Z箍缩技术落地有望大幅拉动驱动器、聚变靶与爆室、深次临界裂变包层等领域的投 资。Z箍缩主要由驱动器、聚变靶与爆室、深次临界裂变包层等构成，驱动器选择直线变压 器（LTD）技术路线，采用"分而治之"的设计思想，合理降低了器件的功率要求。涉及的关 键技术主要包括高产额聚变靶设计技术、重复频率大电流驱动器设计技术、次临界能源堆设 计技术以及换靶机构和爆室设计技术。彭先觉院士提出3个发展阶段的任务目标，预计2040 年实现Z箍缩技术的商业化发电。1）关键技术攻关阶段（2024—2030年）。针对Z箍缩的3 项关键技术同步开展攻关，主要是聚变点火、长寿命重频驱动器和深度次临界能源包层； 2）工程演示阶段（2031—2040年）。2035年建成1000兆瓦级热功率的池式综合试验堆，采 民生证券近日发布可控核聚变行业深度：2025年7月聚变工业协会（FIA）发布《2025年 全球聚变行业》报告显示，过去5年全球聚变行业呈爆发式增长，总投资额从2021年的19亿 美元飙升至97亿美元，仅去年一年就新增26亿美元。这一增长态势，充分彰显了投资者信心 的成熟、聚变技术的突破以及供应链的快速整合。同时，2030年代被行业普遍视为聚 ...

可控核聚变行业深度 聚变时代加速到来，Z 箍缩路线走进主流视野 2025 年 09 月 10 日 ➢ 可控核聚变时代加速到来，2030 年为商业化时期。可控核聚变因为原料丰 富、清节高效、安全性高等优势，被公认为人类的终极能源。但鉴于其技术要求 苛刻，给人遥不可及的感觉，业内曾戏称，核聚变距离商业实现永远有 50 年， 也就是"50 年悖论"。但 2025 年 7 月聚变工业协会（FIA）发布《2025 年全球聚 变行业》报告显示，过去 5 年全球聚变行业呈爆发式增长，总投资额从 2021 年 的 19 亿美元飙升至 97 亿美元，仅去年一年就新增 26 亿美元。这一增长态势， 充分彰显了投资者信心的成熟、聚变技术的突破以及供应链的快速整合。同时， 2030 年代被行业普遍视为聚变商业化关键期。 ➢ 惯性约束技术进展飞快，尤其是 Z 箍缩技术凭借安全性、经济性、持久性和 环境友好性等方面的优势表现亮眼。我国聚变技术过往以磁约束托卡马克为主， 惯性约束较少进入公众视野。但根据《2025 年全球聚变行业》数据显示，惯性 约束成为仅次于磁约束的技术路线，其中 Z 箍缩技术凭借安全性、经济性、持久 性和环境友好性等方 ...

来源：严为民 还有就是九月中旬大洋彼岸美联储议息会议，降息的概率已非常大了，受此影响整个以美元计价的商品可能会迎来比较大的机会，我们一起期待，祝朋友们 周末愉快，下周继续并肩战斗。 *本文由申港证券股份有限公司投资顾问严为民（执业编号：S1660624070009）编辑整理，内容仅代表个人观点，不构成任何买卖建议。投资有风险，入市 需谨慎！ 昨天市场的企稳迹象已经比较明显了，因为上涨的家数和下跌的家数一比较，很多觉得市场的情绪已经基本稳住了。 你记住一点，所有不管赚的或亏的，卖出来的钱很可能不会离开这个股市，这是非常重要的一个"慢牛"思维，这样来讲朋友们就能够理解为什么"牛市"总是 一轮又一轮，不是没有调整，而是调整之后总能创新高，原生动力是资金源源不断，同时内在的资金它不会离开，这一点非常重要。 这一次的震荡可能带来热点转换的契机，但是我要提醒大家，不是说所有的强势股都意味着结束了，这里面幅度没有那么大，那么在回调比较凶猛的背景之 下，这很有可能是一种"错杀"，比如说在AI芯片领域，硬件这个方面，很多优秀的企业，它的业绩可能是因为需求的爆炸性增长，那么同样这一波下跌也遭 遇了"错杀"。 还有前沿科技的轮动， ...

Group 1 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates may strengthen a weak dollar environment, catalyzing a new round of growth in resource commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, which could accelerate the performance of the non-ferrous sector [2] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META in September, focusing on edge AI and AR glasses, may lead to a sustainable trend in edge devices and AI ecosystems, making the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain, worth watching [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to reveal three clues: industries with high capital expenditure intensity and signs of marginal reduction; industries showing self-discipline or policy implementation; and industries relying on quotas to continuously improve profit margins [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3,800 points, indicating that the market may not stop here and could reach new highs [3] - The market's upward momentum is supported by the accumulation of profit-making effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds, validating the logic of upward recommendations based on overcoming loss resistance [5] - The market is likely to experience structural rotation, with active trading and policy expectations providing support, while the focus remains on growth sectors that have shown high prosperity in the first half of the year [6] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and significant upcoming events, leading to increased inflow of incremental funds [7] - The market is characterized by a "healthy bull" environment, where structural rotation among sectors is crucial for sustained growth, with a focus on technology growth sectors [8] - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasing its presence in the A-share market, contributing to the stability of the current "slow bull" market [9] Group 4 - The market is expected to primarily exhibit a volatile trend, with limited space for strong continuation, indicating a preference for structural rotation rather than a broad market rally [10] - The focus on defensive dividend sectors is increasing, as they may provide stability amid tightening funds and pressure from major shareholders [11] - The "slow bull" market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with a focus on maintaining a balanced approach between financial and technology sectors [13][14]

Core Insights - The controlled nuclear fusion technology landscape is diversifying, with significant developments in magnetic confinement, Z-pinch, and FRC technologies [1][2] - Current nuclear fusion projects are primarily funded by public capital, while planned projects are increasingly driven by private investment, indicating a shift towards a more varied technological approach [2] - Major tech companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are actively investing in nuclear fusion companies, highlighting the growing interest and competition in the global fusion race [1][2] Group 1: Technological Developments - The Tokamak device is expected to benefit from breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting materials, potentially achieving grid-connected power generation by the 2030s [3] - The performance of Tokamak devices is significantly influenced by the strength of the toroidal magnetic field, with a theoretical increase in fusion power by an order of magnitude for every 1.8 times increase in magnetic field strength [3] - The emergence of new fusion companies utilizing high-temperature superconducting solutions, such as CFS and TokamakEnergy, indicates a shift in technological capabilities [3] Group 2: Investment and Market Dynamics - The domestic Z-pinch hybrid reactor is anticipated to accelerate its development, with significant private capital interest in FRC devices [4] - Helion's FRC device has seen substantial funding, totaling approximately $96 million from 2021 to the first half of 2025, indicating strong investor confidence [4] - The potential for commercial nuclear fusion plants could lead to annual investments reaching several hundred billion yuan if successful [2] Group 3: Industry Growth and Opportunities - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is entering a rapid incubation phase, moving towards commercialization [5] - Increased technological advancements and funding are driving the industry forward, creating investment opportunities in upstream equipment and materials [6] - Key beneficiaries of this growth include companies involved in superconducting materials, vacuum chambers, power systems, and detection equipment [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 2.75% compared to the index's 4.18% [11] - The robotics sub-sector has the highest PE-TTM at 185.0x, indicating strong investor interest and growth potential [18] - The introduction of NVIDIA's Jetson Thor platform is expected to significantly enhance the capabilities of robotics, marking a shift towards "Physical AI" [30][33] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 17th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification [11] - The engineering machinery components sub-sector performed the best with a weekly increase of 7.72% [15] Valuation Metrics - The overall PE-TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 37.7x, with the robotics sub-sector leading at 185.0x [18] - The sub-sectors with the lowest PE-TTM include engineering machinery (20.5x) and rail transit (20.6x) [18] Key Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading robotics manufacturers that are accelerating product cost reduction and channel expansion, such as Dechang Electric and Zhongdali [3] - The advanced packaging industry is expected to benefit from high demand for key equipment, with companies like Shengmei Shanghai and Changchuan Technology recommended for investment [3] - The nuclear fusion sector is seeing increased activity, with companies like Xibu Superconductor and Hezhu Intelligent recommended due to ongoing technological advancements [3] Recent Developments - NVIDIA's Jetson Thor platform was launched on August 25, enhancing robotics capabilities significantly [30] - The platform is expected to drive the transition of robots from execution to intelligent agents capable of environmental awareness and autonomous decision-making [33] - The domestic market for robotics is anticipated to grow rapidly, especially if breakthroughs in domestic chips and large models continue [33]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the country's strategy for controllable nuclear fusion engineering and commercialization, indicating a three-step investment plan led by national will, focusing on semiconductor and AI development in the short term, infrastructure upgrades through mega projects in the medium term, and a long-term commitment to the energy revolution through controllable nuclear fusion [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established on July 22 in Shanghai, under the leadership of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) [2]. - The company will focus on overall design, technology verification, digital R&D, and the establishment of technology and capital operation platforms [2]. Group 2: Strategic Investment Plan - The national investment plan includes short-term acceleration of semiconductor and AI industries, medium-term infrastructure upgrades led by mega projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station, and long-term investments in controllable nuclear fusion [1][2]. - The roadmap indicates that by 2035, a fusion engineering experimental reactor is expected to achieve an output of 100-200 MW, with grid connection planned around 2050 [1][60]. Group 3: Technological Landscape - Controllable nuclear fusion is categorized into two main approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial confinement, with the Tokamak and stellarator representing magnetic confinement, and laser fusion and Z-pinch representing inertial confinement [1][3]. - The Tokamak route is currently the most mature and mainstream globally, with significant breakthroughs achieved by China, including the "China Circulation No. 3" device reaching temperatures of 117 million degrees Celsius for ions and 160 million degrees Celsius for electrons [1][2]. Group 4: International Comparison - The U.S. National Ignition Facility achieved laser fusion ignition in 2022, but its energy output remains significantly lower than the total energy consumed by the system [1][6]. - Both China and the U.S. are pursuing different technological routes, with China focusing on high-temperature superconducting Tokamak technology due to its rare earth resource advantages, while U.S. companies are increasingly promoting inertial confinement methods [1][2][41]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The commercial progress of controllable nuclear fusion is expected to break free from the "50 years" curse, with initial commercialization potentially achievable within a decade [2][60]. - The private sector is also seeing increased investment, with startups like Energy Singularity aiming to build high-temperature superconducting Tokamak devices by 2027, targeting an energy gain of Q>10 [1][58].

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment sector is rated as "stronger than the market" with a performance increase of 3.21% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index's increase of 2.37% during the week of August 11-15, 2025 [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid commercialization of humanoid robots, with significant advancements in hardware and collaboration within the supply chain, particularly noting the performance of Yush Robot at the World Humanoid Robot Games [3][32]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing growth due to strategic acquisitions, such as Zhengfan Technology's acquisition of Han Jing Semiconductor, which aims to enhance technology and market reach [3][36]. - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is seeing increased activity, with new bidding and winning projects indicating a shift from laboratory research to engineering applications [3][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Performance - The mechanical equipment sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a weekly increase of 3.21% [11]. - The sub-sector of other automation equipment showed the best performance with a 12.1% increase [5][15]. Key Company Developments - Yush Robot showcased its advanced humanoid robots at the World Humanoid Robot Games, demonstrating superior hardware capabilities and algorithmic advancements [3][30][32]. - Zhengfan Technology's acquisition of Han Jing Semiconductor for 1.12 billion RMB aims to leverage complementary technologies and expand market access [3][36]. - The report includes a summary of key companies' performance in the first half of 2025, highlighting significant revenue and profit growth across various sectors [3][28]. Sector Trends - The report notes a general recovery in the valuation of the mechanical equipment sector, with a PE-TTM of 37.2x, and highlights the top-performing sub-sectors [3][18]. - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with Yush Robot's products achieving notable success in competitions, reflecting a mature hardware ecosystem [3][32]. - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is actively pursuing new projects, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [3][37].

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry has shown strong performance, with a 5.75% increase in the CITIC mechanical sector from August 4 to August 8, 2025, ranking second among all primary industries [1][2]. Industry Summary - **Mechanical Industry Performance**: The CITIC mechanical industry rose by 5.75%, with engineering machinery up 5.95%, general equipment up 6.97%, specialized equipment up 4.44%, instruments and meters up 4.29%, metal products up 4.31%, and transportation equipment up 7.58% [1][2]. - **Engineering Machinery Sales**: In July, total excavator sales reached 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Domestic sales were 7,306 units, up 17.2%, while exports were 9,832 units, up 31.9%. The data indicates significant improvement in both domestic and foreign sales compared to June [2]. - **Long-term Value in Engineering Machinery**: The domestic demand is supported by new requirements and policy initiatives, while foreign demand is driven by major manufacturers expanding their overseas market share, indicating long-term investment potential [2]. Investment Recommendations - **Engineering Machinery**: Recommended companies include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, Liugong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [5]. - **General Equipment**: Suggested companies include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group (forklifts), Haitan Precision, Haomai Technology, Nuwai Co., and Kede CNC (machine tools) [5]. - **Humanoid Robots**: Focus on segments with high technical barriers and low domestic production rates, such as assembly (Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent), PEEK structural components (Weike Technology, Fosa Technology), sensors (Hanwei Technology, Riying Electronics), and reducers (Hongchang Technology) [5]. - **3C Sector**: Companies to watch include Bozhong Precision and Quick Intelligent [5]. - **Semiconductor Equipment**: Notable companies include Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company [5]. - **Energy Equipment**: Key players include Xizhuang Co., Nuwai Co., Jereh Co., Zhongtai Co., and Fosta [5]. - **Scientific Instruments**: Companies like Wanyi Technology, Puyuan Precision, and Yulide are recommended [5]. - **Controlled Nuclear Fusion**: Suggested companies include Hezhong Intelligent and Wanyi Technology [5]. - **Other Specialized Equipment**: Companies to consider are Yindu Co. and Jingjin Equipment [5].

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power equipment industry, highlighting the recovery in wind and thermal power sectors and the potential of fusion energy storage [1][3] - Wind power is expected to see a revaluation of the value of complete machines, with offshore wind and export logic gradually becoming apparent [3][37] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers has reached a historical low but is anticipated to rebound as the pace of turbine size increase slows down [10][19] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional energy sources during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a significant increase in coal-fired power approvals expected in 2025 [38][42] - The energy storage market is accelerating its development, with a focus on both spot and ancillary service markets [3][37] - The report suggests that the nuclear fusion sector should be monitored closely for bidding rhythms and strategic positioning within the core industry chain [3][37] Group 3 - The offshore wind sector is poised for a resurgence, with a backlog of projects ready to commence construction, particularly in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces [27][28] - The report indicates that the high-voltage and direct current cable market is benefiting from the transition to higher voltage systems, with leading cable manufacturers likely to see improved margins [32][33] - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the wind power equipment sector, recommending specific stocks such as Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Cable [34][35]