Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of high subscription rates for IPOs in the Hong Kong market, exemplified by the case of Saisir, which experienced a significant drop in share price on its first trading day despite a 133 times oversubscription, indicating a disconnect between market enthusiasm and actual stock performance [3][4][8]. Group 1: IPO Performance - Saisir's stock opened down 1.98% on its first day and hit a low of 118 HKD, ultimately closing at 131.5 HKD, equal to its issue price [3][7]. - In the first three quarters of the year, 98% of new Hong Kong IPOs were oversubscribed, but over 20% of these stocks experienced a drop on their first trading day [3][10]. - The overall IPO market in Hong Kong raised 182.45 billion HKD in the first three quarters, with 68 new stocks listed [10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - High subscription rates reflect ample market liquidity and speculative sentiment, but do not necessarily correlate with the intrinsic value of the companies [4][8]. - Investors are increasingly facing uncertainty, as many are experiencing losses despite the high demand for new shares [11][12]. - The phenomenon of "leveraged IPO investing" is contributing to investor losses, as individuals incur costs regardless of whether they receive shares [13]. Group 3: Company-Specific Concerns - Saisir's revenue structure is heavily reliant on a single brand, with the "Wen Jie" series accounting for over 90% of total revenue, raising concerns about its business model [8]. - The company's financial performance showed a revenue of 110.53 billion CNY in the first three quarters, with a net profit increase of 31.56% to 5.31 billion CNY [7]. Group 4: Historical Context - The current IPO failure rate is at a historical low, with only 24% of new stocks experiencing a drop on their first day, the lowest since 2017 [13]. - Despite the high subscription rates, the market has seen a significant number of stocks drop below their issue price within 20 trading days [12][13].