2025 年 10 月 14 日 原油：风偏改善，短线或继续反弹 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 资料来源：Platts，Augus，Kpler，Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 WTI11 月原油期货收涨 0.59 美元/桶，涨幅 1.00%，报 59.49 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收涨 0.59 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%，报 63.32 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收涨 0.10 元/桶，涨幅 0.02%， 报 453.80 元/桶。 1、成品油套利 | 产品 | 路线 | 状态 | 价差 | 市场情况补充说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 欧洲 ARA 地区调和组分成本优 | | | 欧洲→纽约 | Open | 1.67 | 势明显，但需考虑美国 RVO 合 | | | | | | 规成本 | | | 地中海→纽约 | Open | 1.35 | 地中海低硫汽油需要调和调整 | | 汽油 | | | | 至美国标准，运输成本较低 | | | 欧洲→墨西哥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. on energy imports from Canada is expected to increase crude oil costs for U.S. refiners, leading them to source crude from other regions, which will benefit Asian refining companies through improved margins from increased product exports [3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. and Asian Refiners - U.S. refiners, primarily processing heavy crude oil, will face higher raw material costs due to the tariff, potentially increasing costs by $6 to $8 per barrel [5]. - As a result, U.S. refiners may rely more on Asian product supplies, benefiting Asian refiners from the short-term increase in refining margins [4][5]. - However, the upward trend in margins for Asian refiners is expected to be temporary, as tightening global heavy crude supply will eventually raise processing costs for refiners worldwide [4]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The price differential between WTI low-sulfur and high-sulfur crude has narrowed since November of the previous year, indicating rising heavy crude prices and shrinking refining margins [4]. - The heavy-light crude price differential in Asia may also follow a similar trend in the second half of the year [4]. - The tariff could lead to increased competition among global refiners for heavy crude procurement, potentially erasing the cost advantages for Asian refiners [5]. Group 3: China's Fuel Export Outlook - In 2024, China's total exports of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel are projected to reach 36.7 million tons, a decrease of 12.6% from the previous year [7]. - The first batch of refined oil export quotas for 2025 announced by China is set at 1.9 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year [7]. - If the U.S. increases fuel imports from Asia, this situation may change in the short term [7].