【东财策略】每日复盘20260303 二、行业表现 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨幅前五位是石油石化 【东财策略】每日复盘20260303 一、市场概况 3月3日A股市场放量大跌，三大指数集体回调。 截至收盘，沪指跌1.43%收报4122点，深证成指跌3.07%，创业板指跌2.57%；两市成交额3.13万亿，较前一交易日 放量超1000亿。 全天上涨643家，下跌4807家。 二、行业表现 一、市场概况 3月3日A股市场放量大跌，三大指数集体回调。 截至收盘，沪指跌1.43%收报4122点，深证成指跌3.07%，创业板指跌2.57%；两市成交额3.13万亿，较前一交易日 放量超1000亿。 全天上涨643家，下跌4807家。 四、后市展望和思考 沪指高开低走后形成的套牢筹码和悲观情绪需要时间消化，若美伊冲突烈度延续，短期避险逻辑可能继续演绎。 但我们认为总体不必过度悲观：当前经济韧性及周期位置较2022年已有所改善，战争及高油价引发的输入型通胀 对AI硬件等资产实质冲击有限。 从结构上看，即便在今日普跌格局下，燃气轮机等供需格局扎实的高景气方向依然保持强势，供需具有支撑的高 景气核心资产依然是重要线索。 随着两 ...

2026年03月03日 版策 相关研究 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wanqxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 敢问梦想价值几何? -构建申万宏源策略"未来产业定价体系" 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 DCF 模型失效, 未来产业该如何定价? 随着 A 股包容性大幅提升, 传统上处于 Pre-IPO ● 阶段的早期科技企业，如今大量登陆二级市场。这些公司普遍：1）尚未盈利，甚至尚无 收入;2)不确定性高,技术路线远未收敛;3)梦想远大,无限可能。这些特征叠加,导 致传统 DCF 失效。本文通过构建"未来产业定价体系"，试图 ...

2026 年 3 月 1 日 行业研究 聚变登上春晚，Helion 宣布重大突破，国内多项目进展值得期待 建议关注：1、链主公司：合锻智能、联创光电、国光电气； 2、上游供应链：1）真空室及内部件：合锻智能、国光电气、安泰科技、派克 新材、久立特材、天工国际（H）；2）磁体系统：联创光电、永鼎股份、精达 股份；3）电源系统：王子新材、旭光电子、四创电子、赛晶科技（H）。4）低 温系统：中泰股份、杭氧股份、冰轮环境、雪人集团。 风险提示：产业进展不及预期风险，产业政策风险，产业链竞争加剧风险。 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 ——可控核聚变行业系列报告之五 要点 合肥夸父园区亮相央视春晚合肥分会场，看好聚变产业的发展确定性。 2 月 16 日央视春晚合肥分会场，合肥夸父园区亮相；中国工程院万元熙院士入镜，并提 出期许，"核聚变的'太阳'，必将点亮万家灯火"。夸父园区即"聚变堆主机 关键系统综合研究设施"，主要作用是为聚变实验堆和工程堆核心部件的研发及 建设保驾护航。万院士是合肥等离子体所的核心专家，也是国家重大科学工程东 方超环（EAST）装置的项目负责人。而 EAST 装置是世界上第一个实现全超导、 非圆截面的 ...

为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业 务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避 险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。(中国人民银行) 开年A股并购重组逾500起 硬科技赛道活跃度居前 2026年，A股并购重组市场延续高景气态势，呈现量质齐升、政策红利集中释放、产业筑基、控制权变 更活跃等特征，成为推动上市公司高质量发展和培育新质生产力的关键路径。截至2月25日，上市公司 年初以来首次披露的并购重组交易达507起，同比增加33起；合计金额约1300亿元。其中，重大资产重 组案例20起，与去年同期持平，交易规模整体保持稳健。硬科技领域持续成为并购重组主战场，市场结 构不断优化。分板块看，主板并购数量仍占主导，占比58.3%，但同比下降超7个百分点，体现传统行 业并购从规模扩张向精益整合转型；双创板块（创业板+科创板）占比提升至近38.9%，同比增加7个百 分点，半导体、人工智能、生物医药等硬科技细分领域活跃度突出；北交所占比2.77%，以"专精特 新"定位提供差异化补充。（人民财讯） 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for humanoid robots, AI applications, innovative drugs, and new consumption sectors [5][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth potential in humanoid robots, with a projected shipment of nearly 18,000 units globally by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 508% [5]. - AI applications are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's initiative to build a national computing network [5]. - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a shift towards platform capabilities, as evidenced by a significant partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at over $8 billion [9]. - New consumption trends are emerging, with adjustments in CPI statistics reflecting the inclusion of new categories such as dishwashers and medical beauty services [5]. Summary by Category Humanoid Robots - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Medium, stable growth anticipated - Key Data: IDC forecasts a shipment of nearly 18,000 humanoid robots by 2025, a 508% increase year-on-year [5]. AI Applications - Rating: Neutral + Overweight - Technical Indicators: Weak, but stabilizing - Growth Expectation: Medium, slight downward adjustment expected - Key Data: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the construction of a national computing network [5]. Innovative Drugs - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Low, upward revision expected - Key Data: Significant partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at over $8 billion, marks a new phase in China's innovative drug export strategy [9]. New Consumption - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Low, stable growth anticipated - Key Data: CPI adjustments include new consumption categories, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the unpredictable nature of the market and the importance of adaptability for entrepreneurs, especially during economic fluctuations [4][6]. - It emphasizes the significance of long-term strategies over short-term gains in entrepreneurship, highlighting the need for resilience and careful decision-making [8][11]. Financing and Market Conditions - The article reflects on the current state of financing, indicating a warming market compared to previous years, with a focus on how entrepreneurs navigated through capital winters [6][10]. - It mentions that many entrepreneurs faced significant challenges during the capital winter, including budget overruns and delays in project delivery, which led to critical adjustments in their business strategies [9][10]. Entrepreneurial Experiences - Entrepreneurs shared their experiences of overcoming financial difficulties, including instances where they had to halt projects due to cash flow issues and the importance of maintaining team morale during tough times [10][11]. - The article highlights the shift in focus for some companies from ambitious expansion plans to more sustainable, focused product development in response to market conditions [17][18]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes that the synthetic biology and AI sectors are gaining traction, with significant potential for growth as they align with national policies and market demands [12][21]. - It discusses the increasing interest from investors in sectors like biotechnology and industrial automation, indicating a shift in funding dynamics and a growing recognition of the long-term value of these industries [52][53]. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - The importance of strategic partnerships is emphasized, with examples of companies successfully collaborating with larger firms to enhance their operational capabilities and market reach [10][27]. - The article also mentions how companies are leveraging government support and resources to navigate challenging market conditions and secure funding [52][55].

用超长周期穿越技术波动，在行业最不拥挤的时候成为定价者，而不是追随者。 作者丨簪竹 来源丨 投中网 当多数地方产业基金仍在募资与出手之间摇摆时，上海已在多个关键赛道连续收获确定性回报。 无论是诞生于北京、深圳的硬科技独角兽，还是扎根本土的产业新星，上海国资的身影越来越多出现 在明星企业的股东名单中。"GPU芯片四小龙"齐聚资本市场，Minimax等AI明星登陆港股，印证了 上海在硬科技赛道的精准落子，而其"时间合伙人"的投资耐心则在生物医药领域当中尽显。 港股市场给出了最新注脚。2026年2月，生物医药板块情绪回暖，来自上海的宝济药业股价一度冲高 至150港元，较招股价上涨逾四倍。若将时间线拉回至去年12月，其上市首日便录得129%的涨幅。 站在结果回看，单个项目的账面回报当然值得欢呼，但其出手时点更加值得深入研究。过去几年，一 级市场快速降温，生物医药首当其冲：估值回调、募资趋紧、退出通道收缩，叠加行业从资本驱动转 向技术兑现，大量资金选择观望甚至撤退。真正仍在逆周期下注的长期资本，并不多见。 2024年3月，上海市国资委宣布设立总规模1000亿元的三大先导产业母基金，明确押注集成电路、生 物医药与人工智能 ...

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 马年春节即将到来，蛇年的行情已经接近尾声，整体来看，蛇年是投资机会较多的一年。以科技股大涨 为代表，很多科技板块有不俗的表现，例如芯片半导体、算力算法、人形机器人、固态电池、商业航 天、可控核聚变等等。 马年行情即将到来，且2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，在"十五五"规划纲要中明确提到的科技创新 方向仍然有望在马年获得不俗的表现。因此，马年科技股行情有望延续，科技股仍然是投资主线之一， 但不是唯一的主线。随着居民储蓄向资本市场大转移的加速，更多的资金通过直接开户入市或是买基金 入市，为市场带来更多的增量资金，这将会推动这轮行情的深化。因此，马年市场有望延续这轮慢牛长 牛行情。 从估值水平看，当前沪深300的市盈率约为15倍左右，低于历史平均估值，说明市场整体仍处于牛市中 场，还未进入中后期，市场的投资机会依然较多。马年，更多的板块有望参与轮动，包括新能源、军 工、有色金属这些"中登股"，以及部分传统白马股都会迎来一定的表现。 当前，春季攻势行情已逐步开启。近日A股市场结束了前期的调整，开始出现一定的反弹，市场成交量 也维持在2万亿元以上 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes embracing technology and focusing on the new economy within the machinery industry, highlighting significant investment opportunities in various sectors [1][3]. Human-Robot Sector - The humanoid robot industry is seen as a monumental opportunity driven by global technological iterations and domestic policy support, with a breakthrough expected in 2025 and initial stages of scaling in 2026 [5]. - Key components for humanoid robots include actuators, screws, reducers, sensors, motors, and lightweight structural parts, with a focus on core suppliers and technological iterations [35][36]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the urgent demand for low-orbit resources and satellite constellation networks, with significant contributions from both domestic policies and technological advancements [5][41]. - China is advancing national-level satellite constellation plans, aiming to deploy thousands of satellites in the coming decade [42]. Gas Turbine Industry - The demand for electricity is surging, particularly due to the growth of data centers, leading to a supply shortage of gas turbines. Major manufacturers are expanding their production capacity to meet this demand [5][58]. - The global gas turbine market is expected to see a significant increase in sales, with orders projected to rise from 58GW in 2024 to 71GW in 2025 [68]. Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is on the brink of commercialization, with global investments in the industry skyrocketing from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [75][83]. - The global nuclear fusion market is anticipated to reach $496.5 billion by 2030 and exceed $1 trillion by 2050, marking a critical period for investment [83]. General Equipment - The general equipment sector is expected to benefit from structural growth in downstream technology fields, despite current demand remaining subdued [5][10]. - The domestic industrial mother machine supply chain is anticipated to undergo significant localization efforts [5]. Low-altitude Economy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the development of the low-altitude economy, with supportive policies and pilot cities paving the way for accelerated growth in this sector [5][10]. Deep Sea Technology - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a crucial driver for the marine economy, with government reports emphasizing the need for high-quality development in this area [5]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is optimistic about both domestic replacement demand and growth in overseas markets, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [5][10].

Performance Insights - The proportion of companies with positive revenue growth on the North Exchange is high, indicating a stronger seasonal rally in spring. In 2025, 62% of companies reported positive revenue growth, while 48% reported positive net profit growth[12][14]. - The spring rally in 2025 saw a significant increase of +40.17% in the North Exchange 50 Index, supported by optimistic performance expectations[12][15]. Liquidity Factors - Improved liquidity is a key driver for the seasonal rally, with trading volumes in 2024 and 2025 starting from two consecutive days of increased trading volume. The average daily trading amount reached over 100 billion yuan in these years[16][17]. - The North Exchange's trading volume has shown significant fluctuations, but the North Exchange 50 Index's volatility has been relatively small, suggesting stable liquidity conditions[22]. Valuation Trends - Valuations have experienced a phase of correction before seasonal rallies, with the North Exchange's overall price-to-earnings ratio dropping from 55 times in September 2025 to 47 times currently, providing a foundation for potential rallies[26]. - Historical data shows that prior to the spring rallies, valuations were at relatively low levels, which attracted more investments and facilitated valuation recovery[23][26]. Market Dynamics - The spring rally is influenced by multiple factors, including concentrated policy expectations, thematic investment opportunities, and performance-driven market sentiment[5][6]. - The North Exchange has shown a decreasing "see-saw effect" with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating a growing recognition and acceptance of the North Exchange among investors[17]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as new energy, embodied intelligence, and emerging industries with unique business models that are scarce in the A-share market[15]. - Emphasize companies with strong financial indicators, high growth potential, and significant R&D investments to capitalize on the expected spring rally[15].