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激光聚变的发展前景及投资机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-08 14:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the laser fusion industry [5]. Core Insights - Laser fusion technology has shown significant advancements, particularly in achieving a higher fusion triple product compared to other methods, indicating its potential for self-sustaining fusion reactions [15][19]. - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for laser fusion could potentially drop below $80/MWh, with optimal conditions suggesting a future target of $25/MWh [19]. - The report highlights the increasing interest and investment in laser fusion, with over 10 commercial companies pursuing this technology globally [58]. Summary by Sections Why Focus on Laser Fusion? - Laser fusion ranks first in the fusion triple product among various fusion technology routes, indicating its leading position in the field [15]. - The technology is transitioning from physical principle validation to engineering prototype development, with significant cost reduction potential if laser efficiency improves and target production costs decrease [19]. Investment Opportunities in Laser Fusion - More than 11 companies globally are focusing on laser fusion, with a notable emphasis on deuterium-tritium (DT) and hydrogen-boron (pB11) fuels [58]. - Inertia Enterprises aims for an energy gain greater than 18 to achieve energy balance in facilities, with higher targets for larger power plants [63]. - The main components of laser fusion systems include high-power pulsed lasers and energy systems that significantly influence performance [67][78]. Technological Developments - The report discusses the advancements in laser glass technology, which is crucial for laser devices, and highlights the progress made by Chinese institutions in this area [77]. - The "Shenguang-III" device is compared with the NIF, showcasing its capabilities and the ongoing improvements in laser technology [70]. Collaborations and Partnerships - Domestic research institutions are collaborating with listed companies to accelerate the commercialization of laser fusion technology, focusing on precision manufacturing and advanced laser components [85].
行业周报:美国CFS再获售电协议,环流四号装置落地上海-20250927
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-27 11:14
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of nuclear fusion devices is progressing steadily, with continuous order releases, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the sector [8][36] - The report highlights the potential for significant advancements in laser fusion technology, aiming for commercial operation by 2045 with a target cost of electricity below 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour [20][21] Summary by Sections Sector Review - In the week of September 22-26, 2025, the controllable nuclear fusion sector saw most sub-segments rise, with notable individual stock performances including HaHuan HuTong (+24.2%), YongDing Co. (+23.9%), and Shanghai Electric (+16.3%) [5][15] - The sub-segments that performed well included vacuum chambers and metal forgings (+10.7%), magnets (+9.1%), and power assemblies (+5.8%) [17][18] Industry Dynamics - China's laser fusion aims for ignition by 2028 and commercial operation by 2045, with a target cost of electricity below 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour [20] - The U.S. company CFS has secured a power sales agreement for its ARC power station, which is expected to be operational by 2030 with a capacity of 400 MW [23] - The China Fusion Energy Company has publicly launched its operations, focusing on the development of the HL-4 device in Shanghai, targeting commercial fusion energy by 2050 [25][28] Company Developments - Shanghai Electric has officially shipped the TF coil box for the CRAFT project, which will serve as a comprehensive research platform for superconducting magnet systems and other critical components [7][33] Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the steady progress in the development and construction of fusion devices, with a focus on core components such as magnets, main engines, and power supplies [36] - Beneficiary companies include those involved in superconducting materials, vacuum chambers, and power assembly components, which are expected to continue receiving orders due to their technological expertise [36]
“三步走”实现激光聚变商业运行
Jie Fang Ri Bao· 2025-09-22 10:06
解放日报讯(记者 徐瑞哲)"我们团队刚刚结束在神光Ⅱ激光装置上的第11轮大型实验,希望到 2028年实现点火。"21日,在上海张江科学会堂举行的2025浦江创新论坛上,中国科学院院士、上海交 通大学李政道研究所所长、著名物理学家张杰,在首场主旨演讲中透露"用激光聚变点亮未来"的"三步 走"计划。 2022年底,美国激光聚变"国家点火装置(NIF)"实现了输出大于输入的点火。按照美国能源发展 路线图,预计到2045年实现商业运行。张杰认为,美国国家点火装置中心的点火方案面临两个本征的物 理困难,其一是转换效率特别低,其二是不稳定。张杰在1997年就提出理论设想,可将压缩和加热两个 相互矛盾的物理过程,从同时进行变为分别进行。 过去6年间,张杰带领联合研究团队完成11轮大型物理实验,验证了分解物理过程的可行性。在快 速提高重复频率方面,美国方案重频瞄着10赫兹进行,"要想发电的话,频率越高越好,我们希望直接 达到50赫兹。"张杰希望到2030年前后,可以达到世界上最高的重复频率。 据悉,去年11月7日,张杰院士团队在位于嘉定的中国科学院上海光机所北区开始启动研究基地建 设,计划通过"三步走"在沪建成第一个激光聚变 ...
上海将建第一座激光聚变能电站:电价只有美国一半,2045 年商业运营
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 09:25
过去 6 年间,张杰带领团队开展了 11 轮大型物理实验,使用中国科学院上海光机所的"神光 2"升级装置,解决了并验证了所有重要物理问题。在最近完成 的第 11 轮实验中,团队获得的聚变三乘积达到世界最高水平,预计到 2028 年可实现点火。 张杰还指出,在实现点火后,团队将致力于提高增益和重复频率。目前美国的目标是 10 赫兹,而张杰团队希望直接达到 50 赫兹,因为对于发电而言,重复 频率越高越有利。在这一至关重要的 50 赫兹同频激光驱动技术上,团队正在进行 5 个方面的关键技术突破,并已取得显著进展。 2022 年 12 月 5 日,人类历史上首次实现激光聚变净增益,这被视为人类向终极能源 —— 聚变能迈进的关键一步。聚变能具有能量密度高、燃料来源近乎 无限、无放射性且运行绝对安全等显著优势。自 1972 年起,美国及全球科学家便致力于追求核聚变输出能量大于输入能量的目标,历经 50 年探索,终于取 得突破。 据IT之家了解,实现这一目标的是美国国家点火装置(NIF),作为世界上最大的激光聚变装置,代表了人类工程技术的极限。在实现净增益后,美国科学 家在提高增益效益的同时,开始着手高重频技术研发。目前 ...