2 HKD, marking a cumulative decline of over 23% [1][3]. - The H-share IPO price was 263 HKD, and even at the lowest price today, cornerstone investors have made a profit of 77% within six months [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The disparity in performance is attributed to the unlocking of shares for cornerstone investors, which occurred today, six months post-IPO [3]. - CATL's H-shares are considered one of the most successful IPOs in the Hong Kong market this year, enhancing the overall attractiveness of the market [6]. Group 3: Upcoming Unlocking Events - The Hong Kong market is expected to face a "unlocking wave" in the coming month, with several companies, including Sanhua Intelligent Control and Hengrui Medicine, having their cornerstone shares unlocked on November 23 [6][7]. - Other companies to watch for unlocking include Jihong Co. and Peig Biological Medicine on November 27, and Chow Tai Fook and Yaojie Ankang in December, with significant profits for cornerstone investors in these cases as well [7].