Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a wave of lock-up expirations, with a peak in September, while core sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare will see their peak expirations in March and April [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The report anticipates that the lock-up expirations will not lead to a significant market downturn, provided that the upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market continues and liquidity remains ample [1] - However, stocks with a high lock-up ratio may face price pressure before and after the expiration [1] Group 2: Stock Selection - The company has identified 60 stocks that may face substantial selling pressure in the next 12 months due to the upcoming lock-up expirations [1] - For fundamentally strong companies, irrational declines triggered by lock-up expirations may present medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Lock-up Scale - It is estimated that approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares will be unlocked in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, with monthly unlock amounts exceeding HKD 100 billion for six months [1] - September is highlighted as a critical time for the market, with an expected unlock of HKD 530.89 billion (totaling 44.62 billion shares), accounting for 32.6% of the annual total and equivalent to 31% of the total market capitalization of related companies and 113% of the free float market capitalization [1] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The Gold and Precious Metals sector has the highest unlock scale and a significant proportion of circulating shares, while the core sectors of Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare will see their unlock peaks in March and April, warranting attention to their supply pressure [1]

Group 1 - The report focuses on the trends of Hong Kong stock IPOs and lock-up expirations in 2026, analyzing their impact on market performance and sector volatility [1][18] - In 2025, Hong Kong's IPO market performed strongly with 117 IPOs raising HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally, benefiting from the HKEX's Chapter 18A and 18C policies [1][18] - As of January 10, 2026, there are 300 companies queued for IPOs, primarily in technology and healthcare sectors, with expectations that the 2026 IPO fundraising will exceed HKD 300 billion [1][18] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that peaks in IPOs and fundraising do not reverse the trend of the Hong Kong stock market, as seen in previous bull markets during 2010 and 2014-2015 [2][25] - The real market impact is often felt six months post-IPO due to the lock-up expiration of cornerstone investors, which historically coincides with market downturns, although exceptions occurred in 2025 [2][8] - Significant lock-up expirations are expected in March and September 2026, with over HKD 30 billion in large companies' shares set to be released, and September's expirations could reach approximately HKD 400 billion [2][34] Group 3 - Recent capital flow data shows a decrease in northbound trading volume while southbound trading has turned net inflow, with foreign investments focusing on companies like Xiaomi and Kuaishou [3] - The trend indicates a shift in foreign capital from A-shares to H-shares, with notable inflows into developed European markets and outflows from the US and Japanese markets [3]

今天，宁德时代H股（HK03750）盘中下跌，最大跌幅一度超过了8%。 值得注意的是，宁德时代A股（SZ300750）今天跌得并不算多，跌幅在3%左右。 同一家公司，按理说A股和H股的涨跌应该大致差不多。但细心的投资者会发现，近一段时间，宁德时代的H股比A股表现差多了。10月3日以来，宁德时代 H股从高点614港元跌到今天，累计最大跌幅超过23%，而A股基本上还保持在高位震荡。 出现如此大的反差，最重要的原因是，宁德时代有大量H股IPO基石投资者锁定股，正好在今天，也就是其H股上市半年后解禁流通。 宁德时代H股的招股价是263港元，即便是按照今天盘中最低价467.2港元计算，基石投资者也只用了半年时间就赚了77%。毫无疑问，宁德时代H股是今年 港股市场最成功的IPO案例，不论是募集资金总额，还是其上市后的表现，还有宁德时代本身的基本面，都极大提升了整个港股市场的吸引力。有分析认 为，不久之后的12月，宁德时代H股可能会被纳入恒生科技指数成分股，从而可能触发被动资金流入。但基石投资者丰厚的收益，再加上相对A股的明显溢 价，其H股面临的短期抛压还是非常明显。 今年是港股IPO的"大年"，不仅新上市公司数量多，而且 ...