原标题：国际能源署报告显示——供过于求加剧国际石油市场失衡 本报记者 王宝锟 国际能源署日前发布的8月份国际石油市场报告预计，2025年全球石油需求增速为68万桶/日，较上 月估值下调2万桶/日，2026年需求增速为70万桶/日。国际能源署将2025年全球石油供应增长预期上调 了37万桶/日，预计今年增幅为250万桶/日，2026年预期上调了62万桶/日，至190万桶/日。今明两年供 应增长远超需求，预计国际石油市场供求失衡将进一步加剧。 在众多石油产品中，航空燃油成为例外，夏季旅行旺季推动欧美航空煤油需求创历史新高。预计 2025年全球航油需求将增长2.1%，成为所有油品中增速最快的品类。尽管如此，2025年770万桶/日的需 求规模仍较2019年疫情前水平降低18万桶/日。 7月份全球石油供应量基本稳定在1.056亿桶/日，"欧佩克+"国家减产23万桶/日，但被"非欧佩克 +"产油国的产量增长所抵消。8月3日参与自愿减产的8个"欧佩克+"成员国同意于9月份额外增产54.7万 桶/日，这意味着自2023年11月达成的220万桶/日减产协议将全面解除，此举将推动"欧佩克+"产油国今 明两年石油产量分别增长11 ...

8月份全球原油加工量升至8560万桶/日的历史新高，预计2025年三季度同比增幅将达160万桶/日，远高 于今年上半年13万桶/日的平均增速。基于7月份全球炼油利润飙升至近15个月来高位的良好表现，今年 全球原油加工量预计将增长到8360万桶/日，同比增加67万桶/日，2026年预计将超过8400万桶/日，同比 增加47万桶/日。 6月份全球石油库存连续第五个月增长，环比增加2810万桶，库存量达到783.6亿桶，创下46个月来高 点。2025年二季度全球石油库存日均增加150万桶，其中，美国液态烃库存增幅达到90万桶/日，此外， 海上浮仓原油库存也有明显增长。6月，经合组织工业石油库存减少了2880万桶，至275.8亿桶，较去年 同期降低了8800万桶。 报告认为，当前国际石油市场暗流涌动。国际油价正受到快速变化的多重因素影响，特别是西方国家对 俄罗斯和伊朗这两个产油大国实施新制裁措施、美国威胁向俄罗斯原油主要买家施压等因素，都将严重 冲击石油贸易流向，全球经济增长放缓则将进一步制约石油需求增长。整个7月，英国北海布伦特原油 期货价格徘徊在70美元/桶上下，国际原油市场波动率骤降至历史低位附近。然而8月初随 ...

报告认为，当前国际石油市场暗流涌动。国际油价正受到快速变化的多重因素影响，特别是西方国家对 俄罗斯和伊朗这两个产油大国实施新制裁措施、美国威胁向俄罗斯原油主要买家施压等因素，都将严重 冲击石油贸易流向，全球经济增长放缓则将进一步制约石油需求增长。整个7月，英国北海布伦特原油 期货价格徘徊在70美元/桶上下，国际原油市场波动率骤降至历史低位附近。然而8月初随着"欧佩克 +"达成增产协议，市场预期年底前全球库存将出现增长，布伦特原油期货价格随后一度跌破67美元/桶 关口，此后一直在67美元/桶上下低位调整。 报告显示，2025年全球石油需求增长预期自年初以来，总计下调35万桶/日。主要经济体需求疲软，在 消费者信心持续低迷的背景下，需求大幅反弹的可能性渺茫。新兴及发展中经济体消费表现弱于预期。 经合组织国家消费增量不足，其中日本的石油需求处于数十年来的低点。 8月份全球原油加工量升至8560万桶/日的历史新高，预计2025年三季度同比增幅将达160万桶/日，远高 于今年上半年13万桶/日的平均增速。基于7月份全球炼油利润飙升至近15个月来高位的良好表现，今年 全球原油加工量预计将增长到8360万桶/日，同比增加6 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, indicating strong inflationary pressures due to recent tariff policies, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2]. - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.2%, and year-over-year, it rose by 3.3%, marking the fastest growth since February 2025 [1]. - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, also saw its largest increase since 2022, suggesting widespread inflationary pressures across various sectors [1]. Group 2 - Service prices led the increase, rising by 1.1%, the largest gain since March 2022, with notable increases in investment management, securities brokerage, and lodging prices [1]. - Commodity prices rose by 0.7%, driven primarily by a 1.4% increase in food costs, with fresh and dried vegetable prices surging nearly 39% in a single month [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will still implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the surprising PPI data, which may lead to a reassessment of future rate cut expectations [2]. Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuated significantly, with a recent drop to 147.31, reflecting the ongoing impact of economic data and central bank policy expectations on currency movements [1][3]. - Technical traders are advised to monitor the USD/JPY within the range of 145.80 to 149.00, as a breakout above the 200-day moving average could signal further upward movement towards the 151.50 target [3]. - Conversely, a downward break could lead to a target near the June low of 143.00, indicating potential volatility in the currency pair [3].

Group 1 - Oil traders are facing a tense situation as oil prices remain around $70 per barrel despite warnings of a potential market weakness from late this year until 2026 [1] - Energy giant Total (TTE.US) has warned of an oversupply issue as OPEC+ gradually lifts production cuts, while global economic growth slowdown is dragging down demand [1][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have raised their forecasts for oil supply surplus next year, with IEA predicting a surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1][4] Group 2 - A potential oversupply could help alleviate inflation and impact high-cost oil producers, which may please U.S. President Trump, who has called for lower oil prices [4] - Current key oil storage inventories remain low, reflecting a tight supply market, and refining margins for crude oil are significantly above seasonal norms, supporting ongoing demand [4] - The U.S. government forecasts a global oil supply increase of about 2.1 million barrels per day in Q4 compared to Q1, marking the largest quarterly increase since February [4] Group 3 - Signs of strong demand persist, with Vitol Group reporting a steady rise in jet fuel demand and U.S. weekly crude oil demand data reaching a new high for the year [7] - Historical data shows that demand forecasts are often revised upwards, suggesting that the anticipated oversupply may be smaller than expected [7] - From 2012 to 2024, IEA's demand forecasts have been adjusted upwards by an average of about 500,000 barrels per day [7] Group 4 - Despite the strong demand, JPMorgan's global commodities strategy head Natasha Kaneva warns that a significant oversupply may become evident once summer demand weakens [9] - Kaneva emphasizes that supply is increasing and inventory growth will eventually be reflected in visible stocks in OECD countries, such as the U.S., which are not yet priced into the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - Strong demand, particularly for aviation fuel, and low inventory are currently supporting oil prices, but analysts warn of a potential supply surplus of nearly 200 million barrels in the second half of 2025, which is not yet reflected in market pricing [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Oil prices have remained around $70 per barrel this summer, supported by strong demand and low inventory levels [1] - Major institutions like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have issued warnings about increasing supply surpluses [1] Group 2: Future Projections - A projected global oil supply surplus of 2 million barrels per day is expected in 2026, driven by OPEC+ easing production cuts and non-OPEC countries also reducing output [1] - The risk of oil price declines is anticipated to increase later this year as supply surpluses grow [1]

Group 1 - The EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil are unlikely to have a severe impact, making secondary sanctions by the US one of the few remaining economic pressures on the Kremlin [1][4] - The new sanctions lower the price cap on Russian crude oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, effective September 3, and include a mechanism to ensure it remains 15% below the average price of Russian oil [1][3] - A significant addition is the ban on importing refined products made from Russian crude oil, aimed at closing loopholes left by previous sanctions [1][2] Group 2 - The effectiveness of initial sanctions has been limited, as countries like India have significantly increased their imports of Russian oil due to discounts from the price cap [1][3] - In 2024, Russia's oil and petroleum product export revenue is projected to reach $192 billion, significantly higher than its defense budget of $110 billion [3] - The EU's new sanctions package includes an additional 105 vessels sanctioned for evading the initial price cap, bringing the total to 447 [4] Group 3 - Secondary sanctions proposed by Trump could impose a 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil unless a peace agreement is reached within 50 days [5][6] - The potential for secondary sanctions raises concerns about their effectiveness in the global energy market, as they could lead to increased oil prices and inflation, which the US does not want to see [7][8] - Despite escalating sanctions threats, both Russia and oil traders appear relatively unfazed at this time [8]

Group 1: Report Core View - Overnight crude oil oscillated and closed lower, with weakening momentum and a short - term bearish trend. Despite a temporary rebound due to improved risk appetite in the financial market, the overall tone is turning weak. Without new positive factors, there is a risk of further price decline [3] - Although it is the peak demand season from July to August, demand in China and the US has reached its peak with limited growth space and will face a seasonal decline, which is unfavorable for bulls [3] - EIA data shows that the operating rate and processing volume of US refineries are at their peak, and the demand for major oil products such as gasoline is weak, indicating that the peak - season logic may be over [3] - Global inventories are increasing, and the supply - demand balance is relatively stable. With OPEC+ increasing production and a decline in US demand after September, the fundamentals will weaken [3] - Geopolitical risks can only cause short - term disturbances, and there is a risk of a restart of the tariff war in trade negotiations [3] - The low inventory in the US is due to active destocking, and increased exports are squeezing OPEC+ market share, which may intensify future market competition [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - For the week ending July 11, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels (expected - 0.552 million barrels, previous value + 7.07 million barrels), strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.3 million barrels (previous value + 0.238 million barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.213 million barrels (previous value + 0.464 million barrels), gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels (expected - 0.952 million barrels, previous value - 2.658 million barrels), and refined oil inventory increased by 4.173 million barrels (expected + 0.199 million barrels, previous value - 0.825 million barrels) [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.366 million barrels per day from the previous week, and crude oil exports increased by 0.761 million barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [4] - The refinery operating rate was 93.9% (expected 94.5%, previous value 94.7%) [4] Group 3: EIA Weekly Data Review - The EIA data update showed a mixed situation, with an increase in transportation fuel inventory being more bearish, except for fuel oil whose inventory continued to hit multi - year lows [5] - US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels in a single week and is slightly below the 5 - year average. Refinery throughput decreased by 150,000 barrels per day, consistent with the 2024 seasonal normal level [5] - Fuel oil inventory decreased by 700,000 barrels, 27% lower than the 5 - year range; aviation fuel output remained high, driving a 570,000 - barrel increase in inventory in a single week [5] - As transportation fuel inventory continues to accumulate, the recent upward trend in refining profit margins along the US Gulf Coast may end, and gasoline and diesel prices may decline from current highs [6] Group 4: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - Brent crude oil M + 2 was at $68.52 on July 16, down $0.19 from the previous day and $1.67 from the previous week [7] - WTI crude oil M + 2 was at $65.19 on July 16, down $0.18 from the previous day and $1.78 from the previous week [7] - SC crude oil M + 2 was at 504.7 yuan on July 16, down 2.3 yuan from the previous day and 6.3 yuan from the previous week [7] - Dubai crude oil M + 2 was at $66.89 on July 16, down $0.23 from the previous day and $1.35 from the previous week [7] - Oman crude oil M + 2 was at $69.99 on July 16, down $0.34 from the previous day and $1.72 from the previous week [7] - Murban crude oil M + 2 was at $69.81 on July 16, down $0.29 from the previous day and $1.68 from the previous week [7] - EFS spread M + 2 was at $1.63 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.32 from the previous week [7] - Brent monthly spread (M + 2 - M + 3) was at $0.97 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.18 from the previous week [7] - Oman monthly spread (M + 2 - M - 3) was at $1.63 on July 16, down $0.26 from the previous day and down $0.31 from the previous week [7] - Dubai monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at $0.82 on July 16, down $0.08 from the previous day and down $0.21 from the previous week [7] - SC monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at 10.2 yuan on July 16, down 2.7 yuan from the previous day and up 5.8 yuan from the previous week [7] - SC - Dubai (M + 2) was at $3.6658 on July 16, up $0.0699 from the previous day and up $2.1228 from the previous week [7] - SC - Oman (M + 2) was at $0.6058 on July 16, up $0.0599 from the previous day and up $2.6028 from the previous week [7]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions - The announcement of airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities by President Trump has increased uncertainty in capital markets, with investors awaiting potential market movements [1] - Oil prices have risen approximately 10% over the past week, with Brent crude futures up 18% since June 10, reaching a high of $79.04 per barrel [3] - The rental prices for large oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz have more than doubled due to concerns over navigation risks, with rates for supertankers rising from under $20,000 to nearly $48,000 per day [3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with Oxford University estimating prices could rise to around $130 per barrel under severe conditions [3] - The U.S. is expected to experience increased inflation pressure, with estimates suggesting that every $10 increase in oil prices could raise inflation by 0.3%-0.4% [4] Group 3: Shifts in Energy Imports and Market Dynamics - Europe has increased its imports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., reducing reliance on the Middle East, while diesel and aviation fuel premiums in Europe have surged to 15-month highs [4] - The U.S. is less affected by these tensions as an energy net exporter, but faces economic slowdown and rising inflation pressures [4] Group 4: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - Despite predictions of gold prices potentially rising to $4,000 per ounce, gold prices have actually decreased by 2% since the onset of the conflict [4] - There has been a significant outflow from U.S. stock funds, with a net outflow of $18.43 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow in three months [5] - Central banks are shifting their focus from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, with gold currently making up only 3.5% of their reserves [5]

Group 1 - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a surge in European diesel and aviation fuel prices, reaching the highest levels in 15 months [1] - Since the escalation of hostilities last Friday, the premium of diesel over crude oil has increased by 60%, while the premium for aviation fuel has risen by 45% [1] - Concerns about potential disruptions in supply from the Gulf region, a major fuel source for Europe, are heightened ahead of the summer travel season [1]