每经AI快讯，8月12日，澳洲联储将官方现金利率下调25基点至3.60%，符合市场预期。 ...

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in three and a half years in June, reaching 4.3%, up from 4.1% in May, indicating a significant shift in the labor market [1] - The net employment change in June was an increase of only 2,000 jobs, which fell short of market expectations of a 20,000 increase, following a decrease of 1,100 jobs in May [1] - Full-time employment saw a notable decline, with a loss of 38,200 positions in June, contributing to the overall rise in the unemployment rate [1] Employment Data - The labor force participation rate increased to 67.1%, suggesting a slight uptick in the number of individuals actively seeking work [1] - After a significant rise in working hours in May, there was a decrease of 0.9% in June, indicating potential volatility in labor demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to wait for the second quarter CPI data before making any further interest rate cuts, despite market expectations for a third cut this year [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Expectations** - The market anticipates that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year on Tuesday, but there are calls for a more cautious approach [1]. - **Inflation Data Analysis** - Recent inflation data shows a generally mild performance, but there are "hot spots" with the quarterly core inflation rate recently reaching the upper end of the 2% to 3% target range [1]. - **RBA's Decision-Making Process** - Analysts believe that the RBA's monetary policy committee may choose to wait another month to obtain the latest inflation data, with cautious RBA Governor Philip Lowe likely advocating for patience [1].

Core Viewpoint - Westpac's chief economist, Luci Ellis, argues that there is no compelling reason for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to pause interest rate cuts, suggesting that the decision to wait for more data is unconvincing [1] Group 1 - Ellis states that the RBA will not learn anything new in the next five weeks that would alter its decision on interest rate cuts [1] - The central question revolves around whether the RBA Governor can hold a media conference to explain the rationale for delaying rate cuts for another five weeks, with a likely negative answer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) now anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower interest rates in July [1] Group 1 - The CBA's revised expectation indicates a shift in monetary policy outlook for the Australian economy [1]

金十数据5月27日讯，太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）预计，澳洲联储将在未来一年降息四次，将其官 方现金利率（OCR）从当前的3.85%降至2.75%左右的中性水平。PIMCO投资组合经理Aditya Thakur表 示，澳洲联储的经济预测显示，在经济增长放缓的同时，通胀正朝着目标迈进。不过，澳大利亚面临着 越来越大的风险。随着贸易紧张局势加剧和全球经济衰退开始出现，澳洲联储可能需要以更快的速度下 调OCR，并且随着时间的推移下调更多。 PIMCO：预计澳洲联储将大幅降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian economy is showing signs of weakness, which may support the Reserve Bank of Australia in lowering interest rates [1] Group 1 - ANZ economist Madeline Dunk indicates that there are signs that some of the tariffs announced by Trump may be canceled [1] - The main concern is how these potential changes will affect consumer confidence and business sentiment [1] - Current observations suggest a noticeable weakness in the business environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong employment data, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still has room to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Employment Data - Australia's employment data for April shows resilience in the job market [1] - The strong employment figures serve as a reminder of the market's elasticity [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation has returned to the RBA's target range, which influences monetary policy decisions [1] - High tariffs continue to pose downside risks to global economic growth [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the employment report, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week has slightly decreased from 90% to 80% [1]