Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "moderately bullish" outlook [4] Core View of the Report - After the correction of caustic soda, the basis has significantly converged, and the current valuation has reached a low level. In the medium to long term, if the situation in the Middle East does not ease in April, overseas refineries will increase production cuts, leading to a significant increase in domestic ethylene - based PVC production cuts, and causing passive production cuts of caustic soda through the chlor - alkali balance mechanism. The disruption of long - term supply in the Middle East has shifted some overseas demand to China, driving the recent recovery of caustic soda exports. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve, the futures price premium is not large, and the market is expected to run strongly. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 05 contract is 2442. The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 760, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2375, and the basis is - 67 [1] 2. Spot News - Major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have raised the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton since March 29, with an ex - factory price of 630 yuan/ton [2] 3. Market Condition Analysis - After the correction of caustic soda, the basis has significantly converged, and the 04 contract is basically at par with the spot. Considering the expected price increase of Weiqiao and the trend of 32% caustic soda converging to 50% caustic soda, the current valuation is at a low level. In the medium to long term, the Middle East situation affects the production of caustic soda and its exports. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve, and the market is expected to run strongly. It is necessary to continuously track overseas device dynamics and China's export signing situation [3] 4. Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last after April, and the recent price cut of liquid chlorine in Shandong has significantly raised the cost of caustic soda. The short - term oversupply situation of alumina in the demand side has not changed, and the overall demand is weak. The spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production reduction and load reduction is increasing after March. The weak spot pattern of caustic soda is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival, but later, caustic soda will face cost increase and large - scale production reduction. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions of the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and consider gradually building long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the futures price of the 03 contract was 1862, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 600, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was 13 [1] Spot News - On February 9, the price of liquid chlorine of Shandong Xinfa was reduced by 50 yuan, with the tank - truck ex - factory price at 1 - 100 yuan/ton [2] Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of shorting caustic soda profit was the strong liquid chlorine and the declining caustic soda cost. However, this logic will be challenged later as the short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not last after April. The recent 200 - yuan/ton price cut of liquid chlorine in Shandong has raised the caustic soda cost [3] - In the demand side, the short - term oversupply of alumina remains unchanged, and the expectation of production reduction suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. There is also incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later. Non - aluminum downstream is facing a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and export stockpiling is weak, so the overall demand is weak [3] - In the supply side, the spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production reduction and load reduction is increasing after March [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]